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Ciclo político de los negocios y tamaño municipal: Colombia 1989-2008

  • Néstor Rubiano Páez
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    Este ensayo realiza una prueba empírica de la hipótesis del “ciclo político de los negocios” en 547 municipios colombianos en el período 1989-2008. El trabajo econométrico indica que en los municipios de categoría 6 (los más pequeños) y categoría 4, el gasto de inversión y el déficit fiscal exhiben tal ciclo: los gobernantes los amplían en época pre-electoral y luego los contraen. Los resultados se sitúan en el contexto social colombiano para entender por qué el ciclo se presenta en esos municipios y coincide con baja eficiencia del gasto público en la lucha contra la pobreza medida según NBI. Recomienda algunas acciones de política para atenuar los efectos adversos del ciclo político y mejorar tal eficiencia

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    File URL: http://www.uexternado.edu.co/facecono/ecoinstitucional/workingpapers/nrubiano25.pdf
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    Article provided by Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía in its journal Revista de Economía Institucional.

    Volume (Year): 13 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 25 (July-December)
    Pages: 105-136

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    Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:13:y:2011:i:25:p:105-136
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    1. Ximena Cadena, 2002. "¿LA DESCENTRALIZACIÓN EMPEREZA? Efecto de las Transferencias Sobre los Ingresos Tributarios Municipales en Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003813, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    2. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May.
    3. Drazen, Allan & Eslava, Marcela, 2010. "Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 39-52, May.
    4. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
    5. Allan DRAZEN & Marcela ESLAVA, 2003. "The political business cycle in Colombia on the National and Regional level," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 003616, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
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