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AJAE Appendix: The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives

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  • Balagtas, Joseph Valdes
  • Holt, Matthew T.

Abstract

This appendix contains diagnostic test results and supplemental regression results from an evaluation of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis that applies smooth transition autoregressions (STARs) to relative prices for 24 primary commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Balagtas, Joseph Valdes & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "AJAE Appendix: The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeap:164070
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.164070
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
    2. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    5. Tae‐Hwan Kim & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Tony Rayner & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Testing for Linear Trend with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 539-551, September.
    6. Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Paul Newbold & Anthony Rayner, 2007. "A Short Note on Updating the Grilli and Yang Commodity Price Index," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(1), pages 151-163.
    7. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    8. Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Winkelried, Diego, 2018. "Unit roots, flexible trends, and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    3. Ubilava, David & holt, Matt, 2013. "El Ni~no southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(2), pages 1-25.
    4. David Colman, 2010. "Agriculture's terms of trade: issues and implications," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Kim, Jintae, 2018. "London calling: Nonlinear mean reversion across national stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 265-277.
    6. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
    7. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    8. Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2018. "Do International Relative Commodity Prices Support the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis? A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Testing," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-92, December.
    9. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    11. MacDonald, Stephen & Meyer, Leslie, 2018. "Long Run Trends and Fluctuations In Cotton Prices," MPRA Paper 84484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Feb 2018.
    12. Ubilava, David, 2017. "The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 490-502.
    13. John Baffes & Xiaoli L. Etienne, 2016. "Analysing food price trends in the context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 688-713.
    14. Atanu Ghoshray & Ashira Perera, 2016. "An Empirical Study of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 551-571, July.
    15. Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada & Wilhelm Loewenstein & Yadulla Hasanli, 2019. "Commodity Revenues, Agricultural Sector and the Magnitude of Deindustrialization: A Novel Multisector Perspective," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, November.
    16. David Ubilava, 2018. "The Role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(1), pages 239-263.
    17. Oglend, Atle & Selland Kleppe, Tore, 2016. "How regular are directional movements in commodity and asset prices? A Wald test," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 290-306.
    18. A Ghoshray & Ashira Perera, 2011. "The Model of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis Revisited," Department of Economics Working Papers 08/11, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    19. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Scholarly Articles 8694932, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    20. Byrne, Joseph P & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2010. "Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-102, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

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