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How to Discount Cashflows with Time-Varying Expected Returns

  • Andrew Ang
  • Jun Liu

While many studies document that the market risk premium is predictable and that betas are not constant, the dividend discount model ignores time-varying risk premiums and betas. We develop a model to consistently value cashflows with changing risk-free rates, predictable risk premiums and conditional betas in the context of a conditional CAPM. Practical valuation is accomplished with an analytic term structure of discount rates, with different discount rates applied to expected cashflows at different horizons. Using constant discount rates can produce large mis-valuations, which, in portfolio data, are mostly driven at short horizons by market risk premiums and at long horizons by time-variation in risk-free rates and factor loadings.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10042.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10042.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Publication status: published as Ang, Andrew and Jan Liu. "How To Discount Cashflows With Time-Varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, 2004, v59(6,Dec), 2745-2783.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10042
Note: AP
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