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Perceived crisis management and its effect on re-election: the case of local government in Israel under the Second Lebanon War


  • Amir Horkin
  • Ytzhak Katz
  • Baruch Mevorach



The performance of local authority heads in times of emergency is a topic that has apparently received very little attention in the research literature. The same is true with regards to the relationship between performance and re-election chances in crisis situations. The hybrid macro polity view makes it possible to ‘pit’ the rational school of objective performance against the bounded rationality school of perceived performance. We examine which of the two is better at explaining the replacement or re-election of the incumbent local authority head in 17 local authorities in the North of Israel, after the Second Lebanon War. In the “Beauty Queen” contest between perceived and objective performance, the perceived performance appears to be a clear winner. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Amir Horkin & Ytzhak Katz & Baruch Mevorach, 2014. "Perceived crisis management and its effect on re-election: the case of local government in Israel under the Second Lebanon War," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 2993-3011, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:48:y:2014:i:6:p:2993-3011
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-013-9936-z

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bernhardt, M. Daniel & Ingerman, Daniel E., 1985. "Candidate reputations and the `incumbency effect'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 47-67, June.
    2. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    3. Brender, Adi, 2003. "The effect of fiscal performance on local government election results in Israel: 1989-1998," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2187-2205, September.
    4. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
    5. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135-135.
    6. Gregg G. Van Ryzin, 2004. "Expectations, performance, and citizen satisfaction with urban services," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 433-448.
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