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Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method

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  • Armstrong, J. Scott
  • Graefe, Andreas

Abstract

This study uses 59 biographical variables to create a "bio-index" for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The bio-index method counts the number of variables for which each candidate rates favorably, and the forecast is that the candidate with the highest score would win the popular vote. The bio-index relies on different information and includes more variables than traditional econometric election forecasting models. The method is useful in combination with simple linear regression to estimate a relationship between the index score of the candidate of the incumbent party and his share of the popular vote. The study tests the model for the 29 U.S. presidential elections from 1896 to 2008. The model's forecasts, calculated by cross-validation, correctly predicted the popular vote winner for 27 of the 29 elections; this performance compares favorably to forecasts from polls (15 out of 19), prediction markets (22 out of 26), and three econometric models (12 to 13 out of 15 to 16). Out-of-sample forecasts of the two-party popular vote for the four elections from 1996 to 2008 yielded a forecast error almost as low as the best of seven econometric models. The model can help parties to select the candidates running for office, and help to improve on the accuracy of election forecasting, especially for longer-term forecasts.

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  • Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2011. "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 699-706, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:64:y:2011:i:7:p:699-706
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
    2. Graefe, Andreas, 2023. "Embrace the differences: Revisiting the PollyVote method of combining forecasts for U.S. presidential elections (2004 to 2020)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 170-177.
    3. David Stadelmann & Marco Portmann & Reiner Eichenberger, 2018. "Military Service of Politicians, Public Policy, and Parliamentary Decisions," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 64(4), pages 639-666.
    4. Philippe Jacquart & J. Scott Armstrong, 2013. "The Ombudsman: Are Top Executives Paid Enough? An Evidence-Based Review," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 43(6), pages 580-589, December.
    5. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
    6. Marco Portmann & David Stadelmann, 2013. "Testing the Median Voter Model and Moving Beyond its Limits: Do Characteristics of Politicians Matter?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2013-05, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    7. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Illusions in Regression Analysis," MPRA Paper 81663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Woike, Jan K. & Hoffrage, Ulrich & Petty, Jeffrey S., 2015. "Picking profitable investments: The success of equal weighting in simulated venture capitalist decision making," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1705-1716.
    9. Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Improving forecasts using equally weighted predictors," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1792-1799.
    10. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott & Jones, Randall J. & Cuzan, Alfred G., 2017. "Assessing the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Popular Vote Forecasts," MPRA Paper 83282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Andreas Graefe & Kesten C Green & J Scott Armstrong, 2019. "Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, January.
    12. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott & Jones, Randall J. & Cuzán, Alfred G., 2014. "Combining forecasts: An application to elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 43-54.
    13. Cote, Joseph A., 2011. "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A commentary essay," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 696-698, July.

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