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Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?

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  • Jiang, Xiaoquan
  • Zaman, Mir A.

Abstract

We decompose realized market returns into expected return, unexpected cash-flow news and unexpected discount rate news to test the relation between aggregate market returns and aggregate insider trading. We find that (1) the predictive ability of aggregate insider trading is much stronger than what was reported in earlier studies, (2) aggregate insider trading is strongly related to unexpected cash-flow news, (3) market expectations do not cause insider trading contrary to what others have documented, and (4) aggregate insider trading in firms with high information uncertainty is more likely to be associated with contrarian investment strategy. These results strongly suggest that the predictive ability of aggregate insider trading is because of insider's ability to predict future cash-flow news rather than from adopting a contrarian investment strategy. These results hold even after we control for non-informative trades and information uncertainty.

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  • Jiang, Xiaoquan & Zaman, Mir A., 2010. "Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1225-1236, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1225-1236
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    7. Ozlem Akin & Nicholas S. Coleman & Christian Fons‐Rosen & José‐Luis Peydró, 2021. "Political connections and informed trading: Evidence from TARP," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 619-644, September.
    8. Hafiz Hoque & Meziane Lasfer, 2015. "Directors' Dealing and Post†IPO Performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(1), pages 178-204, January.
    9. Mobbs, Shawn & Tan, Yongxian & Zhang, Shage, 2021. "Female directors: Why are some less informed than others?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Katselas, Dean, 2018. "Insider trading in Australia: Contrarianism and future performance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 112-128.
    11. Stotz, Olaf & Georgi, Dominik, 2012. "A logit model of retail investors' individual trading decisions and their relations to insider trades," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 159-167.
    12. Dennis D. Malliouris & Alphons T. Vermorken & Maximilian A.M. Vermorken, 2022. "Aggregate insider trading and future market returns in the United States, Europe, and Asia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 802-821, January.
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    14. Lu, Chia-Wu & Chen, Tsung-Kang & Liao, Hsien-Hsing, 2010. "Information uncertainty, information asymmetry and corporate bond yield spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2265-2279, September.
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    16. Lont, David & Griffin, Paul & McClune, Kate, 2011. "Insightful Insiders? Insider Trading and Stock Return Around Debt Covenant Violation Disclosures," Working Paper Series 19194, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    17. Abu Chowdhury & Sabur Mollah & Mir A. Zaman, 2018. "What Motivates CEO and CFO Trading – Contrarian Beliefs or Superior Information?," Working Papers 2018-10, Swansea University, School of Management.
    18. Paul A. Griffin & David H. Lont & Kate McClune, 2014. "Insightful Insiders? Insider Trading and Stock Return around Debt Covenant Violation Disclosures," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 50(2), pages 117-145, June.
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    20. Serkan Karadas & Minh Tam Tammy Schlosky & Joshua Hall, 2021. "Did Politicians Use Non-Public Macroeconomic Information in Their Stock Trades? Evidence from the STOCK Act of 2012," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, June.
    21. Ozlem Akin & Nicholas S. Coleman & Christian Fons-Rosen & José-Luis Peydró, 2016. "Political Connections: Evidence From Insider Trading Around TARP," Working Papers 935, Barcelona School of Economics.
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    24. Yin-Hua Yeh & Pei-Gi Shu & Ya-Wei Yang, 2016. "How Insiders’ Personal Incentives and Timeliness of Information Revelation are Related to Their Sales Timing," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-26, June.

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