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Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?

Author

Listed:
  • Anton E. Bobrov
  • Rupal Kamdar

  • Caroline M. Paulson
  • Aditi Poduri
  • Mauricio Ulate

Abstract

Monetary policy in the United States is determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a decisionmaking body that includes regional representation. Evidence shows that the economic conditions in their respective regions have influenced how presidents of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Districts voted at the FOMC meetings in past decades. Specifically, a 1 percentage point higher unemployment rate in a District relative to the national average is associated with a 9 percentage point higher probability of dissenting in favor of looser policy during the FOMC vote.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton E. Bobrov & Rupal Kamdar & Caroline M. Paulson & Aditi Poduri & Mauricio Ulate, 2025. "Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(13), pages 1-5, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:100058
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathon Hazell & Juan Herreño & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2022. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1299-1344.
    2. Daniel L. Thornton & David C. Wheelock, 2014. "Making sense of dissents: a history of FOMC dissents," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(3), pages 213-227.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sophia Kazinnik & Tara M. Sinclair, 2025. "FOMC In Silico: A Multi-Agent System for Monetary Policy Decision Modeling," Working Papers 2025-005, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

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