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Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?

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  • Jiang, Xiaoquan
  • Zaman, Mir A.

Abstract

We decompose realized market returns into expected return, unexpected cash-flow news and unexpected discount rate news to test the relation between aggregate market returns and aggregate insider trading. We find that (1) the predictive ability of aggregate insider trading is much stronger than what was reported in earlier studies, (2) aggregate insider trading is strongly related to unexpected cash-flow news, (3) market expectations do not cause insider trading contrary to what others have documented, and (4) aggregate insider trading in firms with high information uncertainty is more likely to be associated with contrarian investment strategy. These results strongly suggest that the predictive ability of aggregate insider trading is because of insider's ability to predict future cash-flow news rather than from adopting a contrarian investment strategy. These results hold even after we control for non-informative trades and information uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Xiaoquan & Zaman, Mir A., 2010. "Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1225-1236, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1225-1236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abu Chowdhury & Sabur Mollah & Mir A. Zaman, 2018. "What Motivates CEO and CFO Trading – Contrarian Beliefs or Superior Information?," Working Papers 2018-10, Swansea University, School of Management.
    2. Lont, David & Griffin, Paul & McClune, Kate, 2011. "Insightful Insiders? Insider Trading and Stock Return Around Debt Covenant Violation Disclosures," Working Paper Series 4088, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jana P. & Korczak, Adriana & Korczak, Piotr, 2013. "Why does shareholder protection matter for abnormal returns after reported insider purchases and sales?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1915-1935.
    4. Ozlem Akin & Nicholas S. Coleman & Christian Fons-Rosen & José-Luis Peydró, 2016. "Political Connections: Evidence From Insider Trading Around TARP," Working Papers 935, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Yin-Hua Yeh & Pei-Gi Shu & Ya-Wei Yang, 2016. "How Insiders’ Personal Incentives and Timeliness of Information Revelation are Related to Their Sales Timing," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-26, June.
    6. Lu, Chia-Wu & Chen, Tsung-Kang & Liao, Hsien-Hsing, 2010. "Information uncertainty, information asymmetry and corporate bond yield spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2265-2279, September.
    7. Stotz, Olaf & Georgi, Dominik, 2012. "A logit model of retail investors' individual trading decisions and their relations to insider trades," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 159-167.
    8. Lambe, Brendan J., 2016. "An unreliable canary: Insider trading, the cash flow hypothesis and the financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-158.

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