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Citations for "Efficient tests of stock return predictability"

by Campbell, John & Yogo, Motohiro

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  1. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2004. "The performance of international portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 817, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Daniela Osterrieder & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2015. "Unbalanced Regressions and the Predictive Equation," CREATES Research Papers 2015-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  3. Polk, Christopher & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo & Campbell, John Y., 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 9887622, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
  5. Jiang, Danling, 2013. "The second moment matters! Cross-sectional dispersion of firm valuations and expected returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3974-3992.
  6. Lubos Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1583-1628, 08.
  7. Tom Engsted, 2016. "Fama On Bubbles," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 370-376, 04.
  8. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2011. "Improving the predictability of real economic activity and asset returns with forward variances inferred from option portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 475-495, June.
  9. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2007. "Stock returns, dividend yield, and book-to-market ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 455-475, February.
  10. Charles P. Thomas, 2006. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp162, IIIS.
  11. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2010. "Regime Specific Predictability in Predictive Regressions," MPRA Paper 29190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Chen, Haiqiang, 2015. "Robust Estimation And Inference For Threshold Models With Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(04), pages 778-810, August.
  13. Miguel A. Ferreira & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole," NBER Working Papers 14571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Missaka Warusawitharana & Jessica A. Wachter, 2009. "What is the chance that the equity premium varies over time? evidence from predictive regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2012. "Prévoir sans persistance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00820714, HAL.
  16. Nuno Silva, 2013. "Equity Premia Predictability in the EuroZone," GEMF Working Papers 2013-22, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  17. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 13805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2007. "Modeling Financial Return Dynamics by Decomposition," Working Papers w0095, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  19. Angelidis, Timotheos & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2008. "Idiosyncratic volatility and equity returns: UK evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 539-556, June.
  20. Seema Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2015. "The Financial Econometrics of Price Discovery and Predictability," Monash Economics Working Papers 06-15, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  21. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, 02.
  22. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005. "Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," NBER Working Papers 11468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Fukang Zhu & Zongwu Cai & Liang Peng, 2014. "Predictive regressions for macroeconomic data," Papers 1404.7642, arXiv.org.
  24. Erik Hjalmarsson & Par Osterholm, 2007. "A residual-based cointegration test for near unit root variables," International Finance Discussion Papers 907, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2006. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," 2006 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  26. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
  27. Christopher Polk & Samuel Thompson & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "New Forecasts of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 10406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Francesca Carrieri & Vihang Errunza & Sergei Sarkissian, 2004. "Industry Risk and Market Integration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 207-221, February.
  29. Meredith J. Beechey & Erik Hjalmarsson & Par Osterholm, 2008. "Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated," International Finance Discussion Papers 953, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Revisiting dividend yield dynamics and returns predictability: Evidence from a time-varying ESTR model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 870-883, August.
  31. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2012. "Some curious power properties of long-horizon tests," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 81-91.
  32. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Mwamba, Muteba, 2015. "A multivariate model for the prediction of stock returns in an emerging market: A comparison of parametric and non-parametric models," MPRA Paper 62028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," NBER Working Papers 13901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2011. "Inflation hedging portfolios in different regimes," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 139-163 Bank for International Settlements.
  35. Gonzalo, Jesús & Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel, 2008. "Modelling and Measuring Price Discovery in Commodity Markets," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 15951, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  36. repec:wyi:journl:002096 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Trojani, Fabio & Wiehenkamp, Christian & Wrampelmeyer, Jan, 2014. "Ambiguity and Reality," Working Papers on Finance 1418, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  38. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Susan S Sharma, . "Do Oil Prices Predict Economic Growth? New Global Evidence," Financial Econometics Series 2014_09, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  39. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(5), pages 979-1016, 09.
  40. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  41. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2008. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1577-1605, July.
  42. Bijl, Laurens & Kringhaug, Glenn & Molnár, Peter & Sandvik, Eirik, 2016. "Google searches and stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 150-156.
