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The scale of predictability

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  • Bandi, F.M.
  • Perron, B.
  • Tamoni, A.
  • Tebaldi, C.

Abstract

We introduce a new stylized fact: the hump-shaped behavior of slopesand coefficients of determination as a function of the aggregation horizon when running (forward/backward) predictive regressions of future excess market returns onto past economic uncertainty (as proxied by market variance, consumption variance, or economic policy uncertainty). To justify this finding formally, we propose a novel modeling framework in which predictability is specified as a property of components of both excess market returns and economic uncertainty. We dub this property scale-specific predictability. We show that classical predictive systems imply restricted forms of scale-specific predictability. We conclude that for certain predictors, like economic uncertainty, the restrictions imposed by classical predictive systems may be excessively strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Bandi, F.M. & Perron, B. & Tamoni, A. & Tebaldi, C., 2019. "The scale of predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 120-140.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:208:y:2019:i:1:p:120-140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.09.008
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    7. Lioui, Abraham & Poncet, Patrice, 2019. "Long horizon predictability: An asset allocation perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 961-975.
    8. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium," Research Discussion Papers 6/2020, Bank of Finland.
    9. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney & Ma, Sai, 2015. "Capital Share Risk and Shareholder Heterogeneity in U.S. Stock Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 10335, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    11. Asgharian, Hossein & Christiansen, Charlotte & Hou, Ai Jun & Wang, Weining, 2020. "Long- and Short-Run Components of Factor Betas: Implications for Stock Pricing," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2020-020, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Predictability; Frequency; Aggregation; Risk-return trade-off;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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