IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/r/pal/imfstp/v49y2002i2p2.html
   My bibliography  Save this item

The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as


Cited by:

  1. Bi Goli Jean Jacques Iritié & Fabrice Soukou Djaléga, 2016. "Diversification of income sources for cocoa farm households: a case study of the Central West of Côte d'Ivoire," African Journal of Economic and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 230-265.
  2. Nchofoung, Tii N., 2022. "Trade shocks and labour market resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the franc zone response differently?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 161-174.
  3. Dennis Alvaro & Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2017. "Modelling the volatility of commodities prices using a stochastic volatility model with random level shifts," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 71-103, February.
  4. Gilles Dufrénot & Kimiko Sugimoto, 2013. "West African Single Currency and Competitiveness," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 763-777, November.
  5. Valiante, Diego, 2011. "Commodity Prices in Boom-and-Bust Cycles," ECMI Papers 5716, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11711 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Bilge Erten, 2010. "Industrial Upgrading and Export Diversification: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Policies in Turkey and Malaysia," Working Papers id:2778, eSocialSciences.
  8. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Chakriya Bowman, 2004. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment," IMF Working Papers 2004/041, International Monetary Fund.
  9. George Verikios, 2004. "A Model of the World Wool Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  10. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2008. "Commodity Prices in Argentina. What Does Move the Wind?," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
  11. Sanidas, Elias, 2005. "The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis," Economics Working Papers wp05-29, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  12. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Commodity Terms of Trade: The History of Booms and Busts," IMF Working Papers 2009/205, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Rabah Arezki & Daniel Lederman & Hongyan Zhao, 2014. "The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices: A Reappraisal," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(3), pages 939-951.
  14. Shernaz Bodhanwala & Harsh Purohit & Nidhi Choudhary, 2020. "The Causal Dynamics in Indian Agriculture Commodity Prices and Macro-Economic Variables in the Presence of a Structural Break," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 241-261, February.
  15. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
  16. Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "The Long-Run Forecasting of Energy Prices Using the Model of Shifting Trend," Econometrics 0502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Nicholas Ngepah & Margarida Liandra Andrade da Silva & Charles Shaaba Saba, 2022. "The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks on Banking System Stability in Developing Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, April.
  18. Hachula, Michael & Hoffmann, Sebastian, 2015. "The output effects of commodity price volatility: Evidence from exporting countries," Discussion Papers 2015/29, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  19. Jean-François Carpantier, 2021. "Commodity Prices in Empirical Research," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 199-227, Springer.
  20. Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2011. "The Rise of China in Sub-Saharan Africa: its Ambiguous Economic Impacts," Post-Print halshs-00636022, HAL.
  21. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2591-2600, July.
  22. Tharcisse NKUNZIMANA & François Kayitakire, 2013. "Measuring food price volatility and transmission in West Africa: How important are magnitudes of transmission across cereals and countries?," EcoMod2013 5219, EcoMod.
  23. Tuinstra, Jan & Wegener, Michael & Westerhoff, Frank, 2014. "Positive welfare effects of trade barriers in a dynamic partial equilibrium model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 246-264.
  24. Ehrlich, Lars G., 2018. "What drives nickel prices: A structural VAR approach," HWWI Research Papers 186, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  25. Yves Jégourel, 2018. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question," Policy notes & Policy briefs 1824, Policy Center for the New South.
  26. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects across petroleum spot and futures volatilities, trading volume and open interest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 104-118.
  27. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Lahiani, Amine & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2021. "Uncovering the complex asymmetric relationship between trading activity and commodity futures price: Evidenced from QNARDL study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  28. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
  29. Dieci, Roberto & Mignot, Sarah & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2022. "Production delays, supply distortions and endogenous price dynamics," BERG Working Paper Series 182, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  30. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
  31. Huang, Wen & Huang, Zhuo & Matei, Marius & Wang, Tianyi, 2012. "Price Volatility Forecast for Agricultural Commodity Futures: The Role of High Frequency Data," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 83-103, December.
  32. Cécile Couharde & Vincent Géronimi & Armand Taranco, 2012. "Les hausses récentes des cours des matières premières traduisent-elles l'entrée dans un régime de prix plus élevés ?," Revue Tiers-Monde, Armand Colin, vol. 0(3), pages 13-34.
  33. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
  34. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
  35. Amber Wadsworth & Adam Richardson, 2017. "A factor model of commodity price co-movements: An application to New Zealand export prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2017/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  36. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2017. "Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 744-763, June.
