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A Note on the Hayek Hypothesis and the Favorite-Longshot Bias in Parimutuel Betting


  • Hurley, William
  • McDonough, Lawrence


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Suggested Citation

  • Hurley, William & McDonough, Lawrence, 1995. "A Note on the Hayek Hypothesis and the Favorite-Longshot Bias in Parimutuel Betting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 949-955, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:85:y:1995:i:4:p:949-55

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1990. "The Pension Inducement to Retire: An Option Value Analysis," NBER Chapters,in: Issues in the Economics of Aging, pages 205-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bound, John, 1989. "The Health and Earnings of Rejected Disability Insurance Applicants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 482-503, June.
    8. Jonathan Gruber & Brigitte C. Madrian, 1996. "Health Insurance and Early Retirement: Evidence from the Availability of Continuation Coverage," NBER Chapters,in: Advances in the Economics of Aging, pages 115-146 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Glenn T. Sueyoshi, 1989. "Social Security and the Determinants of Full and Partial Retirement: A Competing Risks Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Gloria J. Bazzoli, 1985. "The Early Retirement Decision: New Empirical Evidence on the Influence of Health," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 20(2), pages 214-234.
    11. Gary Burtless, 1986. "Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increases, and the Timing of Retirement," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 781-805.
    12. Hurd, Michael D, 1990. "Research on the Elderly: Economic Status, Retirement, and Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 565-637, June.
    13. Jerry A. Hausman & David A. Wise, 1985. "Social Security, Health Status, and Retirement," NBER Chapters,in: Pensions, Labor, and Individual Choice, pages 159-192 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kajii, Atsushi & Watanabe, Takahiro, 2017. "Favorite–longshot bias in pari-mutuel betting: An evolutionary explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 56-69.
    2. Jinook Jeong & Jee Young Kim & Yoon Jae Ro, 2017. "On the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Market: A New Test for the Favorite-Longshot Bias," Working papers 2017rwp-106, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    3. Maschke Mario & Schmidt Ulrich, 2011. "Das Wettmonopol in Deutschland: Status quo und Reformansätze," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 110-124, April.
    4. Frédéric Koessler & Anthony Ziegelmeyer & Marie-Hélène Broihanne, 2003. "The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Sequential Parimutuel Betting with Non-Expected Utility Players," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 231-248, May.
    5. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2009. "Surprised by the Parimutuel Odds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2129-2134, December.
    6. Koessler, Frédéric & Noussair, Charles & Ziegelmeyer, Anthony, 2008. "Parimutuel betting under asymmetric information," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 733-744, July.
    7. Lambert, Nicolas S. & Langford, John & Wortman Vaughan, Jennifer & Chen, Yiling & Reeves, Daniel M. & Shoham, Yoav & Pennock, David M., 2015. "An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 389-416.
    8. David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2005. "Forecasting outcomes in spread betting markets: can bettors use 'quarbs' to beat the book?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 139-154.
    9. John Peirson & Michael A. Smith, 2010. "Symposium Expert Analysis and Insider Information in Horse Race Betting: Regulating Informed Market Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 976-992, April.
    10. Erhan Bayraktar & Alexander Munk, 2016. "High-Roller Impact: A Large Generalized Game Model of Parimutuel Wagering," Papers 1605.03653,, revised Mar 2017.
    11. Russell Sobel & S. Travis Raines, 2003. "An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 371-385.
    12. Boyle, Glenn & Guthrie, Graeme & Gorton, Luke, 2006. "My Kingdom for a Horse: Resolving Conflicts of Interest in Asset Management," Working Paper Series 3834, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    13. Leighton Vaughan Williams & David Paton, 1998. "Why are some favourite-longshot biases positive and others negative?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(11), pages 1505-1510.
    14. Charles N. Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2013. "Experimental Research On Asset Pricing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 554-569, July.
    15. Ming-Feng Hung & Bin-Tzong Chie & Tai-Hsin Huang, 2017. "Residential water demand and water waste in Taiwan," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(2), pages 249-268, April.
    16. Bjerksund, Petter & Stensland, Gunnar, 2017. "Profitable Robot Strategies in Pari-Mutuel Betting," Discussion Papers 2017/6, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.

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