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Citations for "Selection of estimation window in the presence of breaks"

by Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan

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  1. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2016. "Structural breaks and monetary dynamics: A time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 133-143.
  2. Smith, Ron, 2009. "EMU and the Lucas Critique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-750, July.
  3. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
  4. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2012. "Prévoir sans persistance," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(3), pages 581-590.
  5. Jungmittag, Andre, 2014. "Combination of forecasts across estimation windows: An application to air travel demand," Working Paper Series: Business and Law 05, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Business and Law.
  6. Anja Rossen, 2016. "On the Predictive Content of Nonlinear Transformations of Lagged Autoregression Residuals and Time Series Observations," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 236(3), pages 389-409, April.
  7. Wei, Xiaoqiao & Yang, Yuhong, 2012. "Robust forecast combinations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 224-236.
  8. Dandan Liu & Rui Li & Zijun Wang, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in panel varying coefficient models: with an application to OECD health expenditure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 95-118, February.
  9. Monticini, Andrea & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 304-315.
  10. Giraitis, Liudas & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2014. "Adaptive forecasting in the presence of recent and ongoing structural change," Bank of England working papers 490, Bank of England.
  11. M Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick & Mikhail Pranovich, 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks," DNB Working Papers 327, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  12. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2014. "Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 186-195.
  13. Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2014. "Forecasting financial and macroeconomic variables using data reduction methods: New empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 352-367.
  14. Boonsoo Koo & Myung Hwan Seo, 2013. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: implications for forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  15. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2009. "How Useful are Historical Data for Forecasting the Long-Run Equity Return Distribution?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 95-112.
  16. Ke Yang & Langnan Chen, 2014. "Realized Volatility Forecast: Structural Breaks, Long Memory, Asymmetry, and Day-of-the-Week Effect," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 345-392, 09.
  17. Bates, Brandon J. & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 289-304.
  18. Agnieszka Markiewicz & Andreas Pick, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," DNB Working Papers 411, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  19. Eklund, J. & Kapetanios, G. & Price, S., 2011. "Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change," Working Papers 11/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
  20. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators instable?," Kiel Working Papers 1987, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  21. Do, Linh Phuong Catherine & Lin, Kuan-Heng & Molnár, Peter, 2016. "Electricity consumption modelling: A case of Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 92-101.
  22. M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2009. "Forecasting Random Walks under Drift Instability," DNB Working Papers 207, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  23. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
  24. Hoornweg, V., 2013. "Some Tools for Robustifying Econometric Analyses," Econometric Institute Research Papers 50163, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  25. Baltagi, Badi H., 2013. "Panel Data Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  26. José M. Campa & Ángel Gavilán, 2006. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Working Papers 0638, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  27. Terence Mills & Kerry Patterson, 2013. "Modelling the Trend: The Historical Origins of Some Modern Methods and Ideas," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2013-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  28. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
  29. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Pranovich, M., 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks (Updated 14 November 2011)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1163, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  30. Timmermann, Allan, 2008. "Elusive return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-18.
  31. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Working Papers 819, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  32. Richard A. Ashley & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "Credible Granger-Causality Inference with Modest Sample Lengths: A Cross-Sample Validation Approach," Working Papers e07-41, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  33. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Assessing Forecast Uncertainties in a VECX Model for Switzerland: An Exercise in Forecast Combination across Models and Observation Windows," CESifo Working Paper Series 2116, CESifo Group Munich.
  34. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  35. John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  36. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
  37. Atak, Alev & Kapetanios, George, 2013. "A factor approach to realized volatility forecasting in the presence of finite jumps and cross-sectional correlation in pricing errors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 224-228.
  38. Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.
  39. Nicolau, Mihaela & Palomba, Giulio, 2015. "Dynamic relationships between spot and futures prices. The case of energy and gold commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 130-143.
  40. Hansen, Bruce E., 2010. "Averaging estimators for autoregressions with a near unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 142-155, September.
  41. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1409, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  42. repec:wyi:journl:002213 is not listed on IDEAS
  43. Theodosiou, Marina, 2011. "Forecasting monthly and quarterly time series using STL decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1178-1195, October.