  43. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2008. "Return predictability and intertemporal asset allocation: Evidence from a bias-adjusted VAR model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  44. Philippe Bacchetta & Elmar Mertens & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," Working Papers 06.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  45. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2008. "International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-048, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  46. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  47. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen & Carsten Tanggaard, 2010. "Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification," CREATES Research Papers 2010-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  48. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, . "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," Working Paper 102501, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  49. Kasparis, Ioannis & Andreou, Elena & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2015. "Nonparametric predictive regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 468-494.
  50. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2006. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 12017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Jessica A. Wachter, 2010. "Asset Allocation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 175-206, December.
  52. Kuang-Liang Chang, 2012. "Stock return predictability and stationarity of dividend yield," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 715-729.
  53. Demetrescu, Matei, 2014. "Enhancing the local power of IVX-based tests in predictive regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 269-273.
  54. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2008. "Interpreting long-horizon estimates in predictive regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 928, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  55. Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Ulrich Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2009. "Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing," NBER Working Papers 15292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2016, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  58. Campbell, John, 2008. "Estimating the Equity Premium," Scholarly Articles 3196339, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  59. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00662771 is not listed on IDEAS
  60. Eiji Kurozumi & Kohei Aono, 2011. "Estimation and Inference in Predictive Regressions," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-192, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  61. Larrain, Borja & Yogo, Motohiro, 2008. "Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 200-226, January.
  62. Eric Hillebrand & Tae-Hwy Lee & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2012. "Let's Do It Again: Bagging Equity Premium Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2012-41, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  63. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Rational Inattention: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," FAME Research Paper Series rp156, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  64. Jeeman Jung & Robert J. Shiller, 2002. "One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 9348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Alex Maynard & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2007. "Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence," Working Papers 1122, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  66. d'Addona, Stefano & Kind, Axel H., 2006. "International stock-bond correlations in a simple affine asset pricing model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2747-2765, October.
  67. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2008. "Predicting global stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 933, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  68. Biqing Cai & Jiti Gao, 2013. "Hermite Series Estimation in Nonlinear Cointegrating Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  69. Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2015. "A simple approach for diagnosing instabilities in predictive regressions," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1519, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  70. Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2011. "Tests for m-dependence Based on Sample Splitting Methods," Working Papers 1108, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
  71. Pär Österholm & Erik Hjalmarsson, 2007. "Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables are Near-Integrated," IMF Working Papers 07/141, International Monetary Fund.
  72. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
  73. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2015. "What is the chance that the equity premium varies over time? Evidence from regressions on the dividend-price ratio," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 74-93.
  74. Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2011. "The Forward Discount Puzzle: Identi cation of Economic Assumptions," Working Papers 1112, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
  75. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "International financial adjustment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  76. John Y. Campbell & Luis Viceira, 2005. "The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 11119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. Nagayasu, Jun, 2007. "Putting the dividend-price ratio under the microscope," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 186-195, September.
  78. Simon Price, 2004. "UK investment and the return to equity: Q redux," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  79. Christian Friedrich & Melanie Klein, 2009. "On the Look-Out for the Bear: Predicting Stock Market Downturns in G7 Countries," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  80. Ferson, Wayne E. & Sarkissian, Sergei & Simin, Timothy, 2008. "Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 331-353, June.
  81. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2005. "Expected returns and expected dividend growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 583-626, June.
  82. Lee, JiHyung, 2015. "Predictive quantile regression with persistent covariates: IVX-QR approach," MPRA Paper 65150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  83. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2005. "Estimation of average local-to-unity roots in heterogenous panels," International Finance Discussion Papers 852, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  84. J. Annaert & W. Van Hyfte, 2006. "Long-Horizon Mean Reversion for the Brussels Stock Exchange: Evidence for the 19th Century," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/376, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  85. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2007. "The Stambaugh bias in panel predictive regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 914, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  86. Campbell, John & Thompson, Samuel P., 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Scholarly Articles 2622619, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  87. Rangvid, Jesper, 2006. "Output and expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 595-624, September.
  88. Adrian Austin & Swarna Dutt, 2015. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A New Look at the Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 147-159, March.
  89. Thomadakis, Apostolos, 2016. "Do Combination Forecasts Outperform the Historical Average? Economic and Statistical Evidence," MPRA Paper 71589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  90. Li, Jun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2012. "Investor attention, psychological anchors, and stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 401-419.
