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The Stambaugh bias in panel predictive regressions

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  • Hjalmarsson, Erik

Abstract

This paper analyzes predictive regressions in a panel data setting. The standard fixed effects estimator suffers from a small sample bias, which is the analogue of the Stambaugh bias in time-series predictive regressions. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the bias and resulting size distortions can be severe. A new bias-corrected estimator is proposed, which is shown to work well in finite samples and to lead to approximately normally distributed t-statistics. Overall, the results show that the econometric issues associated with predictive regressions when using time-series data to a large extent also carry over to the panel case. The results are illustrated with an application to predictability in international stock indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2008. "The Stambaugh bias in panel predictive regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 47-58, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:47-58
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    4. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2015. "Testing for stock return predictability in a large Chinese panel," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 81-100.
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    6. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 163, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    7. Stephan Smeekes & Joakim Westerlund, 2019. "Robust block bootstrap panel predictability tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(9), pages 1089-1107, October.
    8. Wang, Cindy S.H. & Chen, Yi-Chi & Lo, Hsin-Yu, 2021. "A fresh look at the risk-return tradeoff," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Victor Troster & José Penalva & Abderrahim Taamouti & Dominik Wied, 2021. "Cointegration, information transmission, and the lead‐lag effect between industry portfolios and the stock market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1291-1309, November.
    10. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Working Papers 0686, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    11. Karabiyik, Hande & Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh, 2016. "On the estimation and testing of predictive panel regressions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 115-125.
    12. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2018. "Decomposing the predictive power of local and global financial valuation ratios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 137-149.
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    15. Malte Rengel, 2020. "Sustainability of European fiscal balances: Just a statistical artifact?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1681-1712, April.

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