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Efficient tests of stock return predictability

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Cited by:

  1. Fan, Qinbin & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2012. "U.S. industry-level returns and oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 112-128.
  2. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
  3. Werker, Bas J.M. & Zhou, Bo, 2022. "Semiparametric testing with highly persistent predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 347-370.
  4. Fernandez, Pablo & Aguirreamalloa, Javier & Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The equity premium puzzle: High required equity premium, undervaluation and self fulfilling prophecy," IESE Research Papers D/821, IESE Business School.
  5. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2012. "Smooth transition patterns in the realized stock–bond correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 454-464.
  6. Kasparis, Ioannis & Andreou, Elena & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2015. "Nonparametric predictive regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 468-494.
  7. Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2024. "Homeownership and Portfolio Choice over the Generations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 207-237, January.
  8. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated: size distortions and partial remedies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 51-76, August.
  10. Yan, Cheng & Wang, Xichen, 2018. "The non-persistent relationship between foreign equity flows and emerging stock market returns across quantiles," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 38-54.
  11. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
  12. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2012. "Prévoir sans persistance," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(3), pages 581-590.
  13. Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 629-651, July.
  14. Aramonte, Sirio & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Shugarman, Justin K., 2019. "Institutions and return predictability in oil-exporting countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 14-26.
  15. Cui, Liyuan & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Yingxing, 2021. "Solving Euler equations via two-stage nonparametric penalized splines," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 1024-1056.
  16. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Break Detection in Quantile Predictive Regression Models with Persistent Covariates," Papers 2302.05193, arXiv.org.
  17. Fukang Zhu & Zongwu Cai & Liang Peng, 2014. "Predictive regressions for macroeconomic data," Papers 1404.7642, arXiv.org.
  18. Valeriy Zakamulin, 2012. "Low-Frequency Waves and the Medium to Long-Term US Stock Market Outlook," Papers 1203.2250, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
  19. Khatereh SADEGHZADEH, 2018. "The effects of microeconomic factors on the stock market: A panel for the stock exchange in Istanbul ARDL analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(616), A), pages 113-134, Autumn.
  20. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010. "International stock return predictability under model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1256-1282, November.
  21. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
  22. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
  23. L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  24. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Non-linear long horizon returns predictability: evidence from six south-east Asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 13(2), pages 95-111, June.
  25. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  26. Cai, Zongwu & Li, Qi & Park, Joon Y., 2009. "Functional-coefficient models for nonstationary time series data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 101-113, February.
  27. Floro, Danvee, 2019. "Testing the predictive ability of house price bubbles for macroeconomic performance: A meta-analytic approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 164-181.
  28. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2005. "Predictive regressions with panel data," Working Papers in Economics 160, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  29. Shuping Shi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2023. "Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 159-186, February.
  30. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2010. "Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 95-107, September.
  31. Chen, Haiqiang, 2015. "Robust Estimation And Inference For Threshold Models With Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 778-810, August.
  32. Skintzi, Vasiliki D., 2019. "Determinants of stock-bond market comovement in the Eurozone under model uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 20-28.
  33. Lee, Ji Hyung, 2016. "Predictive quantile regression with persistent covariates: IVX-QR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 105-118.
  34. James A. Duffy & Jerome R. Simons, 2020. "Cointegration without Unit Roots," Papers 2002.08092, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
  35. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Long Run Returns Predictability and Volatility with Moving Averages," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, September.
  36. Yang, Bingduo & Long, Wei & Yang, Zihui, 2022. "Testing predictability of stock returns under possible bubbles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 246-260.
  37. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
  38. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2005. "Expected returns and expected dividend growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 583-626, June.
  39. Ferson, Wayne E. & Sarkissian, Sergei & Simin, Timothy, 2008. "Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 331-353, June.
  40. Christopher Polk & Samuel Thompson & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "New Forecasts of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 10406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2008. "Interpreting long-horizon estimates in predictive regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 104-117, June.
  42. Laimutė Urbšienė & Andrius Bugajevas & Marekas Pipiras, 2016. "The Impact Of Investment Horizon On The Return And Risk Of Investments In Securities In Lithuania," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 7(2).
  43. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2019. "Structural instability and predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  44. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "The yield curve and the stock market: Mind the long run," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  45. Nuno Silva, 2015. "Time-Varying Stock Return Predictability: The Eurozone Case," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 41, pages 28-38, June.
  46. Catherine Georgiou, 2022. "Modifications on Book-Valued Ratios," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 15(3), pages 24-37, December.
  47. Zongwu Cai & Haiqiang Chen & Xiaosai Liao, 2020. "A New Robust Inference for Predictive Quantile Regression," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202002, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2020.
  48. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 399-448.
  49. Avdis, Efstathios & Wachter, Jessica A., 2017. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 589-609.
  50. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
  51. David G McMillan, 2011. "Does the BEYR help predict UK sector returns?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(2), pages 146-156, June.
