Forecasting horse race outcomes: New evidence on odds bias in UK betting markets
Using bookmaker odds data derived from ten seasons of Flat Racing in the UK, we confirm the existence of a favourite-longshot bias; i.e.,Â the expected return to level stake bets placed at shorter odds exceeds that to level stake bets placed at longer odds. We find, however, that the degree of bias declines significantly over the period studied, with a lower bias being evident in the five years after 2000 than in the five preceding seasons. These findings have important implications for methods of forecasting race outcomes that include odds as an endogenous variable. In particular, we conclude that the parameters of the bias need to be re-estimated through time in order to generate the most efficient forecasts based on the prevailing odds distributions.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Snyder, Wayne W, 1978. "Horse Racing: Testing the Efficient Markets Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1109-18, September.
- Raymond D. Sauer, 1998. "The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2021-2064, December.
- Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 1999. "Information Efficiency in Betting Markets: A Survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, January.
- Les Coleman, 2004. "New light on the longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 315-326.
- Michael A. Smith & David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2006. "Market Efficiency in Person-to-Person Betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 673-689, November.
- Law, David & Peel, David A, 2002. "Insider Trading, Herding Behaviour and Market Plungers in the British Horse-Race Betting Market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 69(274), pages 327-38, May.
- Shin, Hyun Song, 1991. "Optimal Betting Odds against Insider Traders," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1179-85, September.
- Shin, Hyun Song, 1993. "Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in a Market for State-Contingent Claims," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1141-53, September.
- Dowie, Jack A, 1976. "On the Efficiency and Equity of Betting Markets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(17), pages 139-50, May.
- Crafts, Nicholas F R, 1985. "Some Evidence of Insider Knowledge in Horse Race Betting in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 52(27), pages 295-304, August.
- John Peirson, 2008. "Expert Analysis and Insider Information in Horse Race Betting: Regulating Informed Market Behaviour," Studies in Economics 0819, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Williams, Leighton Vaughan & Paton, David, 1997. "Why Is There a Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 150-58, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:3:p:543-550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.