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Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models

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Cited by:

  1. Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
  2. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on South African GDP Growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 319-336, June.
  3. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2002. "Is there an asymmetric effect of monetary policy over time? A Bayesian analysis using Austrian data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 277-297.
  4. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
  5. Paap, Richard & Segers, Rene & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Do Leading Indicators Lead Peaks More Than Troughs?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 528-543.
  6. Antonio Pacifico, 2019. "Panel Bayesian VAR Modeling for Policy and Forecasting when dealing with confounding and latent effects," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 1-1.
  7. Deschamps, Philippe J., 2006. "A flexible prior distribution for Markov switching autoregressions with Student-t errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 153-190, July.
  8. Wilkinson, Darren J & KH Yeung, Stephen, 2004. "A sparse matrix approach to Bayesian computation in large linear models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 493-516, January.
  9. repec:bny:wpaper:0069 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Raggi, Davide & Bordignon, Silvano, 2012. "Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: A Markov switching approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3730-3742.
  11. Philippe J. Deschamps, 2008. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 435-462.
  12. Du, Kai & Huddart, Steven & Xue, Lingzhou & Zhang, Yifan, 2020. "Using a hidden Markov model to measure earnings quality," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2).
  13. Sylvia Kaufmann & Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter, 2006. "How do changes in monetary policy affect bank lending? An analysis of Austrian bank data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 275-305.
  14. Sylvia Kaufmann & Sylvia Frühwirth‐Schnatter, 2002. "Bayesian analysis of switching ARCH models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 425-458, July.
  15. Jia Liu & John M. Maheu & Yong Song, 2024. "Identification and forecasting of bull and bear markets using multivariate returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 723-745, August.
  16. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Working Papers 14.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  17. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Osuntuyi, Anthony, 2016. "Efficient Gibbs sampling for Markov switching GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 37-57.
  18. Bauwens, Luc & Dufays, Arnaud & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2014. "Marginal likelihood for Markov-switching and change-point GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 508-522.
  19. Rosychuk, Rhonda J. & Shofiqul Islam, 2009. "Parameter estimation in a model for misclassified Markov data -- a Bayesian approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(11), pages 3805-3816, September.
  20. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Woźniak, Tomasz, 2020. "Bayesian inference for structural vector autoregressions identified by Markov-switching heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  21. Beutler, Toni & Gubler, Matthias & Hauri, Simona & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2021. "Bank lending in Switzerland: Driven by business models and exposed to uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  22. Rangan Gupta & Zhihui Lv & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Changing Dynamics of the U.S. REITs Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
  23. Netésunajev, Aleksei & Glass, Katharina, 2016. "Uncertainty and employment dynamics in the euro area and the US," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-002, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  24. Thomas Windberger & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Janette Walde, 2012. "Dirty floating and monetary independence in Central and Eastern Europe - The role of structural breaks," Working Papers 2012-21, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
  25. Prüser, Jan, 2017. "Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching," Ruhr Economic Papers 710, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  26. Fisher, Mark & Jensen, Mark J., 2019. "Bayesian inference and prediction of a multiple-change-point panel model with nonparametric priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 187-202.
  27. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 751-772, August.
  28. Maheu, John M. & Yang, Qiao, 2016. "An infinite hidden Markov model for short-term interest rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 202-220.
  29. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "Understanding liquidity and credit risks in the financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 903-914.
  30. Jochmann Markus & Koop Gary, 2015. "Regime-switching cointegration," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 35-48, February.
  31. Chang, Yoosoon & Maih, Junior & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  32. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  33. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2015. "Regime switching model of US crude oil and stock market prices: 1859 to 2013," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 317-327.
  34. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2010. "The Role Of Credit Aggregates And Asset Prices In The Transmission Mechanism: A Comparison Between The Euro Area And The Usa," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(4), pages 345-377, July.
  35. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2021. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  36. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_015 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Xianguo HUANG & Roberto LEON-GONZALEZ & Somrasri YUPHO, 2013. "Financial Integration from a Time-Varying Cointegration Perspective," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(12), pages 1473-1487.
  38. Fiorentini, G. & Planas, C. & Rossi, A., 2012. "The marginal likelihood of dynamic mixture models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(9), pages 2650-2662.
  39. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2012. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 358-367, January.
  40. Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin Vespignani & Giorgio Vocalelli, 2023. "Global Money Supply and Energy and Non-Energy Commodity Prices: A MS-TV-VAR Approach," CAMA Working Papers 2023-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  41. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Chan, Jennifer S.K. & So, Mike K.P. & Lee, Kevin K.M., 2011. "Classification in segmented regression problems," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 2276-2287, July.
