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Ambiguity Aversion and Under-diversification

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  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Hening Liu

Abstract

We examine asset allocation decisions under smooth ambiguity aversion when an investor has a prior degree of belief in an asset pricing model (e.g., the domestic CAPM). Different from the Bayesian portfolio approach, in our model the investor separately relies on the conditional distribution of returns and on the posterior over uncertain parameters to make asset allocation decisions, rather than on the predictive distribution of returns that integrates priors and likelihood information in a single distribution. This is a key feature implied by smooth ambiguity preferences. We find that in the perspective of US investors, ambiguity aversion can generate strong home bias in their equity holdings, regardless of their belief in the domestic CAPM or of their degree of risk aversion. Our results extend and become stronger under regime-switching investment opportunities. JEL Classification: C61; D81; G11. Keywords: Ambiguity aversion, Bayesian portfolio analysis, CAPM, Smooth ambiguity.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Guidolin & Hening Liu, 2013. "Ambiguity Aversion and Under-diversification," Working Papers 483, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:483
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    Cited by:

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    2. Huyen Pham & Xiaoli Wei & Chao Zhou, 2018. "Portfolio diversification and model uncertainty: a robust dynamic mean-variance approach," Papers 1809.01464, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    3. Loïc Berger & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2020. "Risk, Ambiguity, And The Value Of Diversification," Working Papers hal-02910906, HAL.
    4. Jeleva, Meglena & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2016. "Ambiguïté, comportements et marchés financiers," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 92(1-2), pages 351-383, Mars-Juin.
    5. Eduard Gaar & David Scherer & Dirk Schiereck, 2022. "The home bias and the local bias: A survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 21-57, February.
    6. Guillemin, François, 2020. "Governance by depositors, bank runs and ambiguity aversion," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Rossella Agliardi, 2018. "Value-at-risk under ambiguity aversion," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. A. Ronald Gallant & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Hening Liu, 2015. "Measuring Ambiguity Aversion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-105, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2023. "Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10646, CESifo.
    10. Lin, Qian & Sun, Xianming & Zhou, Chao, 2020. "Horizon-unbiased investment with ambiguity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    11. Junyong Lee & Kyounghun Lee & Frederick Dongchuhl Oh, 2023. "Religion and Equity Home Bias," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 1015-1038, November.
    12. Loïc Berger & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2021. "Risk, ambiguity, and the value of diversification," Post-Print hal-02910906, HAL.
    13. Qian Lin & Xianming Sun & Chao Zhou, 2019. "Horizon-unbiased Investment with Ambiguity," Papers 1904.09379, arXiv.org.
    14. Huyên Pham & Xiaoli Wei & Chao Zhou, 2022. "Portfolio diversification and model uncertainty: A robust dynamic mean‐variance approach," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 349-404, January.
    15. Zhou, Zhongbao & Gao, Meng & Xiao, Helu & Wang, Rui & Liu, Wenbin, 2021. "Big data and portfolio optimization: A novel approach integrating DEA with multiple data sources," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Rocciolo, Francesco & Gheno, Andrea & Brooks, Chris, 2022. "Explaining abnormal returns in stock markets: An alpha-neutral version of the CAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Loïc Berger & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2021. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Value of Diversification," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1639-1647, March.
    18. Luo, Deqing & Shan, Xun & Yan, Jingzhou & Yan, Qianhui, 2023. "Sustainable investment under ESG volatility and ambiguity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
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    20. Goodell, John W., 2019. "Comparing normative institutionalism with intended rationality in cultural-finance research," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 124-134.
    21. Lee, Junyong & Lee, Kyounghun & Oh, Frederick Dongchuhl, 2023. "International portfolio diversification and the home bias puzzle," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ambiguity aversion; bayesian portfolio analysis; capm; smooth ambiguity.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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