  37. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 204-216.
  38. Syed Jawaid & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Terms of Trade and its Volatility on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Investigation," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(2), pages 217-229, December.
  39. Awel, Ahmed Mohammed, 2012. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 45453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Rabah Arezki & Kaddour Hadri & Prakash Loungani & Yao Rao, 2013. "Breaking the Dynamic of Relative Primary Commodity Prices in Levels and Volatilities since 1650," Economics Working Papers 13-02, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
  41. Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2010. "What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 2010/129, International Monetary Fund.
  42. Mr. A. Salehizadeh & Mr. Peter Berezin & Mr. Elcior Santana, 2002. "The Challenge of Diversification in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2002/196, International Monetary Fund.
  43. Karoline Krätschel & Torsten Schmidt, 2012. "Long-run Trends or Short-run Fluctuations – What Establishes the Correlation between Oil and Food Prices?The Interplay of Standardized Tests and Incentives – An Econometric Analysis with Data from PIS," Ruhr Economic Papers 0357, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  44. Barbaglia, Luca & Wilms, Ines & Croux, Christophe, 2016. "Commodity dynamics: A sparse multi-class approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 62-72.
  45. John T. Cuddington & Rodney Ludema & Shamila A Jayasuriya, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 140, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
  46. Gabriel Srour, 2004. "Economic Integration, Sectoral Diversification, and Exchange Rate Policy in a Developing Economy," IMF Working Papers 2004/060, International Monetary Fund.
  47. Terheggen, Anne, 2010. "The new kid in the forest: the impact of China's resource demand on Gabon's tropical timber value chain," MPRA Paper 37982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  48. O'Connell, Arturo, 2001. "The return of "vulnerability" and Raul Prebisch's early thinking on the "Argentine business cycle"," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
  49. Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
  50. Munir Jalil & Esteban Tamayo, 2011. "Pass-through of International Food Prices to Domestic Inflation During and After the Great Recession: Evidence from a Set of Latin American Economies," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, June.
  51. Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Commodity-price volatility and macroeconomic spillovers: Evidence from nine emerging markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 23-37.
  52. Kablan, Sandrine & Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled, 2017. "Commodity price cycles and financial pressures in African commodities exporters," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 215-231.
  53. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
  54. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Oscar Jaulin-Mendez & Juan C. Bustos-Peláez, 2019. "The Interdependence Between Commodity-Price and GDP Cycles: A Frequency-Domain Approach," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(3), pages 275-292, September.
  55. Alexandros SARRIS, 2014. "Options for Developing Countries to Deal with Global Food Commodity Market Volatility," Working Papers P98, FERDI.
  56. Gabriela Simonet & Julie Subervie & Driss Ezzine-de-Blas & Marina Cromberg & Amy Duchelle, 2015. "Paying smallholders not to cut down the Amazon forest: Impact evaluation of a REDD+ pilot project," Working Papers 15-14, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Oct 2015.
  57. Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda & Abdulai, Awudu, 2013. "Policy reforms and asymmetric price transmission in the Zambian and Tanzanian coffee markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 786-795.
  58. Ocampo, José Antonio & Parra, María Angela, 2003. "The terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
  59. Carlos Caceres & Leandro Medina, 2012. "Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2012/260, International Monetary Fund.
  60. Cohen, Daniel & Villemot, Sébastien & Fally, Thibault, 2006. "In Favour of a Fund to Stabilize Commodity Exporters' Income," CEPR Discussion Papers 5550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  61. Olivier Gervais & Ilan Kolet & René Lalonde, 2010. "A Larger Slice of a Growing Pie: the Role of Emerging Asia in Forecasting Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 75-95, January-J.
  62. Bobenrieth, Eugenio S. & Bobenrieth, Juan R.A. & Wright, Brian D. & Guerra, Ernesto A., 2022. "A Weak Latent Trend Hides Strong Price Predictability: An Empirical Method For An Unrecognized Problem," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322210, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  63. Rooney, Matthew & Nuttall, William J. & Kazantzis, Nikolaos, 2015. "A dynamic model of the global uranium market and the nuclear fuel cycle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 50-60.
  64. Luis Felipe Céspedes C. & David Rappoport W, 2006. "El Fondo Gubernamental de Petróleo de Noruega," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(1), pages 71-78, April.