  91. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steve, 2006. "Stock and Bond Returns with Moody Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 5951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  92. Barbara Rossi, 2007. "Expectations hypotheses tests at Long Horizons," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(3), pages 554-579, November.
  93. Sydney Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2006. "The Empirical Risk-Return Relation: a factor analysis approach," 2006 Meeting Papers 236, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  94. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Michael W. Brandt & Ralph S.J. Koijen, 2006. "Optimal Decentralized Investment Management," NBER Working Papers 12144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  95. Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "Jackknifing stock return predictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 793-803, December.
  96. François Gourio, 2009. "Disasters Risk and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 15399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  97. Zongwu Cai & Bing-Yi Jing & Xin-Bing Kong & Zhi Liu, 2013. "Nonparametric Regression With Nearly Integrated Regressors Under Long Run Dependence," WISE Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  98. Eva Carceles Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2006. "Asset pricing with adaptive learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 25, Society for Computational Economics.
  99. Carmona, Julio & León, Angel & Vaello-Sebastià, Antoni, 2012. "Does stock return predictability affect ESO fair value?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 188-202.
  100. Evans, Martin, 2014. "External Balances, Trade Flows and Financial Conditions," MPRA Paper 55644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  101. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2009. "Multi-period portfolio choice and the intertemporal hedging demands for stocks and bonds: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 427-453, April.
  102. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2011. "A Class of Robust Tests in Augmented Predictive Regressions," Working Papers w201126, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  103. Kohei Aono & Tokuo Iwaisako, 2010. "On the Predictability of Japanese Stock Returns Using Dividend Yield," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 141-149, June.
  104. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2010. "The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605, September.
  105. Michael Scholz & Jens Perch Nielsen & Stefan Sperlich, 2012. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns guided by prior knowledge," Graz Economics Papers 2012-02, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
  106. Frederico Belo & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2012. "Endogenous Dividend Dynamics and the Term Structure of Dividend Strips," NBER Working Papers 18450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  107. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," 2006 Meeting Papers 29, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  108. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Stock return predictability and determinants of predictability and profits," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 153-173.
  109. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2005. "Predictive regressions with panel data," Working Papers in Economics 160, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  110. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  111. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," WISE Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  112. Fan, Qinbin & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2012. "U.S. industry-level returns and oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 112-128.
  113. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  114. Park, Heungju & Sohn, Bumjean, 2016. "Long-term perspective on the stock market matters in asset pricing," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 162-170.
  115. Michael Johannes & Arthur Korteweg & Nicholas Polson, 2014. "Sequential Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 611-644, 04.
  116. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2008. "Miller and Modigliani, Predictive Return Regressions and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 181-207, 04.
  117. Peter Reinhard HANSEN & Allan TIMMERMANN, 2012. "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/10, European University Institute.
  118. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "US International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3440-55, December.
  119. Angelica Gonzalez, 2007. "Angelica Gonzalez," ESE Discussion Papers 168, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  120. Yakov Amihud & Clifford Hurvich & Yi Wang, 2004. "Hypothesis Testing in Predictive Regressions," Finance 0412022, EconWPA.
  121. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  122. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  123. Charlotte S. Hansen & Bjorn E. Tuypens, 2004. "Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets," Finance 0410018, EconWPA.
  124. Cai, Zongwu & Juhl, Ted & Yang, Bingduo, 2015. "Functional index coefficient models with variable selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 272-284.
  125. Elliott, Graham, 2011. "A control function approach for testing the usefulness of trending variables in forecast models and linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 79-91, September.
  126. Andrew Ang & Jun Liu, 2003. "How to Discount Cashflows with Time-Varying Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 10042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  127. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Fully modified estimation with nearly integrated regressors," International Finance Discussion Papers 854, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  128. Martin T. Bohl & Christian A. Salm, 2009. "The Other January Effect: International Evidence," CQE Working Papers 0809, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  129. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2006. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 12346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  130. Lieven Baele & Pilar Soriano, 2010. "The determinants of increasing equity market comovement: economic or financial integration?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 573-589, September.
