Simulating a basketball match with a homogeneous Markov model and forecasting the outcome
We used a possession-based Markov model to model the progression of a basketball match. The model’s transition matrix was estimated directly from NBA play-by-play data and indirectly from the teams’ summary statistics. We evaluated both this approach and other commonly used forecasting approaches: logit regression of the outcome, a latent strength rating method, and bookmaker odds. We found that the Markov model approach is appropriate for modelling a basketball match and produces forecasts of a quality comparable to that of other statistical approaches, while giving more insight into basketball. Consistent with previous studies, bookmaker odds were the best probabilistic forecasts.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kubatko Justin & Oliver Dean & Pelton Kevin & Rosenbaum Dan T, 2007. "A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-24, July.
- John M. Gandar & William H. Dare & Craig R. Brown & Richard A. Zuber, 1998. "Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 385-401, 02.
- Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.
- Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010.
"Issues in sports forecasting,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
- John M. Gandar & Richard A. Zuber & William H. Dare, 2000. "The Search for Informed Traders in the Totals Betting Market for National Basketball Association Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(2), pages 177-186, May.
- Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008.
"Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange,"
0096, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2009.
- Franck, Egon & Verbeek, Erwin & Nüesch, Stephan, 2010. "Prediction accuracy of different market structures -- bookmakers versus a betting exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 448-459, July.
- Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008. "Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange," Working Papers 0025, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA), revised 2009.
- David J. Berri, 1999. "Who is 'most valuable'? Measuring the player's production of wins in the National Basketball Association," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 411-427.
- Zak, Thomas A & Huang, Cliff J & Siegfried, John J, 1979. "Production Efficiency: The Case of Professional Basketball," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(3), pages 379-92, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:2:p:532-542. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.