The Risk of Social Security Benefit-Rule Changes: Some International Evidence
In: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform
Against a background of projections of sharply increasing elderly dependency rates, workers in the major industrial economies are apprehensive that their social security benefit entitlements will be cut before or after they retire, leaving them with inadequate retirement income. This paper looks at recent benefit rule changes in the G7 countries to see what can be learned about such political risk in PAYG pension systems. From this small sample, I find that projections of rising costs under current rules are inducing reforms, and that these reforms often have a major impact on the present discounted value of promised benefits for middle-aged and younger workers. Usually, however, the benefits of the retired and those nearing retirement are protected. The phasing in of benefit cuts raises the question as to why younger workers are willing to take significant cuts in their implicit wealth while protecting the currently old. One possible answer is explored through a simple model: these workers fear even larger cuts in their benefits if the tax burden on future workers rises too high.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|This chapter was published in: ||This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number
10596.||Handle:|| RePEc:nbr:nberch:10596||Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Feldstein, Martin, 1996.
"The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
- Martin Feldstein, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," NBER Working Papers 5413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Geanakoplos & Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated". "Social Security Money's Worth," Pension Research Council Working Papers 97-20, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
- John Geanakoplos & Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2000. "Social Security Money's Worth," NBER Working Papers 6722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geanakoplos, J. & Mitchell, O.S. & Zeldes, S.P., 1998. "Social Security Money's Worth," Papers 98-05, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- John Geanakoplos & Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1998. "Social Security Money's Worth," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- John Geanakoplos & Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated". "Social Security Money's Worth," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-9, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
- John Geanakoplos & Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1998. "Social Security Money's Worth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1193, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1997. "It's high time to privatize," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 41(Jun), pages 293-296.
- Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1998. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Chapters,in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 215-264 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1996. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Working Papers 5761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- A. Javier Hamann, 1997. "The Reform of the Pension System in Italy," IMF Working Papers 97/18, International Monetary Fund.
- Richard Hemming, 1998. "Should Public Pensions be Funded?," IMF Working Papers 98/35, International Monetary Fund.
- Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
- Takayama, Noriyuki, 2005. "Pension Reform in Japan," Discussion Paper 253, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- János Kornai & John McHale, 2000. "Is Post-Communist Health Spending Unusual?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 369-399, July.
- Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub99-1, Enero-Jun. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:10596. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.