Economic crises, high public pension spending and blame-avoidance strategies: Pension policy retrenchments in 14 social-insurance countries, 1981 - 2005
This paper examines the determinants of the timing of public pension policy retrenchments in 14 affluent democracies. Available research does not satisfactorily capture the multidimensionality of these legislative events, because it relies on indicators of pension policy provisions for current pensioners even though recent retrenchment pension reforms have been characterized by phased-in or grandfathering measures. Instead, this paper identifies these events by considering the individual long-term implications of each pension reform passed in 14 OECD social-insurance countries between 1981 and 2005. Based on a synthetic review of the pension policy literature, data from financial projections, and principles from the economics of welfare programs, I identify 62 pension retrenchments passed in these countries. My argument is that macroeconomic conditions, size of public pension system, and stage in the electoral cycle shape the likelihood of pension retrenchments. Results obtained from conditional frailty models for recurrent and sequential events support this argument. The interval between pension retrenchments is shorter in countries with low economic growth and high public pension spending, as well as in countries in a post-election year.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Paulstr. 3, 50676 Köln|
Phone: + 49 (0) 221-2767-0
Web page: http://www.mpifg.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lyle Scruggs, 2006. "The Generosity of Social Insurance, 1971--2002," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 349-364, Autumn.
- Ray C. Fair, 1976.
"The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May.
- Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3.
- John McHale, 2001.
"The Risk of Social Security Benefit-Rule Changes: Some International Evidence,"
in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 247-290
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John McHale, 1999. "The Risk of Social Security Benefit Rule Changes: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kemmerling, Achim, 2002. "The employment effects of different regimes of welfare state taxation: An empirical analysis of core OECD countries," MPIfG Discussion Paper 02/8, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
- Mark Mink & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Are there Political Budget Cycles in the Euro Area?," European Union Politics, , vol. 7(2), pages 191-211, June.
- Sheetal K. Chand & Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund.
- Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
- Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
- Andrea Boltho & Andrew Glyn, 2006. "Prudence or Profligacy: Deficits, Debt, and Fiscal Consolidation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 411-425, Autumn.
- Peter Whiteford & Edward Whitehouse, 2006. "Pension Challenges and Pension Reforms in Oecd Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 78-94, Spring.
- Kittel, Bernhard & Obinger, Herbert, 2002. "Political parties, institutions, and the dynamics of social expenditure in times of austerity," MPIfG Discussion Paper 02/1, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.