The state of presidential election forecasting: The 2004 experience

This paper assesses the current state of U. S. presidential election forecasting, describing forecast methods and their predictive accuracies for the most recent election, 2004. Three types of forecasts were made for the election using the methods noted: 1) point forecasts of the popular vote (by campaign polls, futures contracts on candidates' performance, regression models, Delphi expert surveys, and a combination of forecasts from these methods); 2) point forecasts of the electoral vote (by regression models, probability models based on state polls, a compilation of median polls in states, and exit polls); and 3) dichotomous forecasts of the popular-vote winner (by a multi-indicator index, cut-points for single indicators, and bellwether states). Candidate futures provided the most accurate popular-vote forecasts. A state probability model and the median state poll technique were the most accurate electoral vote methods. All three dichotomous techniques successfully predicted the election winner.