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The Relation between Aggregate Insider Transactions and Stock Market Returns

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  • Chowdhury, Mustafa
  • Howe, John S.
  • Lin, Ji-Chai

Abstract

A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to examine the relation between aggregate insider transactions and stock market returns. Consistent with the extant literature, there is some predictive content associated with aggregate insider transactions, but its magnitude is slight. In contrast, market returns have substantial influence on the aggregate purchases and sales of corporate insiders. The findings suggest that: 1) the degree of mispricing observed by insiders is small; 2) very little of the mispricing is associated with unanticipated macroeconomic factors; and 3) investors cannot use aggregate insider transactions to profitably predict future market returns over the following eight weeks.

Suggested Citation

  • Chowdhury, Mustafa & Howe, John S. & Lin, Ji-Chai, 1993. "The Relation between Aggregate Insider Transactions and Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 431-437, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:28:y:1993:i:03:p:431-437_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kyriacou, Kyriacos & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2023. "Aggregate insider trading and stock market volatility in the UK," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Lambe, Brendan J., 2016. "An unreliable canary: Insider trading, the cash flow hypothesis and the financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-158.
    3. Tavakoli, Manouchehr & McMillan, David & McKnight, Phillip J., 2012. "Insider trading and stock prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 254-266.
    4. Jonathan L. Rogers, 2008. "Disclosure Quality and Management Trading Incentives," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1265-1296, December.
    5. Julan Du & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Does Insider Trading Raise Market Volatility?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 916-942, October.
    6. Abu Chowdhury & Sabur Mollah & Mir A. Zaman, 2018. "What Motivates CEO and CFO Trading – Contrarian Beliefs or Superior Information?," Working Papers 2018-10, Swansea University, School of Management.
    7. repec:dgr:rugsom:01e49 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Iqbal, Zahid & Shetty, Shekar, 2002. "An investigation of causality between insider transactions and stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 41-57.
    9. Lee, Yi-Tsung & Lin, Ji-Chai & Liu, Yu-Jane, 1999. "Trading patterns of big versus small players in an emerging market: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-725, May.
    10. Dennis D. Malliouris & Alphons T. Vermorken & Maximilian A.M. Vermorken, 2022. "Aggregate insider trading and future market returns in the United States, Europe, and Asia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 802-821, January.
    11. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Zaman, Mir A., 2010. "Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1225-1236, June.
    12. Biggerstaff, Lee & Cicero, David & Wintoki, M. Babajide, 2020. "Insider trading patterns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Joseph, Kissan & Wintoki, M. Babajide, 2013. "Advertising investments, information asymmetry, and insider gains," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-15.
    14. George P. Gao & Qingzhong Ma & David T. Ng & Ying Wu, 2022. "The Sound of Silence: What Do We Know When Insiders Do Not Trade?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 4835-4857, July.
    15. M. Fevzi Esen & Emrah Bilgic & Ulkem Basdas, 2019. "How to detect illegal corporate insider trading? A data mining approach for detecting suspicious insider transactions," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 60-70, April.
    16. Scholtens, Bert & Snijder, Elke, 2001. "Are internet firms different? : evidence from insider trading," Research Report 01E49, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

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