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Citations for "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President"

by Fair, Ray C

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  1. Henry Chappell & William Keech, 1985. "The political viability of rule-based monetary policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 125-140, January.
  2. Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip & Ozler, Sule & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Scholarly Articles 4553024, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. James Adams & Lawrence Kenny, 1989. "The retention of state governors," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 1-13, July.
  4. Ray C. Fair, 1994. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1084, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2007. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence From Prediction Markets and Close Elections," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(2), pages 807-829, 05.
  6. Altindag, Duha T. & Mocan, Naci, 2010. "Joblessness and Perceptions about the Effectiveness of Democracy," IZA Discussion Papers 4930, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Hibbs, Douglas A., 2007. "The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election," MPRA Paper 15910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Conconi, Paola & Sahuguet, Nicolas, 2005. "Re-election Incentives and the Sustainability of International Cooperation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
  10. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
  11. Toros, Emre, 2012. "Forecasting Turkish local elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 813-821.
  12. Spyros Skouras & Nicos Christodoulakis, 2014. "Electoral misgovernance cycles: evidence from wildfires and tax evasion in Greece," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 533-559, June.
  13. Jordahl, Henrik, 2001. "An Economic Analysis of Voting in Sweden," Working Paper Series 2001:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  14. Jones Jr., Randall J., 2008. "The state of presidential election forecasting: The 2004 experience," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 310-321.
  15. Néstor Rubiano Páez, 2011. "Ciclo político de los negocios y tamaño municipal: Colombia 1989-2008," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(25), pages 105-136, July-Dece.
  16. Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary Stegmaier, 2013. "The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 367-385, December.
  17. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
  18. Laurence Ales & Pricila Maziero & Pierre Yared, 2012. "A Theory of Political and Economic Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Robert J. Shiller, 1997. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 13-70 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2004. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results," ERC Working Papers 0401, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2004.
  21. Campbell, James E. & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2008. "US presidential election forecasting: An introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-192.
  22. Alpanda, Sami & Honig, Adam, 2007. "Political Monetary Cycles and a New de facto Ranking of Central Bank Independence," MPRA Paper 5898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Jon Faust & John Irons, 1996. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," International Finance Discussion Papers 572, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Stephen E. Haynes & Joe A. Stone, 2004. "‘Guns and Butter’ in U.S. Presidential Elections," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-12, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Sep 2004.
  25. Möller, Marie, 2011. "Economic voting and economic revolutionizing? The economics of incumbency changes in European democracies and revolutionary events in the Arab World," CIW Discussion Papers 10/2011, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
  26. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2012. "Japanese election forecasting: Classic tests of a hard case," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 797-803.
  27. Nelson, Erik & Uwasu, Michinori & Polasky, Stephen, 2007. "Voting on open space: What explains the appearance and support of municipal-level open space conservation referenda in the United States?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 580-593, May.
  28. Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2013. "Forecasting leadership transitions around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 575-591.
  29. Berggren, Niclas & Jordahl, Henrik & Stern, Charlotta, 2007. "The Political Opinions of Swedish Social Scientists," Working Paper Series 711, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  30. Cole, Shawn & Healy, Andrew & Werker, Eric, 2012. "Do voters demand responsive governments? Evidence from Indian disaster relief," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 167-181.
  31. Fabio Alvim Klein, 2014. "Do Opportunistic And Partisan Fiscalcycles Come Together?," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 060, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  32. Blomberg, S. Brock, 2000. "Modeling political change with a regime-switching model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 739-762, November.
  33. Muhammad Shahid Akram & Toseef Azid, 2006. "Economics of Regaining Office: The Case of Pakistan (1947-2005)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 913-923.
  34. Sinha, Pankaj & Bansal, Ashok, 2008. "Hierarchical Bayes prediction for the 2008 US Presidential election," MPRA Paper 10470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Fox, Gerald & Phillips, Earl N., 2003. "Interrelationship between presidential approval, presidential votes and macroeconomic performance, 1948-2000," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 411-424, September.
  36. Ray Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2389, Yale School of Management, revised 18 Mar 2007.
  37. William D. Nordhaus, 1989. "Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 1-68.
  38. Di Tella, Rafael & Fisman, Raymond, 2004. "Are Politicians Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 477-513, October.
  39. Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Politics and the Stock Market � Evidence from Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1203, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  40. Uwasu, Michinori & Nelson, Erik & Polasky, Stephen, 2005. "Voting on Open Space: An Analysis of the Decision to Hold a Referendum and of Referendum Results," Staff Papers 13837, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  41. Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2011. "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 699-706, July.
