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A natural experiment for efficient markets: Information quality and influential agents

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  • Mills, Brian M.
  • Salaga, Steven

Abstract

We test the integration of repeated decision making of influential agents in asset prices. Our approach exploits a natural experiment in the Major League Baseball (MLB) betting market, where umpire assignments are revealed only for certain games, using over 2.5 million decisions made by these officials. Estimations reveal only partial adjustment to information related to umpire behavioral heterogeneity. We show this is exploitable by informed bettors, providing advantages over more salient, lower quality information. These results suggest that underlying information on influential individual decision making can serve as a high quality indicator of asset values due to persistence across time.

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  • Mills, Brian M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "A natural experiment for efficient markets: Information quality and influential agents," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 23-39.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:40:y:2018:i:c:p:23-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2018.07.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Jyh-How Huang & Yu-Chia Hsu, 2021. "A Multidisciplinary Perspective on Publicly Available Sports Data in the Era of Big Data: A Scoping Review of the Literature on Major League Baseball," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, November.
    2. Green, Lawrence & Sung, Ming-Chien & Ma, Tiejun & Johnson, Johnnie E. V., 2019. "To what extent can new web-based technology improve forecasts? Assessing the economic value of information derived from Virtual Globes and its rate of diffusion in a financial market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 226-239.
    3. Finigan, Duncan & Mills, Brian M. & Stone, Daniel F., 2020. "Pulling starters," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Montone, Maurizio, 2021. "Optimal pricing in the online betting market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 344-363.
    5. Brian P. Soebbing & Pamela Wicker & Daniel Weimar & Johannes Orlowski, 2021. "How do Bookmakers Interpret Running Performance of Teams in Previous Games? Evidence From the Football Bundesliga," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 231-250, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market efficiency; Betting markets; Behavior; Baseball;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

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