  52. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
  53. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
  54. Bandi, F.M. & Perron, B. & Tamoni, A. & Tebaldi, C., 2019. "The scale of predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 120-140.
  55. Gungor, Sermin & Luger, Richard, 2020. "Small-sample tests for stock return predictability with possibly non-stationary regressors and GARCH-type effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 750-770.
  56. Lin, Qi, 2018. "Technical analysis and stock return predictability: An aligned approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 103-123.
  57. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Ahmed, Huson Ali, 2014. "Importance of skewness in decision making: Evidence from the Indian stock exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 260-269.
  58. Barbara Rossi, 2007. "Expectations hypotheses tests at Long Horizons," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(3), pages 554-579, November.
  59. Jianying Xie, 2021. "A New Multivariate Predictive Model for Stock Returns," Papers 2110.01873, arXiv.org.
  60. Ren, Yu & Tu, Yundong & Yi, Yanping, 2019. "Balanced predictive regressions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 118-142.
  61. Jacob Boudoukh & Ronen Israel & Matthew P. Richardson, 2020. "Biases in Long-Horizon Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 27410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Margot Quijano, 2013. "Consumption, change in expectations and equity returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(24), pages 1839-1851, December.
  63. Jukka Ilomäki, 2018. "Risk and return of a trend-chasing application in financial markets: an empirical test," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 258-272, August.
  64. Wegener, Christoph & Kruse, Robinson & Basse, Tobias, 2019. "The walking debt crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 382-402.
  65. Georgiev, Iliyan & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2018. "Testing for parameter instability in predictive regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 101-118.
  66. Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "Jackknifing stock return predictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 793-803, December.
  67. Jeeman Jung & Robert J. Shiller, 2002. "One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1386, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  68. Demetrescu, Matei & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2022. "Testing for episodic predictability in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 85-113.
  69. Krivenko, Pavel, 2023. "Asset prices in a labor search model with confidence shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  70. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steven R., 2010. "Stock and bond returns with Moody Investors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 867-894, December.
  71. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2021. "New testing approaches for mean–variance predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 516-538.
  72. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2012. "Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1255-1265.
  73. Biqing Cai & Jiti Gao, 2017. "A simple nonlinear predictive model for stock returns," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 18/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  74. Haase, Felix & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023. "Predictability of bull and bear markets: A new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 587-605.
  75. Golab, Anna & Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Pham, Thach Ngoc & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and industry return predictability – Evidence from the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 433-447.
  76. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan & Poon, Wai Ching & Westerlund, Joakim, 2014. "Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 137-146.
  77. Becheri, I.G., 2012. "Limiting experiments for panel-data and jump-diffusion models," Other publications TiSEM 7e53f6cf-fab1-4f86-9e5d-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  78. Wang, Wenjie & Doko Tchatoka, Firmin, 2018. "On Bootstrap inconsistency and Bonferroni-based size-correction for the subset Anderson–Rubin test under conditional homoskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 188-211.
  79. Natascia Angelini & Giacomo Bormetti & Stefano Marmi & Franco Nardini, 2018. "Value Matters: The Long-run Behavior of Stock Index Returns," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 12, pages 16-28, May.
  80. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
  81. Friedrich, Christian & Klein, Melanie, 2009. "On the look-out for the bear: Predicting stock market downturns in G7 countries," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  82. Xiaoquan Jiang & Bong-Soo Lee, 2013. "Equity issues and aggregate market returns under information asymmetry," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 281-300, January.
  83. Jérémie Bertrand & Laurent Weill, 2022. "In December days are shorter but loans are cheaper," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1335-1356, July.
  84. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2010. "The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605, September.
  85. Chava, Sudheer & Gallmeyer, Michael & Park, Heungju, 2015. "Credit conditions and stock return predictability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 117-132.
  86. Ishani Chaudhuri & Parthajit Kayal, 2022. "Predicting Power of Ticker Search Volume in Indian Stock Market," Working Papers 2022-214, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  87. Yi, Yongsheng & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie & Huang, Dengshi, 2019. "Forecasting stock returns with cycle-decomposed predictors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 250-261.
  88. Xiaosai Liao & Xinjue Li & Qingliang Fan, 2024. "Robust Inference for Multiple Predictive Regressions with an Application on Bond Risk Premia," Papers 2401.01064, arXiv.org.
  89. Adam McCloskey, 2012. "Bonferroni-Based Size-Correction for Nonstandard Testing Problems," Working Papers 2012-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  90. Dunbar, Kwamie & Jiang, Jing, 2020. "What do movements in financial traders’ net long positions reveal about aggregate stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  91. Bandi, Federico M. & Perron, Benoît, 2008. "Long-run risk-return trade-offs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 349-374, April.
  92. Elliott, Graham, 2011. "A control function approach for testing the usefulness of trending variables in forecast models and linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 79-91, September.
  93. Breitung, Jörg & Demetrescu, Matei, 2015. "Instrumental variable and variable addition based inference in predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 358-375.
