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Discounting under Uncertainty

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  • Fama, Eugene F

Abstract

Suppose asset pricing is governed by the CAPM or the ICAPM, and the expected one-period simple returns on the net cash flows of investment projects are constant through time. Then the net cash flows are priced by discounting their expected values with their expected one-period simple returns. But when net cash flows are priced by discounting their expected values with constant CAPM or ICAPM expected one-period simple returns, distributions of net cash flows more than one period ahead are likely to be skewed right. Expected payoffs are then larger than median pay-offs, and expected pay-offs are progressively more unusual outcomes for longer investment horizons. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Fama, Eugene F, 1996. "Discounting under Uncertainty," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 415-428, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:69:y:1996:i:4:p:415-28
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuri Biondi, 2009. "Capital budgeting under relational contracting: optimal ranking and duration criteria for schemes of concession, project-financing and public-private partnership," Post-Print hal-00404305, HAL.
    2. Alan Gregory, 2011. "The Expected Cost of Equity and the Expected Risk Premium in the UK," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, April.
    3. Eduardo Walker, 2016. "Cost of Capital in Emerging Markets: Bridging Gaps between Theory and Practice," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 53(1), pages 111-147, December.
    4. Jackson, Jerry, 2010. "Promoting energy efficiency investments with risk management decision tools," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3865-3873, August.
    5. Burkhard Pedell, 2007. "Kapitalmarktbasierte Ermittlung des Kapitalkostensatzes für Zwecke der Entgeltregulierung," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 35-60, April.
    6. Claudio Loderer & John B. Long & Lukas Roth, 2010. "Implementing Fischer Black's Simple Discounting Rule," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(2), pages 60-68.
    7. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    8. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    9. Laitenberger, Jörg & Löffler, Andreas, 2002. "Capital Budgeting in Arbitrage-Free Markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-258, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    10. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
    11. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2009. "Correct or incorrect application of CAPM? Correct or incorrect decisions with CAPM?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 549-560, January.
    12. Thierry Chauveau & Sylvain Friederich & Jérôme Héricourt & Emmanuel Jurczenko & Catherine Lubochinsky & Bertrand Maillet & Christophe Moussu & Bogdan Négréa & Hélène Raymond-Feingold, 2004. "La volatilité des marchés augmente-t-elle ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 17-44.
    13. Loderer, Claudio & Roth, Lukas, 2005. "The pricing discount for limited liquidity: evidence from SWX Swiss Exchange and the Nasdaq," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 239-268, March.
    14. Schosser, Josef, 2008. "Bewertung ohne "Kapitalkosten": Ein arbitragetheoretischer Ansatz zu Unternehmenswert, Kapitalstruktur und persönlicher Besteuerung," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe 13, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    15. Jan Kubíček & Leoš Vítek, 2010. "Hodnocení veřejných projektů z hlediska společenské míry diskontace
      [Evaluation of Public Projects from the Viewpoint of Social Rate of Discount]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(3), pages 291-304.
    16. Lambert Jerman, 2013. "La Juste Valeur : Une Comptabilite Actuarielle Pour Les Marches ... Ou Les Comptables ?," Post-Print hal-00991877, HAL.
    17. repec:oup:rasset:v:1:y:2011:i:1:p:1-34. is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13729 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Andrew Ang & Jun Liu, 2004. "How to Discount Cashflows with Time-Varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2745-2783, December.
    20. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.
    21. Echterling, F. & Eierle, B. & Ketterer, S., 2015. "A review of the literature on methods of computing the implied cost of capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 235-252.
    22. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Mohsni, Sana, 2010. "Capital returns, costs and EVA for Canadian firms," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 256-273, December.
    23. Bing-Huei Lin & Jerry Wang, 2003. "Systematic skewness in asset pricing: an empirical examination of the Taiwan stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1877-1887.

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