  42. He, Janet & Renshaw, Edward & Szelest, Bruce, 1998. "Modeling the Outcome of Presidential Elections Using Economic Variables: The Smart Use of Dummy Variables," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 251-259, April.
  43. Juergen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2008. "Corporate campaign contributions and abnormal stock returns after presidential elections," Working Papers 2008-18, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  44. Soós, Károly Attila, 2005. "Választási gazdaságpolitika és a folyó fizetési mérleg alakulása Közép-Kelet-Európában
    [Election-time economic policy and current-account developments in Central-East Europe]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 960-990.
  45. Harry Garretsen & Janka I. Stoker & Rob Alessie & Joris Lammers, 2014. "Simply a Matter of Luck & Looks? Predicting Elections when Both the World Economy and the Psychology of Faces Count," CESifo Working Paper Series 4857, CESifo Group Munich.
  46. Richard Cebula & Franklin Mixon, 2012. "Dodging the vote?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 325-343, February.
  47. Eric J. Brunner & Stephen L. Ross & Ebonya L. Washington, 2008. "Economics and Ideology: Causal Evidence of the Impact of Economic Conditions on Support for Redistribution and Other Ballot Proposals," NBER Working Papers 14091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. Stephen Haynes & Joe Stone, 2008. "A disaggregate approach to economic models of voting in U.S. presidential elections: forecasts of the 2008 election," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(28), pages 1-11.
  49. Burke Paul J., 2012. "Economic Growth and Political Survival," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-43, March.
  50. Cerda, Rodrigo & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2008. "Government Subsidies and Presidential Election Outcomes: Evidence for a Developing Country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2470-2488, November.
  51. Conconi, Paola & Sahuguet, Nicolas, 2009. "Policymakers' horizon and the sustainability of international cooperation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 549-558, April.
  52. repec:dgr:uvatin:20080101 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Sidman, Andrew H. & Mak, Maxwell & Lebo, Matthew J., 2008. "Forecasting non-incumbent presidential elections: Lessons learned from the 2000 election," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 237-258.
  54. Byung Soh, 1988. "Political instability and economic fluctuations in the Republic of Korea," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 259-274, June.
  55. repec:dgr:kubcen:199898 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Larcinese, Valentino & Puglisi, Riccardo & Snyder Jr., James M., 2011. "Partisan bias in economic news: Evidence on the agenda-setting behavior of U.S. newspapers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(9-10), pages 1178-1189, October.
  57. Wolfers, Justin, 2002. "Are Voters Rational? Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections," Research Papers 1730, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  58. Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Vergara, 2007. "Business cycle and political election outcomes: Evidence from the Chilean democracy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 125-136, July.
  59. Candel-Sanchez, Francisco, 2007. "Incentives for budget discipline in the presence of elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 863-884, December.
  60. David Mitchell & Keith Willett, 2006. "Local Economic Performance and Election Outcomes," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(2), pages 219-232, June.
  61. Robert Michaels, 1986. "Reinterpreting the role of inflation in politico-economic models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 113-124, January.
  62. Elena Costas-Pérez, 2014. "Political corruption and voter turnout: mobilization or disaffection?," Working Papers 2014/27, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  63. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2006. "Stock Market Volatility around National Elections," Working Paper Series 2006,2, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
  64. Ali Alichi, 2008. "A Model of Sovereign Debt in Democracies," IMF Working Papers 08/152, International Monetary Fund.
  65. Mikael Elinder & Henrik Jordahl & Panu Poutvaara, 2008. "Selfish and Prospective: Theory and Evidence of Pocketbook Voting," CESifo Working Paper Series 2489, CESifo Group Munich.
  66. Antoine Auberger, 2012. "Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 329-340, December.
  67. Alan S. Blinder & Mark W. Watson, 2014. "Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration," NBER Working Papers 20324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Gikas Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Papers 0003, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
  69. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2004. "Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies," NBER Working Papers 10539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. Ari Aisen, 2004. "Money-Based Versus Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization; Is there Space for Political Opportunism?," IMF Working Papers 04/94, International Monetary Fund.
  71. Steven Block & Burkhard N. Schrage & Paul M. Vaaler, 2003. "Democratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 546, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  72. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2007. "Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election," IZA Discussion Papers 2881, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  73. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2005. "How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Cross-Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 11862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  74. Leblanc, William & Snyder, James Jr. & Tripathi, Micky, 2000. "Majority-rule bargaining and the under provision of public investment goods," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 21-47, January.
  75. Fox, Gerald T., 2012. "Macroeconomic time consistency and wartime presidential approval," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 891-902.
  76. Mixon, Franklin Jr. & Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 2004. "Examining legislative challenges to central bank autonomy: macroeconomic and agency costs models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 415-428.
