IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v91y2025ics0927538x25000848.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Corporate dividend behavior under uncertainty: A study of Chinese firms

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Chien-Chiang
  • Wang, Chih-Wei
  • Huang, Chun-Wei
  • Sharma, Susan Sunila

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) on the cash dividend policies of Chinese firms from 2000 to 2019. The findings reveal that TPU negatively influences firms' cash dividend policies, prompting firms to reduce cash dividends under heightened uncertainty. Furthermore, firms and industries in different regions exhibit varied responses to TPU's effects on cash dividends. In R&D-intensive firms, the study finds a consistent negative impact of TPU on cash dividends, regardless of whether the firms face financial constraints. Conversely, firms with reduced R&D spending and financial constraints tend to increase cash dividends under TPU, potentially due to agency-related issues. Overall, TPU significantly affects firms' cash dividend policies, and these effects remain robust when accounting for R&D intensity, financial constraints, and agency problems. This study provides valuable insights, highlighting the importance of incorporating cash dividend policies into corporate strategies during periods of high uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Huang, Chun-Wei & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2025. "Corporate dividend behavior under uncertainty: A study of Chinese firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:91:y:2025:i:c:s0927538x25000848
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102747
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X25000848
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102747?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    2. He, Wen & Ng, Lilian & Zaiats, Nataliya & Zhang, Bohui, 2017. "Dividend policy and earnings management across countries," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 267-286.
    3. Kim, JooMan & Yang, Insun & Yang, Taeyong & Koveos, Peter, 2021. "The impact of R&D intensity, financial constraints, and dividend payout policy on firm value," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    4. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Sultanuzzaman, Md Reza & Yahya, Farzan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "Exploring the complex interplay of green finance, business cycles, and energy development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    6. Bradford, William & Chen, Chao & Zhu, Song, 2013. "Cash dividend policy, corporate pyramids, and ownership structure: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 445-464.
    7. Attig, Najah & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Zheng, Xiaolan, 2021. "Dividends and economic policy uncertainty: International evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    9. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Su, Zhong-qin & Fung, Hung-Gay & Huang, Deng-shi & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2014. "Cash dividends, expropriation, and political connections: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 260-272.
    11. Ivalina Kalcheva & Karl V. Lins, 2007. "International Evidence on Cash Holdings and Expected Managerial Agency Problems," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1087-1112.
    12. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez‐de‐Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2000. "Agency Problems and Dividend Policies around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 1-33, February.
    13. Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Swenson, Deborah L., 2017. "Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China's WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 20-36.
    14. Nick Bloom, 2007. "Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 250-255, May.
    15. Hyuk Chung, 2017. "R&D investment, cash holdings and the financial crisis: evidence from Korean corporate data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(55), pages 5638-5650, November.
    16. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    17. Dung Viet Tran, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank dividend policy," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(3), pages 339-361, September.
    18. Gul, Ferdinand A. & L. Tsui, Judy S., 1997. "A test of the free cash flow and debt monitoring hypotheses:: Evidence from audit pricing," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-237, December.
    19. Denis, David J. & Osobov, Igor, 2008. "Why do firms pay dividends? International evidence on the determinants of dividend policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 62-82, July.
    20. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    21. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    22. Lu Guo & WeiYa Long & Zhimin Dai, 2021. "Manufacturing R&D investment efficiency and financing constraints: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(6), pages 676-687, February.
    23. Shao, Hanhua & Wang, Yaning & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wen, Huwei, 2024. "How does political stability affect renewable energy finance? International evidence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    24. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Zhichao Zhang & Xinwei Zheng, 2015. "Some Hypotheses on Commonality in Liquidity: New Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(5), pages 915-944, September.
    25. Alli, Kasim L & Khan, A Qayyum & Ramirez, Gabriel G, 1993. "Determinants of Corporate Dividend Policy: A Factorial Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 523-547, November.
    26. Xin Su & Shengshi Zhou & Rui Xue & Jinfang Tian, 2020. "Does economic policy uncertainty raise corporate precautionary cash holdings? Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(5), pages 4567-4592, December.
    27. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Lin, Weizheng & Chiu, Yi-Hsin, 2025. "The role of happiness in bank risk: An international cross-country analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    28. Brown, James R. & Martinsson, Gustav & Petersen, Bruce C., 2012. "Do financing constraints matter for R&D?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1512-1529.
    29. Oswald, Dennis & Young, Steven, 2008. "Share reacquisitions, surplus cash, and agency problems," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 795-806, May.
    30. Tao Huang & Fei Wu & Jin Yu & Bohui Zhang, 2015. "Political risk and dividend policy: Evidence from international political crises," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 46(5), pages 574-595, June.
    31. Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H. & Pham, Toan M. & Walter, Terry S., 2011. "The information content of cash dividend announcements in a unique environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 606-612, March.
    32. Xu, Nianhang & Chen, Qinyuan & Xu, Yan & Chan, Kam C., 2016. "Political uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 276-295.
    33. Lang, Larry H. P. & Stulz, ReneM. & Walkling, Ralph A., 1991. "A test of the free cash flow hypothesis*1: The case of bidder returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 315-335, October.
    34. Najah Attig & Narjess Boubakri & Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami, 2016. "The Global Financial Crisis, Family Control, and Dividend Policy," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 45(2), pages 291-313, May.
    35. Dongmei Li, 2011. "Financial Constraints, R&D Investment, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 2974-3007.
    36. Wang, Kai-Hua & Xiong, De-Ping & Mirza, Nawazish & Shao, Xue-Feng & Yue, Xiao-Guang, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk uncertainty strengthen or depress cash holdings of oil enterprises? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    37. Zhong He & Xiaoyan Chen & Wei Huang & Rulu Pan & Jing Shi & Tom Smith, 2016. "External finance and dividend policy: a twist by financial constraints," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(4), pages 935-959, December.
