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The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications

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  • DAVID PATON
  • DONALD S. SIEGEL
  • LEIGHTON VAUGHAN WILLIAMS

Abstract

In recent years, there has been a substantial global increase in gambling and prediction markets, including casinos, sports betting, lotteries, elections and wagering on financial instruments. This trend has heightened interest in numerous economic and financial issues related to this sector. These include questions relating to the efficiency of these markets, heterogeneity in risk attitudes among economic agents, and the use of prediction markets in policy analysis. The papers in this special issue provide a mix of theoretical and empirical evidence on these issues.

Suggested Citation

  • David Paton & Donald S. Siegel & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2009. "The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 219-224, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:76:y:2009:i:302:p:219-224
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00753.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2007. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 807-829.
    2. Jacob K. Goeree & Charles A. Holt, 2001. "Ten Little Treasures of Game Theory and Ten Intuitive Contradictions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1402-1422, December.
    3. Richard Borghesi, 2007. "Price Biases in a Prediction Market: NFL Contracts on Tradesports," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(3), pages 233-253, December.
    4. Michael A. Smith & David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2006. "Market Efficiency in Person‐to‐Person Betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 673-689, November.
    5. Paton, David & Siegel, Donald S. & Williams, Leighton Vaughan, 2004. "Taxation and the Demand for Gambling: New Evidence From the United Kingdom," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 57(4), pages 847-861, December.
    6. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
    7. Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 1999. "Information Efficiency in Betting Markets: A Survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, January.
    8. McKelvey Richard D. & Palfrey Thomas R., 1995. "Quantal Response Equilibria for Normal Form Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 6-38, July.
    9. David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2005. "Forecasting outcomes in spread betting markets: can bettors use 'quarbs' to beat the book?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 139-154.
    10. David Paton & Donald S. Siegel & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2002. "A Policy Response To The E--Commerce Revolution: The Case Of Betting Taxation In The UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages 296-314, June.
    11. Williams, Leighton Vaughan & Paton, David, 1997. "Why Is There a Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 150-158, January.
    12. Vaughan Williams,Leighton (ed.), 2005. "Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521816038, October.
    13. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuliano Resce & Raffaele Lagravinese & Elisa Benedetti & Sabrina Molinaro, 2019. "Income-related inequality in gambling: evidence from Italy," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1107-1131, December.
    2. Smith, Michael A. & Paton, David & Williams, Leighton Vaughan, 2009. "Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 539-549, August.
    3. Sperb, Luis Felipe Costa & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Ma, Tiejun, 2019. "Keeping a weather eye on prediction markets: The influence of environmental conditions on forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 321-335.
    4. Brian P. Soebbing & Pamela Wicker & Daniel Weimar & Johannes Orlowski, 2021. "How do Bookmakers Interpret Running Performance of Teams in Previous Games? Evidence From the Football Bundesliga," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 231-250, April.
    5. Jaiho Chung & Joon Ho Hwang, 2010. "An Empirical Examination of the Parimutuel Sports Lottery Market versus the Bookmaker Market," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(4), pages 884-905, April.

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