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How to Discount Cashflows with Time-Varying Expected Returns

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  • Andrew Ang
  • Jun Liu

Abstract

While many studies document that the market risk premium is predictable and that betas are not constant, the dividend discount model ignores time-varying risk premiums and betas. We develop a model to consistently value cashflows with changing risk-free rates, predictable risk premiums and conditional betas in the context of a conditional CAPM. Practical valuation is accomplished with an analytic term structure of discount rates, with different discount rates applied to expected cashflows at different horizons. Using constant discount rates can produce large mis-valuations, which, in portfolio data, are mostly driven at short horizons by market risk premiums and at long horizons by time-variation in risk-free rates and factor loadings.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Ang & Jun Liu, 2003. "How to Discount Cashflows with Time-Varying Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 10042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10042
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    2. Sujata Behera, 2020. "Does the EVA valuation model explain the market value of equity better under changing required return than constant required return?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Xavier Gabaix, 2007. "Linearity-Generating Processes: A Modelling Tool Yielding Closed Forms for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 13430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lior Menzly & Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Understanding Predictability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-47, February.
    5. Wachter, Jessica A., 2005. "Solving models with external habit," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 210-226, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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