Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?
In this paper we test the hypothesis that bookmakers display superior skills to bettors in predicting the outcome of sporting events by using matched data from traditional bookmaking and person-to-person exchanges. Employing a conditional logistic regression model on horse racing data from the UK we find that, in high liquidity betting markets, betting exchange odds have more predictive value than the corresponding bookmaker odds. To control for potential spillovers between the two markets, we repeat the analysis for cases where prices diverge significantly. Once again, exchange odds yield more valuable information concerning race outcomes than the bookmaker equivalents.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael A. Smith & David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2006. "Market Efficiency in Person-to-Person Betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 673-689, November.
- Ruth N. Bolton & Randall G. Chapman, 1986. "Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(8), pages 1040-1060, August.
- Thomas S. Gruca & Joyce E. Berg, 2007. "Public Information Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(3), pages 219-231, December.
- Shin, Hyun Song, 1993. "Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in a Market for State-Contingent Claims," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1141-1153, September.
- Dowie, Jack A, 1976. "On the Efficiency and Equity of Betting Markets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(17), pages 139-150, May.
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004.
03-025, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- Cain, Michael & Law, David & Peel, David A, 2001. "The Incidence of Insider Trading in Betting Markets and the Gabriel and Marsden Anomaly," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(2), pages 197-207, March.
- Klemperer, Paul, 1999.
" Auction Theory: A Guide to the Literature,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 227-286, July.
- Klemperer, P., 1999. "Auction Theory: a Guide to the Literature," Economics Papers 1999-w12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Paul Klemperer, 1999. "Auction Theory: A Guide to the Literature," Microeconomics 9903002, EconWPA.
- Klemperer, Paul, 1999. "Auction Theory: a Guide to the Literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 2163, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Figlewski, Stephen, 1979. "Subjective Information and Market Efficiency in a Betting Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(1), pages 75-88, February.
- Paul Klemperer, 2004.
"Auctions: Theory and Practice,"
Online economics textbooks,
SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number auction1.
- David Paton & Donald S. Siegel & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2009. "The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 219-224, 04.
- Ron Bird & Michael McCrae, 1987. "Tests of the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Using Bookmaker Odds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(12), pages 1552-1562, December.
- Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, 04.
- Crafts, Nicholas F R, 1985. "Some Evidence of Insider Knowledge in Horse Race Betting in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 52(27), pages 295-304, August.
- repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
- Law, David & Peel, David A, 2002. "Insider Trading, Herding Behaviour and Market Plungers in the British Horse-Race Betting Market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 69(274), pages 327-338, May.
- Jullien, Bruno & Salanie, Bernard, 1994. "Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading: A Comment on Shin," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1418-1419, November.
- Williams, Leighton Vaughan & Paton, David, 1997. "Why Is There a Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 150-158, January.
- Paul Klemperer, 2004. "Introduction to Auctions: Theory and Practice," Introductory Chapters, in: Auctions: Theory and Practice Princeton University Press.
- Tuckwell, R H, 1983. "The Thoroughbred Gambling Market: Efficiency, Equity and Related Issues," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 106-118, June.
- Cain, Michael & Law, David & Peel, David A, 2001. "The Relationship between Two Indicators of Insider Trading in British Racetrack Betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(269), pages 97-104, February.
- Snyder, Wayne W, 1978. "Horse Racing: Testing the Efficient Markets Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1109-1118, September.
- Shin, Hyun Song, 1991. "Optimal Betting Odds against Insider Traders," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1179-1185, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:71:y:2009:i:2:p:539-549. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.