  94. Kuang-Liang Chang, 2012. "Stock return predictability and stationarity of dividend yield," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 715-729.
  95. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
  96. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(5), pages 979-1016, September.
  97. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2011. "Learning generates Long Memory," ESSEC Working Papers WP1113, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  98. Weilun Zhou & Jiti Gao & David Harris & Hsein Kew, 2019. "Semiparametric Single-index Predictive Regression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 25/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  99. Catherine Georgiou, 2020. "The British Stock Market under the Structure of Market Capitalization Value: New Evidence on its Predictive Content," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 13(3), pages 56-69, December.
  100. Kontosakos, Vasileios E. & Hwang, Soosung & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2024. "Long-term dynamic asset allocation under asymmetric risk preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(2), pages 765-782.
  101. Kohei Aono & Tokuo Iwaisako, 2010. "On the Predictability of Japanese Stock Returns Using Dividend Yield," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 17(2), pages 141-149, June.
  102. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
  103. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Utilizing financial market information in forecasting real growth, inflation and real exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-301, April.
  104. Renato Faccini & Eirini Konstantinidi & George Skiadopoulos & Sylvia Sarantopoulou-Chiourea, 2019. "A New Predictor of U.S. Real Economic Activity: The S&P 500 Option Implied Risk Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(10), pages 4927-4949, October.
  105. Jessica A. Wachter, 2010. "Asset Allocation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 175-206, December.
  106. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2015. "Are Indian stock returns predictable?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 506-531.
  107. Baltas, Nick & Karyampas, Dimitrios, 2018. "Forecasting the equity risk premium: The importance of regime-dependent evaluation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 83-102.
  108. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
  109. Evans, Martin D.D., 2014. "External balances, trade flows and financial conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 271-290.
  110. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2011. "Detrending Persistent Predictors," Post-Print halshs-00587775, HAL.
  111. Bas Werker & Bo Zhou, 2020. "Semiparametric Testing with Highly Persistent Predictors," Papers 2009.08291, arXiv.org.
  112. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2015. "What is the chance that the equity premium varies over time? Evidence from regressions on the dividend-price ratio," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 74-93.
  113. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
  114. Maynard, Alex & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2009. "Covariance-Based Orthogonality Tests For Regressors With Unknown Persistence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 63-116, February.
  115. Okou, Cédric & Jacquier, Éric, 2016. "Horizon effect in the term structure of long-run risk-return trade-offs," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 445-466.
  116. Xiaohui Liu & Yuzi Liu & Yao Rao & Fucai Lu, 2021. "A Unified test for the Intercept of a Predictive Regression Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 571-588, April.
  117. Nagayasu, Jun, 2007. "Putting the dividend-price ratio under the microscope," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 186-195, September.
  118. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
  119. Müller, Ulrich K. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Low-frequency robust cointegration testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 66-81.
  120. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
  121. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh, 2016. "Testing for predictability in panels of any time series dimension," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1162-1177.
  122. Werker, Bas J.M. & Zhou, B., 2022. "Semiparametric testing with highly persistent predictors," Other publications TiSEM 2974ce9c-97c1-44cd-9331-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  123. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Chen, Li & Li, Luyang, 2023. "Forecasting dividend growth: The role of adjusted earnings yield," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  124. Rustam Ibragimov & Jihyun Kim & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "New robust inference for predictive regressions," Papers 2006.01191, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
  125. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "US International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3440-3455, December.
  126. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 29-74.
  127. Roelof Salomons, 2008. "A Theoretical And Practical Perspective On The Equity Risk Premium," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 299-329, April.
  128. David G. McMillan, 2017. "Stock return predictability: the role of inflation and threshold dynamics," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 357-375, May.
  129. Charlotte S. Hansen & Bjorn E. Tuypens, 2004. "Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets," Finance 0410018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  130. Koo, Bonsoo & Anderson, Heather M. & Seo, Myung Hwan & Yao, Wenying, 2020. "High-dimensional predictive regression in the presence of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 456-477.
  131. Nebojsa Dimic & Vitaly Orlov & Janne Äijö, 2019. "Bond–Equity Yield Ratio Market Timing in Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(1), pages 52-79, April.
  132. Anibal Emiliano Da Silva Neto & Jesús Gonzalo & Jean‐Yves Pitarakis, 2021. "Uncovering Regimes in Out of Sample Forecast Errors from Predictive Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 713-741, June.
  133. Semenov, Andrei, 2021. "Measuring the stock's factor beta and identifying risk factors under market inefficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 635-649.
  134. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Inference in Long-Horizon Regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 853, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  135. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
  136. McCloskey, Adam, 2017. "Bonferroni-based size-correction for nonstandard testing problems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 17-35.
  137. Zongwu Cai & Seong Yeon Chang, 2018. "A New Test In A Predictive Regression with Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201811, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2018.
  138. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  139. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
  140. Nonejad, Nima, 2023. "Conditional out-of-sample predictability of aggregate equity returns and aggregate equity return volatility using economic variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-122.
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