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Characterizing food prices in India

  • Andaleeb Rahman


    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research
    Institute of Economic Growth)

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    This paper seeks to improve our understanding of the behaviour of wholesale price index (WPI) of 24 selected food products in India over a long period of time. The hypothesis of declining trend in prices is not found for all commodities although we do find that price of food grains exhibit a negative trend as a result of positive productivity shock. Two main finding of this paper in the context of cyclical behaviour of prices are: asymmetry in the duration spent in boom and slump and the fact that the price cycle does not have a consistent shape. This has implications for formulating counter cyclical policies.

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    Paper provided by Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India in its series Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers with number 2012-022.

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    Length: 30 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2012-022
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    1. Walter Enders & Matthew T. Holt, 2012. "Sharp Breaks or Smooth Shifts? an Investigation of the Evolution of Primary Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(3), pages 659-673.
    2. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
    3. Deaton, A., 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Aftica," Papers 186, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    4. Leon, Javier & Soto, Raimundo, 1995. "Structural breaks and long-run trends in commodity prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1406, The World Bank.
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    6. Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.
    7. Jayne, Thomas S. & Mukumbu, Mulinge & Duncan, John & Staatz, John M. & Howard, Julie A. & Lundberg, Mattias K.A. & Aldridge, Kim & Nakaponda, Bethel & Ferris, John N. & Keita, Francis & Sanankoua, Abd, 1996. "Trends in Real Food Prices in Six Sub-Saharan African Countries," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54695, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    8. Hyun Joung Jin & Dragan Miljkovic, 2010. "An analysis of multiple structural breaks in US relative farm prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(25), pages 3253-3265.
    9. Goodwin, Barry K. & Holt, Matthew T. & Prestemon, Jeffery P., 2008. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," MPRA Paper 9684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Subir Gokarn, 2011. "The price of protein," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 327-335, July.
    12. Miljkovic, Dragan & Jin, Hyun Joung & Paul, Rodney, 2007. "The Role of Productivity Growth and Farmers' Income Protection Policies in the Decline of Relative Farm Prices in the United States," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 9368, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    13. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
    14. Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June.
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