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Ciclo político de los negocios y tamaño municipal: Colombia 1989-2008

Author

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  • Néstor Rubiano Páez

Abstract

Este ensayo realiza una prueba empírica de la hipótesis del “ciclo político de los negocios” en 547 municipios colombianos en el período 1989-2008. El trabajo econométrico indica que en los municipios de categoría 6 (los más pequeños) y categoría 4, el gasto de inversión y el déficit fiscal exhiben tal ciclo: los gobernantes los amplían en época pre-electoral y luego los contraen. Los resultados se sitúan en el contexto social colombiano para entender por qué el ciclo se presenta en esos municipios y coincide con baja eficiencia del gasto público en la lucha contra la pobreza medida según NBI. Recomienda algunas acciones de política para atenuar los efectos adversos del ciclo político y mejorar tal eficiencia

Suggested Citation

  • Néstor Rubiano Páez, 2011. "Ciclo político de los negocios y tamaño municipal: Colombia 1989-2008," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(25), pages 105-136, July-Dece.
  • Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:13:y:2011:i:25:p:105-136
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    File URL: http://www.uexternado.edu.co/facecono/ecoinstitucional/workingpapers/nrubiano25.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    2. Cadena Ximena, 2002. "¿La descentralización empereza? Efecto de las transferencias sobre los ingresos tributarios municipales en Colombia," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, September.
    3. Drazen, Allan & Eslava, Marcela, 2010. "Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 39-52, May.
    4. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    5. Allan DRAZEN & Marcela ESLAVA, 2003. "The political business cycle in Colombia on the National and Regional level," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 003616, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economía política; ciclos fiscales electorales; finanzas públicas municipales; Colombia;

    JEL classification:

    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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