  65. Antonios Antypas & Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis, 2011. "Volatility Trends and Optimal Portfolios: the Case of Agricultural Commodities," DEOS Working Papers 1113, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  66. Krätschell, Karoline & Schmidt, Torsten, 2013. "Long-run trends or short-run fluctuations What establishes the correlation between oil and food prices?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79798, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  67. Khalil Jebran & Amjad Iqbal & Zia Ur Rehman Rao & Arshad Ali, 2018. "Effects of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(1), pages 1-11, February.
  68. Boussard, Jean-Marc & Gerard, Francoise & Piketty, Marie Gabrielle & Ayouz, Mourad & Voituriez, Tancrede, 2006. "Endogenous risk and long run effects of liberalization in a global analysis framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 457-475, May.
  69. Paolo Paesani & Annalisa Rosselli, 2014. "The Case for a Supra-national Control on Commodities in the post WWII World: Novel Perspectives from FAO and Kaldor Archives," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(1), pages 5-30.
  70. Ahmad R. Jalali‐Naini & Mehdi Asali, 2004. "Cyclical behaviour and shock‐persistence: crude oil prices," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(2), pages 107-131, June.
  71. Gary Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2004. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," NBER Working Papers 10595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Vincenzo Candila & Salvatore Farace, 2018. "On the Volatility Spillover between Agricultural Commodities and Latin American Stock Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.
  73. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2013. "Effects of terms of trade on growth performance of India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 940-946.
  74. Serge Coulombe, 2011. "Lagging Behind: Productivity and the Good Fortune of Canadian Provinces," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 331, June.
  75. Tapia, Carlos & Coulton, Jeff & Saydam, Serkan, 2020. "Using entropy to assess dynamic behaviour of long-term copper price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  76. René Lalonde & Zhenhua Zhu & Frédérick Demers, 2003. "Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
  77. Bellemare, Marc F. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Just, David R., 2010. "The Welfare Impacts of Commodity Price Fluctuations: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 24457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  78. Ocampo, José Antonio & Parra, María Angela, 2003. "Returning to an external debate: the terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century," Series Históricas 7797, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  79. Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Shankar, Rashmi & Trezzi, Riccardo, 2010. "Are commodity prices more volatile now ? a long-run perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5460, The World Bank.
  80. Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
  81. Geronimi, Vincent & Taranco, Armand, 2018. "Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 329-339.
  82. Federico Bonaglia & Kichiro Fukasaku, 2003. "Export Diversification In Low-Income Countries: An International Challenge After Doha," Development and Comp Systems 0307001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  83. Bastourre, Diego, 2008. "Cambio fundamental o especulación financiera en los mercados de commodities? Un modelo con ajuste no lineal al equilibrio [Structural break or financial speculation in commodity markets? A multivar," MPRA Paper 9910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  84. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2023. "Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  85. Vasyl Golosnoy & Anja Rossen, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of metal price series via state space approach with two common factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1477-1501, June.
  86. Diego Bastourre, 2008. "Inversores Financieros en los Mercados de Commodities: Un Modelo con Dinámica de Ajuste no Lineal al Equilibrio," IIE, Working Papers 072, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  87. Gabriel Srour, 2006. "The Implications of Trade Barriers for Sectoral Diversification and Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2006/050, International Monetary Fund.
  88. André Varella Mollick & João Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Can globalisation stop the decline in commodities' terms of trade?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(5), pages 683-701, September.
  89. Baffes, John & Haniotis, Tassos, 2010. "Placing the 2006/08 commodity price boom into perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5371, The World Bank.
  90. Luigi Ventimiglia, 2012. "Commodity markets," Chapters, in: Jan Toporowski & Jo Michell (ed.), Handbook of Critical Issues in Finance, chapter 8, pages i-ii, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  91. Mohsin S. Khan, 2010. "The GCC Monetary Union: Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  92. Daniel Cohen & Hélène Djoufelkit-Cottenet & Pierre Jacquet & Cécile Valadier, 2008. "Lending to the Poorest Countries: A New Counter-Cyclical Debt Instrument," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 269, OECD Publishing.
  93. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "Commodity volatility breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-422.
  94. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2019. "Do international primary commodity prices exhibit asymmetric adjustment?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 40-50.
  95. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Long-term Patterns in Australia’s Terms of Trade," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  96. Gheorghe Săvoiu & Vasile Dinu & Laurenţiu Tăchiciu, 2012. "Romania Foreign Trade in Global Recession, Revealed by the Extended Method of Exchange Rate Indicators," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(31), pages 173-194, February.
  97. Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2011. "The Conditions for Long-Term Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: China as a Model, a Contraint and an Opportunity," Post-Print halshs-03604139, HAL.
  98. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.