  42. Mário Jorge Mendonça & Cláudio H. dos Santos, 2008. "Revisitando a Função de Reação Fiscal no Brasil Pós-Real: Uma Abordagem de Mudanças de Regime," Discussion Papers 1337, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  43. F. Bartolucci & A. Farcomeni & F. Pennoni, 2014. "Latent Markov models: a review of a general framework for the analysis of longitudinal data with covariates," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(3), pages 433-465, September.
  44. Patacchini, Eleonora & Rainone, Edoardo & Zenou, Yves, 2017. "Heterogeneous peer effects in education," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 190-227.
  45. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:90:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  46. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2007. "The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2006-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  47. Jiang, Yu & Fang, Xianming, 2015. "Bull, bear or any other states in US stock market?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-58.
  48. Nima Nonejad, 2013. "Time-Consistency Problem and the Behavior of US Inflation from 1970 to 2008," CREATES Research Papers 2013-25, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  49. Hideo Kozumi, 2000. "Bayesian Analysis of Discrete Survival Data with a Hidden Markov Chain," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 1002-1006, December.
  50. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Escaping the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1030-1058, April.
  51. Keisuke Kondo, 2022. "Spatial dependence in regional business cycles: evidence from Mexican states," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-46, December.
  52. Paulo Chávez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 505-544, May.
  53. repec:bny:wpaper:0067 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2015. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions—Does loan growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 82-94.
  55. Deschamps, Philippe J., 2011. "Bayesian estimation of an extended local scale stochastic volatility model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 369-382, June.
  56. Hou, Chenghan, 2017. "Infinite hidden markov switching VARs with application to macroeconomic forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1025-1043.
  57. John Wiedenhoeft & Eric Brugel & Alexander Schliep, 2016. "Fast Bayesian Inference of Copy Number Variants using Hidden Markov Models with Wavelet Compression," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(5), pages 1-28, May.
  58. BAUWENS, Luc & DUFAYS, Arnaud & DE BACKER, Bruno, 2011. "Estimating and forecasting structural breaks in financial time series," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011055, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  59. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Song, Yong, 2021. "Bull and bear markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
  60. Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2010. "Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of asset returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 216-230, April.
  61. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Santi, Caterina, 2021. "Speculative bubbles in present-value models: A Bayesian Markov-switching state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
  62. John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2011. "Hierarchical Markov normal mixture models with applications to financial asset returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1-29, January/F.
  63. Nima Nonejad, 2019. "Modeling Persistence and Parameter Instability in Historical Crude Oil Price Data Using a Gibbs Sampling Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1687-1710, April.
  64. Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M., 2016. "Bayesian semiparametric modeling of realized covariance matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 19-39.
  65. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
  66. Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for Generalized Stochastic Volatility Models," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  67. Turattia, Douglas Eduardo & Mendes, Fernando Henrique P.S. & Caldeira, João Frois, 2020. "Testing for mean reversion in Bitcoin returns with Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
  68. Eo Yunjong, 2016. "Structural changes in inflation dynamics: multiple breaks at different dates for different parameters," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 211-231, June.
  69. Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2015. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 100-115.
  70. Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça & Cláudio Hamilton Matos dos Santos, 2008. "Revisitando a Função de Reação Fiscal no Brasil Pós-Real: Uma Abordagem de Mudanças de Regime," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807171729460, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  71. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
  72. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
  73. Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-point Models with an Unknown Number of Change-points," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/31, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  74. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy & Yong Song, 2012. "Components of Bull and Bear Markets: Bull Corrections and Bear Rallies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 391-403, February.
  75. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2010. "A monetary real-time conditional forecast of euro area inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 388-405.
  76. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2004. "Modeling Credit Aggregates," Working Papers 90, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  77. Luc Bauwens & Jean-François Carpantier & Arnaud Dufays, 2017. "Autoregressive Moving Average Infinite Hidden Markov-Switching Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 162-182, April.
  78. Jong Hee Park, 2010. "Structural Change in U.S. Presidents' Use of Force," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 766-782, July.
  79. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Predictability of stock returns and asset allocation under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 60-78, September.
  80. Michael L. Polemis & Thanasis Stengos, 2019. "Does competition prevent industrial pollution? Evidence from a panel threshold model," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 98-110, January.
  81. Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola, 2008. "Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland," Working Papers 2008-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  82. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, March.
