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Ambiguity Aversion and Underdiversification

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  • Guidolin, Massimo
  • Liu, Hening

Abstract

We examine asset allocation decisions under smooth ambiguity aversion when an investor has a prior degree of belief in an asset pricing model (e.g., the domestic CAPM). Different from the Bayesian portfolio approach, in our model the investor separately relies on the conditional distribution of returns and on the posterior over uncertain parameters to make asset allocation decisions, rather than on the predictive distribution of returns that integrates priors and likelihood information in a single distribution. This is a key feature implied by smooth ambiguity preferences. We find that in the perspective of US investors, ambiguity aversion can generate strong home bias in their equity holdings, regardless of their belief in the domestic CAPM or of their degree of risk aversion. Our results extend and become stronger under regime-switching investment opportunities. JEL Classification: C61; D81; G11. Keywords: Ambiguity aversion, Bayesian portfolio analysis, CAPM, Smooth ambiguity.
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Suggested Citation

  • Guidolin, Massimo & Liu, Hening, 2016. "Ambiguity Aversion and Underdiversification," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(04), pages 1297-1323, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:51:y:2016:i:04:p:1297-1323_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jeleva, Meglena & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2016. "Ambiguïté, comportements et marchés financiers," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 92(1-2), pages 351-383, Mars-Juin.
    2. Huyen Pham & Xiaoli Wei & Chao Zhou, 2018. "Portfolio diversification and model uncertainty: a robust dynamic mean-variance approach," Working Papers hal-01867133, HAL.
    3. Huyen Pham & Xiaoli Wei & Chao Zhou, 2018. "Portfolio diversification and model uncertainty: a robust dynamic mean-variance approach," Papers 1809.01464, arXiv.org.
    4. repec:spr:fininn:v:4:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-018-0095-z is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gallant, A. Ronald & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad & Liu, Hening, 2015. "Measuring Ambiguity Aversion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-105, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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