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Pass-through of International Food Prices to Domestic Inflation During and After the Great Recession: Evidence from a Set of Latin American Economies

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  • Munir Jalil

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  • Esteban Tamayo

    ()

Abstract

We looked at how international food price shocks have impacted local inflation processes in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru in the past decade. Using impulse-response analysis coming from cointegrated vars, we find that international food inflation shocks take from one to six quarters to pass through to domestic headline inflation, depending on the country. In addition, by calculating the elasticity of local prices to an international food price shock, we found that this pass-through is not complete. We also take a closer look at how this type of shock affects local food and core prices separately, and asses the possibility second round effects over core inflation stemming from the shock. We find that a transmission to headline prices does occur, and that part of the transmission is associated with rising core prices both directly and through possible second round effects, which implies a role for monetary policy when such a shock takes place. This is especially relevant given that international food prices have recently followed an upward trend after falling considerably during the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Munir Jalil & Esteban Tamayo, 2011. "Pass-through of International Food Prices to Domestic Inflation During and After the Great Recession: Evidence from a Set of Latin American Economies," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:008922
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Pedersen, 2011. "Propagation of Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: an International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 648, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Athanassios Petralias & Pródromos Prodromídis, 2015. "Price discovery under crisis: uncovering the determinant factors of prices using efficient Bayesian model selection methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 859-879, November.
    3. Carlos Gustavo Cano Sanz & César Vallejo Mejía & Edgar Caicedo García & Juan Sebastian Amador Torres & Evelyn Yohana Tique Calderón, 2012. "El mercado mundial del café y su impacto en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 710, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas & Ximena Chavarro & Eliana González, 2015. "Commodity Price Shocks and Inflation within an Optimal Monetary Policy Framwork: the case of Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 203-249, July-Dece.
    5. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 3. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3).
    6. repec:chb:bcchec:v:19:y:2016:i:3:p:004-025 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Michael Pedersen, 2015. "Propagation of Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: A Cross-Country Analysis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(4), pages 272-289, August.
    8. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ximena Chavarro & Eliana Rocío González, 2012. "Precios de bienes primarios e inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 712, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food inflation; fao food price index; Latin American inflation; second round effects.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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