IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Ambiguity Aversion and Under-diversification

  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Hening Liu

We examine asset allocation decisions under smooth ambiguity aversion when an investor has a prior degree of belief in an asset pricing model (e.g., the domestic CAPM). Different from the Bayesian portfolio approach, in our model the investor separately relies on the conditional distribution of returns and on the posterior over uncertain parameters to make asset allocation decisions, rather than on the predictive distribution of returns that integrates priors and likelihood information in a single distribution. This is a key feature implied by smooth ambiguity preferences. We find that in the perspective of US investors, ambiguity aversion can generate strong home bias in their equity holdings, regardless of their belief in the domestic CAPM or of their degree of risk aversion. Our results extend and become stronger under regime-switching investment opportunities. JEL Classification: C61; D81; G11. Keywords: Ambiguity aversion, Bayesian portfolio analysis, CAPM, Smooth ambiguity.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: ftp://ftp.igier.unibocconi.it/wp/2013/483.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 483.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:483
Contact details of provider: Postal:
via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano (Italy)

Phone: 0039-02-58363301
Fax: 0039-02-58363302
Web page: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/

Order Information: Web: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/en/papers/index.htm Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Pascal J. Maenhout, 2004. "Robust Portfolio Rules and Asset Pricing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 951-983.
  2. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew, and kurtosis preferences," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 889-935, April.
  3. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  4. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Comparing Asset Pricing Models: An Investment Perspective," CRSP working papers 497, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  5. Segal, Uzi & Spivak, Avia, 1990. "First order versus second order risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 111-125, June.
  6. Laura Veldkamp & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," 2005 Meeting Papers 78, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Brennan, Michael J. & Henry Cao, H. & Strong, Norman & Xu, Xinzhong, 2005. "The dynamics of international equity market expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 257-288, August.
  8. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
  9. Klibanoff, Peter & Marinacci, Massimo & Mukerji, Sujoy, 2009. "Recursive smooth ambiguity preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 930-976, May.
  10. Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2011. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11032rr, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Jan 2015.
  11. Lubo Pástor, . "Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing Models," CRSP working papers 356, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  12. Warnock, Francis E., 2002. "Home bias and high turnover reconsidered," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 795-805, November.
  13. Halevy, Yoram, 2005. "Ellsberg Revisited: an Experimental Study," Microeconomics.ca working papers halevy-05-07-26-11-51-13, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 25 Feb 2014.
  14. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
  15. Hui Chen & Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2008. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-179, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009.
  16. Garlappi, Lorenzo & Uppal, Raman & Wang, Tan, 2005. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5041, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, March.
  18. Liu, Hening, 2011. "Dynamic portfolio choice under ambiguity and regime switching mean returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 623-640, April.
  19. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002. "A Smooth Model of Decision,Making Under Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  20. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June.
  21. Hening Liu, 2010. "Robust consumption and portfolio choice for time varying investment opportunities," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 435-454, October.
  22. Jun Tu, 2010. "Is Regime Switching in Stock Returns Important in Portfolio Decisions?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1198-1215, July.
  23. Segal, Uzi, 1987. "The Ellsberg Paradox and Risk Aversion: An Anticipated Utility Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 175-202, February.
  24. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August.
  25. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  26. Alan G. Ahearne & William L. Griever & Francis E. Warnock, 2000. "Information costs and home bias: an analysis of U.S. holdings of foreign equities," International Finance Discussion Papers 691, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
  28. Maenhout, Pascal J., 2006. "Robust portfolio rules and detection-error probabilities for a mean-reverting risk premium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 136-163, May.
  29. Claudio Campanale, 2011. "Learning, Ambiguity and Life-Cycle Portfolio Allocation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 339-367, April.
  30. Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2010. "Incorporating Economic Objectives into Bayesian Priors: Portfolio Choice under Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 959-986, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:483. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.