  77. Jeffrey S. DeSimone & Courtney LaFountain, 2007. "Still the Economy, Stupid: Economic Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election," NBER Working Papers 13549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  78. Hibbs, Douglas A, Jr, 2000. " Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1-2), pages 149-80, July.
  79. Tandon, Sharad, 2012. "Economic reform, voting, and local political intervention: Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 221-231.
  80. Daniel J. Benjamin & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2009. "Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 523-536, August.
  81. Maggie E. C. Jones & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Michael Ksawery Popiel, 2014. "A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support," CREATES Research Papers 2014-23, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  82. Sinha, Pankaj & Thomas, Ashley Rose & Ranjan, Varun, 2012. "Forecasting 2012 United States Presidential election using Factor Analysis, Logit and Probit Models," MPRA Paper 42062, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  83. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2008. "Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 227-236.
  84. Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2009. "Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates," MPRA Paper 16461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  85. Pankaj Sinha & Aastha Sharma & Harsh Vardhan Singh, 2012. "Prediction For The 2012 United States Presidential Election Using Multiple Regression Model," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(2), pages 77-97.
  86. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2003. "Where Does the Political Budget Cycle Really Come From?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  87. Robert J. Blendon, 1997. "Bridging the Gap between the Public's and Economists' Views of the Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 105-118, Summer.
  88. Jennifer Merolla & Michael Munger & Michael Tofias, 2005. "In Play: A Commentary on Strategies in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 19-37, April.
  89. Wilko Letterie & Otto Swank, 1997. "Electoral and partisan cycles between US economic performance and presidential popularity: a comment on Stephen E. Haynes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1585-1592.
  90. Frederic S. Mishkin & Niklas J. Westelius, 2006. "Inflation Band Targeting and Optimal Inflation Contracts," NBER Working Papers 12384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  91. Paola Assael & Felipe Larraín, 1994. "El Ciclo Político-económico: Teoría, Evidencia y Extensión para una Economía Abierta," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(92), pages 87-114.
  92. Paola Assael & Felipe Larraín, 1995. "Cincuenta Años de Ciclo Político-Económico en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 32(96), pages 129-150.
  93. Ali Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2006. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 77-105, October.
  94. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:1:y:2004:i:5:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  95. Janet Pack, 1987. "The political policy cycle: Presidential effort vs. presidential control," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 231-259, August.
  96. Amir Horkin & Ytzhak Katz & Baruch Mevorach, 2014. "Perceived crisis management and its effect on re-election: the case of local government in Israel under the Second Lebanon War," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 2993-3011, November.
  97. Kouvavas, Omiros, 2013. "Political Budget Cycles Revisited, the Case for Social Capital," MPRA Paper 57504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2013.
  98. Alesina, Alberto, et al, 1996. " Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
  99. Brown, Lloyd B. & Chappell Jr., Henry W., 1999. "Forecasting presidential elections using history and polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 127-135, April.
  100. Kächelein, Holger & Lami, Endrit & Imami, Drini, 2010. "Elections related cycles in publicly supplied goods in Albania," BERG Working Paper Series 71, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  101. Fidrmuc, J., 1998. "Political Support for Reforms : Economics of Voting in Transition Countries," Discussion Paper 1998-98, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  102. Ray C. Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-share Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1602, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  103. Luisa Lambertini, 2003. "Are Budget Deficits Used Strategically?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 578, Boston College Department of Economics.
  104. Souren Soumbatiants & Henry Chappell & Eric Johnson, 2006. "Using state polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 207-223, April.
  105. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2008:i:28:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
  106. Fernandez, Juan J., 2010. "Economic crises, high public pension spending and blame-avoidance strategies: Pension policy retrenchments in 14 social-insurance countries, 1981 - 2005," MPIfG Discussion Paper 10/9, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
  107. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00907277 is not listed on IDEAS
  108. Spyros Skouras & Nicos Christodoulakis, 2011. "Electoral Misgovernance Cycles: Evidence from wildfires and tax evasion in Greece and elsewhere," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 47, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  109. Alesina, Alberto Francesco & Perotti, Roberto & Tavares, Jose, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Scholarly Articles 12553724, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  110. Juan Carlos Berganza, 2000. "Politicians, voters and electoral processes: an overview," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(3), pages 501-543, September.
  111. Ulrich Lächler, 1984. "The political business cycle under rational voting behavior," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 411-430, January.
  112. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2008. "Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies," MPRA Paper 9829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  113. Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2004. "Voting and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers in Economics 144, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 05 Oct 2004.
  114. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
  115. Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2015. "Optimal Weather Conditions, Economic Growth, and Political Transitions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 16-30.
  116. Rosa C. Hayes & Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2013. "Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence from Trade Shocks," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2013-009, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
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