  83. Satoshi Kabe & Yuichiro Kanazawa, 2014. "Estimating the Markov-switching almost ideal demand systems: a Bayesian approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1193-1220, December.
  84. Chuku Chuku & Paul Middleditch, 2020. "Characterizing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules and Interactions when Commodity Prices Matter," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(3), pages 373-404, June.
  85. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing dimensions in a large TVP-VAR," CAMA Working Papers 2018-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  86. Yong Song & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2020. "Markov Switching," Papers 2002.03598, arXiv.org.
  87. Eleonora Patacchini & Edoardo Rainone, 2014. "The Word on Banking - Social Ties, Trust, and the Adoption of Financial Products," EIEF Working Papers Series 1404, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Jul 2014.
  88. Hauzenberger Niko & Huber Florian & Pfarrhofer Michael & Zörner Thomas O., 2021. "Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-17, April.
  89. Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter & Marcelle Chauvet, 2002. "Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 205-232.
  90. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2018. "Has trend inflation shifted?: An empirical analysis with an equally-spaced regime-switching model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 69-83.
  91. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
  92. Kaufmann Sylvia & Scheicher Martin, 2006. "A Switching ARCH Model for the German DAX Index," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-37, December.
  93. Balcombe, Kelvin & Fraser, Iain, 2017. "Do bubbles have an explosive signature in markov switching models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 81-100.
  94. Jiang, Yu, 2020. "Identification of business cycles and the Great Moderation in the post-war U.S. economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
  95. Luo, Jiawen & Klein, Tony & Ji, Qiang & Hou, Chenghan, 2022. "Forecasting realized volatility of agricultural commodity futures with infinite Hidden Markov HAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 51-73.
  96. Managi, Shunsuke & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-9.
  97. Beatrice D. Simo - Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive mode," Working Papers 15-26, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  98. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-46.
  99. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  100. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," NCER Working Paper Series 75, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  101. Philippe J. Deschamps, 2008. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 435-462.
  102. DUFAYS, Arnaud, 2012. "Infinite-state Markov-switching for dynamic volatility and correlation models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  103. Maheu, John M. & Song, Yong, 2014. "A new structural break model, with an application to Canadian inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 144-160.
  104. Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
  105. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke, 2016. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS-VAR Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 895-914, December.
  106. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 935-947, November.
  107. Justyna Wr'oblewska & {L}ukasz Kwiatkowski, 2024. "Identification of structural shocks in Bayesian VEC models with two-state Markov-switching heteroskedasticity," Papers 2406.03053, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
  108. Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M., 2016. "Modeling covariance breakdowns in multivariate GARCH," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 1-23.
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  110. Luo, Jiawen & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Forecasting oil and gold volatilities with sentiment indicators under structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  111. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
  112. Cardoso de Mendonça, Mário Jorge, 2013. "O Crédito Imobiliário no Brasil e sua Relação com a Política Monetária," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
  113. Kappe, Eelco & Stadler Blank, Ashley & DeSarbo, Wayne S., 2018. "A random coefficients mixture hidden Markov model for marketing research," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 415-431.
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  116. Paroli, Roberta & Spezia, Luigi, 2008. "Bayesian inference in non-homogeneous Markov mixtures of periodic autoregressions with state-dependent exogenous variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 2311-2330, January.
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  119. Jia Liu & John M. Maheu, 2018. "Improving Markov switching models using realized variance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 297-318, April.
  120. Eo, Yunjong, 2012. "Bayesian Inference about the Types of Structural Breaks When There are Many Breaks," Working Papers 2012-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  121. AitSahlia, Farid & Yoon, Joon-Hui, 2016. "Information stages in efficient markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 84-94.
  122. Nakajima Jouchi, 2013. "Stochastic volatility model with regime-switching skewness in heavy-tailed errors for exchange rate returns," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 499-520, December.
  123. Yong Song, 2014. "Modelling Regime Switching And Structural Breaks With An Infinite Hidden Markov Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 825-842, August.
  124. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Working Papers 2020-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  125. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke, 2016. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS-VAR Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 895-914, December.
  126. Dr. Toni Beutler & Dr. Matthias Gubler & Simona Hauri & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2020. "Bank lending in Switzerland: Capturing cross-sectional heterogeneity and asymmetry over time," Working Papers 2020-12, Swiss National Bank.
  127. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
  128. Xin Jin & John M. Maheu & Qiao Yang, 2019. "Bayesian parametric and semiparametric factor models for large realized covariance matrices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 641-660, August.
