IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finsta/v80y2025ics157230892500066x.html

Negative nominal rates

Author

Listed:
  • Dávila, Julio
  • Lukmanova, Elizaveta

Abstract

We show the possibility of negative nominal interest rates in a general equilibrium model with financial intermediation. We establish that the decentralization of the planner’s steady state requires a zero nominal lending rate on bank loans to firms, as well as a negative nominal lending rate on central bank loans to banks. We also find that implementing the planner’s steady state requires firms to be bound by collateral requirements that limit their leverage. The key driver of the results is the very defining characteristic of banking, namely banks’ ability to create money by opening deposit accounts that borrowers can withdraw from, and that are unbacked by household deposits. Our results can be used to rationalize the ultra-low rates policy implemented by major central banks in the second half of the 2010’s and early 2020’s.

Suggested Citation

  • Dávila, Julio & Lukmanova, Elizaveta, 2025. "Negative nominal rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:80:y:2025:i:c:s157230892500066x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101437
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S157230892500066X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101437?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209.
    2. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    4. Paul Gomme & B. Ravikumar & Peter Rupert, 2011. "The Return to Capital and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 262-278, April.
    5. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2019. "Life below Zero: Bank Lending under Negative Policy Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3728-3761.
    6. Christian Bittner & Diana Bonfim & Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens & Carla Soares, 2022. "The Augmented Bank Balance-Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 149, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    7. Mauricio Ulate, 2021. "Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 1-40, January.
    8. Demiralp, Selva & Eisenschmidt, Jens & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "Negative interest rates, excess liquidity and retail deposits: Banks’ reaction to unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2013. "The Procyclical Effects of Bank Capital Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 452-490.
    10. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    11. Margherita Bottero & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea Polo & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Enrico Sette, 2019. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/044, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2022. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates: A New Monetarist DSGE Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 134-167, July.
    13. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    14. Berentsen, Aleksander & Camera, Gabriele & Waller, Christopher, 2007. "Money, credit and banking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 171-195, July.
    15. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
    16. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    17. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2014. "The Interaction between Capital Requirements and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1073-1112, September.
    18. Jesse Bricker & Lisa J. Dettling & Alice Henriques Volz & Joanne W. Hsu & Lindsay Jacobs & Kevin B. Moore & Sarah Pack & John Edward Sabelhaus & Jeffrey P. Thompson & Richard Windle, 2017. "Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2013 to 2016: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 103(3), September.
    19. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    20. Mendicino, Caterina & Nikolov, Kalin & Suarez, Javier & Supera, Dominik, 2020. "Bank capital in the short and in the long run," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 64-79.
    21. Gauti B Eggertsson & Ragnar E Juelsrud & Lawrence H Summers & Ella Getz, 2024. "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(4), pages 2201-2275.
    22. Cerqueiro, Geraldo & Ongena, Steven & Roszbach, Kasper, 2020. "Collateral damaged? Priority structure, credit supply, and firm performance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    23. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2021. "Banks and Negative Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 201-218, November.
    24. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 33(96), pages 531-586.
    25. Thomas Philippon, 2015. "Has the US Finance Industry Become Less Efficient? On the Theory and Measurement of Financial Intermediation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1408-1438, April.
    26. Kumhof, Michael & Wang, Xuan, 2021. "Banks, money, and the zero lower bound on deposit rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    27. Anya V. Kleymenova & Lori Leu & Cindy M. Vojtech, 2024. "Is This Time Different: How Are Banks Performing during the Recent Interest Rate Increases Compared to 2004–2006?," FEDS Notes 2024-04-12-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & John Kandrac, 2018. "Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2018/131, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    30. Frederic Malherbe, 2020. "Optimal Capital Requirements over the Business and Financial Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 139-174, July.
    31. Amzallag, Adrien & Calza, Alessandro & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Sousa, João, 2019. "Monetary policy transmission to mortgages in a negative interest rate environment," Working Paper Series 2243, European Central Bank.
    32. Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1998. "How Important Is Precautionary Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 410-419, August.
    33. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi & Paul Schmelzing, 2024. "Long-Run Trends in Long-Maturity Real Rates, 1311–2022," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(8), pages 2271-2307, August.
    34. Jens Eisenschmidt & Frank Smets, 2019. "Negative Interest Rates: Lessons from the Euro Area," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 2, pages 013-042, Central Bank of Chile.
    35. Coulier, Lara & Gardó, Sándor & Klaus, Benjamin & Lenoci, Francesca & Pancaro, Cosimo & Reghezza, Alessio & Bräutigam, Marcel & Roulund, Rasmus Pank & Stania, Gernot & Stizi, Nina, 2023. "Assessing risks from euro area banks’ maturity transformation," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    36. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 17-29.
    37. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    38. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    39. Morten Linnemann Bech & Aytek Malkhozov, 2016. "How have central banks implemented negative policy rates?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    40. Basten, Christoph & Mariathasan, Mike, 2023. "Interest rate pass-through and bank risk-taking under negative-rate policies with tiered remuneration of central bank reserves," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    41. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    42. Boucinha, Miguel & Burlon, Lorenzo, 2020. "Negative rates and the transmission of monetary policy," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    43. Ampudia, Miguel & Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2022. "Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 49-67.
    44. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Holton, Sarah, 2022. "Is there a zero lower bound? The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 885-907.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    2. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Policy, Monetary & Stability, Financial & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas , 2023. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    3. Berentsen, Aleksander & van Buggenum, Hugo & Ruprecht, Romina, 2025. "On the negatives of negative interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Marcel Barmeier, 2022. "The new normal: bank lending and negative interest rates in Austria (Marcel Barmeier)," Working Papers 242, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kok, Christoffer & Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Reversal interest rate and macroprudential policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Onofri, Marco & Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2023. "The effectiveness of a negative interest rate policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 16-33.
    7. Jorien Freriks & Jan Kakes, 2021. "Bank interest rate margins in a negative interest rate environment," Working Papers 721, DNB.
    8. Freriks, Jorien & Kakes, Jan, 2024. "Lessons from low interest rate policy: How did euro area banks respond?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2021. "Banks and Negative Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 201-218, November.
    10. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    11. Joscha Beckmann & Klaus-Jürgen Gern & Nils Jannsen, 2022. "Should they stay or should they go? Negative interest rate policies under review," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 885-912, October.
    12. Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Is the negative interest rate policy effective?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 75-86.
    13. Mauricio Ulate, 2021. "Alternative Models of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Normal and Negative Territory," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 3-34, March.
    14. Grandi, Pietro & Guille, Marianne, 2023. "Banks, deposit rigidity and negative rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2023. "Firm behaviour under negative deposit rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Bats, Joost V. & Giuliodori, Massimo & Houben, Aerdt C.F.J., 2023. "Monetary policy effects in times of negative interest rates: What do bank stock prices tell us?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    17. Aleksander Berentsen & Hugo van Buggenum & Romina Ruprecht, 2020. "On the negatives of negative interest rates and the positives of exemption thresholds," ECON - Working Papers 372, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    18. Present, Thomas & Simoens, Mathieu & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2023. "European bank margins at the zero lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Cynthia Balloch & Yann Koby & Mauricio Ulate, 2022. "Making Sense of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 2022-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Laeven, Luc & Maddaloni, Angela & Mendicino, Caterina, 2022. "Monetary policy, macroprudential policy and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2647, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:80:y:2025:i:c:s157230892500066x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.