    38. Redding, Lee S., 1997. "Firm Size and Dividend Payouts," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 224-248, July.
    39. Gugler, Klaus, 2003. "Corporate governance, dividend payout policy, and the interrelation between dividends, R&D, and capital investment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1297-1321, July.
    40. He, Feng & Lucey, Brian & Wang, Ziwei, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and its impact on the stock market -evidence from China-US trade conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    41. Deng, Lu & Li, Sifei & Liao, Mingqing & Wu, Weixing, 2013. "Dividends, investment and cash flow uncertainty: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 112-124.
    42. Leuz, Christian & Nanda, Dhananjay & Wysocki, Peter D., 2003. "Earnings management and investor protection: an international comparison," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 505-527, September.
    43. Aivazian, Varouj A. & Booth, Laurence & Cleary, Sean, 2006. "Dividend Smoothing and Debt Ratings," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 439-453, June.
    44. Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from BRIC countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 189-200.
    45. Brown, James R. & Petersen, Bruce C., 2011. "Cash holdings and R&D smoothing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 694-709, June.
    46. Buchanan, Bonnie G. & Cao, Cathy Xuying & Liljeblom, Eva & Weihrich, Susan, 2017. "Uncertainty and firm dividend policy—A natural experiment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 179-197.
    47. Noronha, Gregory M. & Shome, Dilip K. & Morgan, George E., 1996. "The monitoring rationale for dividends and the interaction of capital structure and dividend decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 439-454, April.
    48. John Lintner, 1964. "Optimal Dividends and Corporate Growth under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 78(1), pages 49-95.
    49. Aggarwal, Raj & Kyaw, NyoNyo Aung, 2010. "Capital structure, dividend policy, and multinationality: Theory versus empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 140-150, March.
    50. Gul, Ferdinand A., 1999. "Growth opportunities, capital structure and dividend policies in Japan," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 141-168, June.
    51. Sasidharan, Subash & Jijo Lukose, P.J. & Komera, Surenderrao, 2015. "Financing constraints and investments in R&D: Evidence from Indian manufacturing firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 28-39.
    52. Yilei Zhang, 2009. "Are Debt and Incentive Compensation Substitutes in Controlling the Free Cash Flow Agency Problem?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(3), pages 507-541, September.
    53. He, Zhaozhao & Wintoki, M. Babajide, 2016. "The cost of innovation: R&D and high cash holdings in U.S. firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 280-303.
    54. Goodell, John W. & Goyal, Abhinav & Urquhart, Andrew, 2021. "Uncertainty of uncertainty and firm cash holdings," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    55. Bae, Kee-Hong & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Zheng, Xiaolan, 2021. "Board Reforms and Dividend Policy: International Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 1296-1320, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Xiaoqi & Chih-Chieh Chris, Hsieh & Tsang, Albert & Xiang, Yi, 2022. "Cross-border enforcement of securities laws and dividend payouts," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6).
    2. Yang, Bao & Chou, Hsin-I. & Zhao, Jing, 2020. "Innovation or dividend payout: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 180-203.
    3. Athira, A. & Ramesh, Vishnu K., 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and tax avoidance: International evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Hossain, Ashrafee & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar, 2025. "Political sentiment and corporate payouts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Christos Floros & Emilios Galariotis & Konstantinos Gkillas & Efstathios Magerakis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2024. "Time-varying firm cash holding and economic policy uncertainty nexus: a quantile regression approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(2), pages 859-895, October.
    6. El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Mansi, Sattar & Wang, He (Helen), 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, institutional environments, and corporate cash holdings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Hussain Haroon & Md-Rus Rohani & Al-Jaifi Hamdan Amer & Hussain Rana Yassir, 2022. "Determinants of Corporate Pay-Out Policy and the Moderating Effects of Firm's Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(3), pages 65-101, September.
    8. Paul McGuinness & Kevin Lam & João Vieito, 2015. "Gender and other major board characteristics in China: Explaining corporate dividend policy and governance," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 989-1038, December.
    9. Wang, Xiaoyu & Long, Zhineng & Zhao, Xiangfang, 2024. "Merchant guild culture and cash holdings: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Aziz, Saqib & El-Khatib, Rwan & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and dividend payout," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Attig, Najah & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Zheng, Xiaolan, 2021. "Dividends and economic policy uncertainty: International evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Haoyuan Ding & Bo Pu & Tong Qi & Kai Wang, 2022. "Valuation effects of the US–China trade war: The effects of foreign managers and foreign exposure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 662-683, July.
    13. Booth, Laurence & Zhou, Jun, 2017. "Dividend policy: A selective review of results from around the world," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-15.
    14. Zhang, Xiang & Zhou, Han, 2022. "The effect of market competition on corporate cash holdings: An analysis of corporate innovation and financial constraint," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Goyal, Abhinav & Jategaonkar, Shrikant P. & Muckley, Cal B., 2020. "Why do privatized firms pay higher dividends?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Javadi, Siamak & Mollagholamali, Mohsen & Nejadmalayeri, Ali & Al-Thaqeb, Saud, 2021. "Corporate cash holdings, agency problems, and economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Yiping Sun & Xiangyi Li & Tengyuan Zhang & Jiawei Fu, 2022. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Exacerbate Environmental Pollution?—Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-21, February.
    18. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. López-Iturriaga, Félix J. & Santana Martín, Domingo Javier, 2019. "The payout policy of politically connected firms: Tunnelling or reputation?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    20. Yang, Zhihao & Hong, Junjie, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and energy intensity: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:91:y:2025:i:c:s0927538x25000848. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.