  131. L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  132. Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2004. "Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2047, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  133. Nuno Silva, 2015. "Time-Varying Stock Return Predictability: The Eurozone Case," Notas Económicas, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra, issue 41, pages 28-38, June.
  134. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2004. "A Note On 'Predicting Returns With Financial Ratios'," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2465, Yale School of Management.
  135. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2632-2640.
  136. Fernandez, Pablo & Aguirreamalloa, Javier & Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The equity premium puzzle: High required equity premium, undervaluation and self fulfilling prophecy," IESE Research Papers D/821, IESE Business School.
  137. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  138. Krapl, Alain & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 2015. "Foreign exchange risk and the term-structure of industry costs of equity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 71-88.
  139. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2011. "Treasury Bond risk and return, the implications for the hedging of consumption and lessons for asset pricing," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(6), pages 582-604.
  140. Efstathios Avdis & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the equity premium," NBER Working Papers 19684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  141. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated: size distortions and partial remedies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 51-76, August.
  142. Kadilli, Anjeza, 2015. "Predictability of stock returns of financial companies and the role of investor sentiment: A multi-country analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 26-45.
  143. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "U.S. international equity investment and past prospective returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 1016, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  144. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Lee, Ji Hyung, 2013. "Predictive regression under various degrees of persistence and robust long-horizon regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 250-264.
  145. Peter C.B. Phillips & Ye Chen, . "Restricted Likelihood Ratio Tests in Predictive Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1968, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  146. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
  147. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Should we expect significant out-of-sample results when predicting stock returns?," International Finance Discussion Papers 855, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  148. Cheolbeom Park, 2006. "The Persistence and Predictive Power of the Dividend-Price Ratio," Departmental Working Papers wp0603, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  149. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2014. "Quantiles of the realized stock–bond correlation and links to the macroeconomy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 321-331.
  150. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2015. "Is carbon emissions trading profitable?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 84-92.
  151. Choi, Yongok & Jacewitz, Stefan & Park, Joon Y., 2016. "A reexamination of stock return predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 168-189.
  152. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
  153. Barnhart, Scott W. & Giannetti, Antoine, 2009. "Negative earnings, positive earnings and stock return predictability: An empirical examination of market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 70-86, January.
  154. Valeriy Zakamulin, 2012. "Low-Frequency Waves and the Medium to Long-Term US Stock Market Outlook," Papers 1203.2250, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
  155. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2011. "Learning generates Long Memory," ESSEC Working Papers WP1113, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
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  159. McMillan, David G., 2013. "Consumption and stock prices: Evidence from a small international panel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 76-88.
  160. Biswas, Anindya, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140.
  161. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Level-shifts and non-linearity in US financial ratios: Implications for returns predictability and the present value model," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 189-207, May.
  162. Didier, Tatiana & Lowenkron, Alexandre, 2012. "The current account as a dynamic portfolio choice problem," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 518-541.
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  167. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
  168. Becheri, I.G., 2012. "Limiting experiments for panel-data and jump-diffusion models," Other publications TiSEM 7e53f6cf-fab1-4f86-9e5d-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  169. Schmeling, Maik, 2008. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-407, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  170. Chen, Sichong, 2012. "The predictability of aggregate Japanese stock returns: Implications of dividend yield," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 284-304.
  171. Wright, Jonathan H. & Zhou, Hao, 2009. "Bond risk premia and realized jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2333-2345, December.
  172. Breitung, Jörg & Demetrescu, Matei, 2015. "Instrumental variable and variable addition based inference in predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 358-375.
  173. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "International stock return predictability: statistical evidence and economic significance," CORE Discussion Papers 2006088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  175. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
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  178. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Non-linear long horizon returns predictability: evidence from six south-east Asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 95-111, June.
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  196. Paye, Bradley S., 2012. "‘Déjà vol’: Predictive regressions for aggregate stock market volatility using macroeconomic variables," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 527-546.
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  198. Park, Cheolbeom, 2010. "When does the dividend-price ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 81-101, January.
  199. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Lee, Ji Hyung, 2016. "Robust econometric inference with mixed integrated and mildly explosive regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 433-450.
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  206. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Zaman, Mir A., 2010. "Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1225-1236, June.
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