  129. Dmitry Kulikov & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2016. "Identifying Shocks in Structural VAR models via heteroskedasticity: a Bayesian approach," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2015-8, Bank of Estonia, revised 19 Feb 2016.
  130. Chih-chiang Yang, 2007. "Confirmatory and Structural Categorical Latent Variables Models," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 41(6), pages 831-849, December.
  131. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil," Econometrics 0406001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  132. Chenxing Li & John M. Maheu & Qiao Yang, 2024. "An infinite hidden Markov model with stochastic volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2187-2211, September.
  133. Satoshi Tezuka & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2018. "Credit Spread, Financial Market and Real Activities under Financial Instability: Empirical Evidence with MS-SBVAR," Discussion Papers 1812, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  134. Fabrice Murtin, 2007. "The Structural Change and the Endogeneity Bias of the College Premium in the United States 1968-2001"," Working Papers 2007-14, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  135. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2008. "Bank lending in Germany and the UK: are there differences between a bank-based and a market-based country?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 266-279.
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  139. Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2001. "Asymmetries in bank lending behaviour. Austria during the 1990s," Working Paper Series 97, European Central Bank.
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  156. Liu Xiaochun & Luger Richard, 2018. "Markov-switching quantile autoregression: a Gibbs sampling approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 1, April.
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  159. Chang, Yoosoon & Choi, Yongok & Park, Joon Y., 2017. "A new approach to model regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 127-143.
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  161. Congdon, Peter, 2007. "Mixtures of spatial and unstructured effects for spatially discontinuous health outcomes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 3197-3212, March.
  162. Caracciolo, Francesco & Gotor, Elisabetta & Holloway, Garth J. & Watts, Jamie, 2008. "The Origin, Development And Structure Of Demand For Plant Genetic Resources. The Impact Of The In Trust Agreements To The CGIAR Collections Availability," 82nd Annual Conference, March 31 - April 2, 2008, Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester, UK 36773, Agricultural Economics Society.
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  164. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  170. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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  175. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2003. "The business cycle of European countries Bayesian clustering of country - individual IP growth series," Working Papers 83, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  176. Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2008. "Are There Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 326-360, Summer.
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  184. Gaggl, Paul & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2020. "The cyclical component of labor market polarization and jobless recoveries in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 334-347.
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  186. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2010. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear and time varying time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 134-150, November.
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  196. Garth John Holloway, 2020. "Sustainable Land-Use Pathway Ranking and Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-31, September.
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  203. Yongli Zhang, 2010. "Fluctuations of Real Interest Rates and Business Cycles," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 185-208, May.
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  208. Ravishanker, Nalini & Liu, Zhaohui & Ray, Bonnie K., 2008. "NHPP models with Markov switching for software reliability," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 3988-3999, April.
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  210. Pierre-Julien Trombe & Pierre Pinson & Henrik Madsen, 2012. "A General Probabilistic Forecasting Framework for Offshore Wind Power Fluctuations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-37, March.
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  213. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2021. "OLS Estimation of Markov switching VAR models: asymptotics and application to energy use," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(3), pages 431-449, September.
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  217. Sergei S. Shibaev, 2016. "Recession Propagation In Small Regional Economies: Spatial Spillovers And Endogenous Clustering," Working Paper 1369, Economics Department, Queen's University.
  218. Richard Startz, 2020. "The next hundred years of growth and convergence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 99-113, January.
  219. David Ardia, 2009. "Bayesian estimation of a Markov-switching threshold asymmetric GARCH model with Student-t innovations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 105-126, March.
  220. Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2002. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 281-316, June.
  221. Simon C. Smith, 2020. "Equity premium prediction and structural breaks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 412-429, July.
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  226. Byeongheon Lee & Joowon Park & Yongku Kim, 2023. "Hidden Markov Model Based on Logistic Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-12, October.
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  233. Lapar, Ma. Lucila A. & Holloway, Garth J. & Ehui, Simeon K., 2003. "How Big Is Your Neighborhood? Spatial Implications Of Market Participation By Smallholder Livestock Producers," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25860, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  234. Anna Pajor & Justyna Wróblewska & Łukasz Kwiatkowski & Jacek Osiewalski, 2024. "Hybrid SV‐GARCH, t‐GARCH and Markov‐switching covariance structures in VEC models—Which is better from a predictive perspective?," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 92(1), pages 62-86, April.
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  239. Sylvia Fruehwirth-Schnatter & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2003. "Investigating asymmetries in the bank lending channel. An analysis using Austrian banks’ balance sheet data," Working Papers 85, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  240. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
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