  44. Mihaela NICOLAU & Giulio PALOMBA & Ilaria TRAINI, 2013. "Are Futures Prices Influenced by Spot;Prices or Vice-versa? An Analysis of Crude;Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets," Working Papers 394, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  45. Charlotte Christiansen & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "A Comprehensive Look at Financial Volatility Prediction by Economic Variables," BIS Working Papers 374, Bank for International Settlements.
  46. Dorsey, Robert E. & Hu, Haixin & Mayer, Walter J. & Wang, Hui-chen, 2010. "Hedonic versus repeat-sales housing price indexes for measuring the recent boom-bust cycle," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 75-93, June.
  47. Tim Bollerslev & Andrew J. Patton & Wenjing Wang, 2015. "Daily House Price Indices: Construction, Modeling, and Longer-Run Predictions," CREATES Research Papers 2015-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  48. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  49. Cem Cakmakli & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-115/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  50. Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Smit, L.V., 2008. "Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0807, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  51. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  52. Wang, Cindy Shin-Huei & Bauwens, Luc & Hsiao, Cheng, 2013. "Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 171-184.
  53. Benavides, Guillermo & Capistrán, Carlos, 2012. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility: The superior performance of conditional combinations of time series and option implied forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 627-639.
  54. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2008. "Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: A suggestion with an application to Austrian data," Working Papers 144, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  55. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2009. "A real time evaluation of Bank of England forecasts of inflation and growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 74-80.
  56. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Liang, Tulu & Wang, Chen, 2016. "A combined model based on multiple seasonal patterns and modified firefly algorithm for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 135-153.
  57. Chrystalleni Aristidou & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US," Discussion Papers 2015/13, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  58. Leonardo Morales-Arias & Alexander Dross, 2010. "Adaptive Forecasting of Exchange Rates with Panel Data," Research Paper Series 285, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  59. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015. "Selection of an estimation window in the presence of data revisions and recent structural breaks," MPRA Paper 66759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  61. repec:ctc:serie1:def10 is not listed on IDEAS
  62. Aue, Alexander & Horváth, Lajos & Reimherr, Matthew L., 2009. "Delay times of sequential procedures for multiple time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 174-190, April.
  63. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
  64. Jing Tian & Heather M. Anderson, 2011. "Forecasting Under Strucural Break Uncertainty," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  65. Wang, Zijun, 2009. "Stock returns and the short-run predictability of health expenditure: Some empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 587-601, July.
  66. repec:rdg:wpaper:em-dp2013-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  67. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  68. Ke Yang & Langnan Chen & Fengping Tian, 2015. "Realized Volatility Forecast of Stock Index Under Structural Breaks," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 57-82, 01.
  69. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00662771 is not listed on IDEAS
  70. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo Group Munich.
  71. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
  72. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schüssler, 2014. "Forecasting Exchange Rates under Model and Parameter Uncertainty," CQE Working Papers 3214, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  73. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," Economics Series 2011_1, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  74. Joshua Gallin & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Improving the CPI’s Age-Bias Adjustment: Leverage, Disaggregation and Model Averaging," Working Papers 411, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  75. Juraj Hucek & Alexander Karsay & Marian Vavra, 2015. "Short-term Forecasting of Real GDP Using Monthly Data," Working and Discussion Papers OP 1/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  76. Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," Working Papers 2010-04, Banco de México.
  77. Heather M Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "VARs, Cointegration and Common Cycle Restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  78. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
  79. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
  80. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
  81. Vasyl Golosnoy, 2007. "Sequential monitoring of minimum variance portfolio," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 91(1), pages 39-55, March.
  82. Erhard Reschenhofer, 2010. "Forecasting volatility: double averaging and weighted medians," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3/4), pages 317-326.
  83. Biqing Cai & Jiti Gao, 2013. "Hermite Series Estimation in Nonlinear Cointegrating Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  84. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:144:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  85. repec:cty:dpaper:12/02 is not listed on IDEAS
  86. Beckmann, Joscha & Schüssler, Rainer, 2016. "Forecasting exchange rates under parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 267-288.
  87. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  88. WANG, Shin-Huei & BAUWENS, Luc & HSIAO, Cheng, 2012. "Forecasting long memory processes subject to structural breaks," CORE Discussion Papers 2012048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  89. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
  90. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  91. Fantazziini, Dean, 2014. "Nowcasting and Forecasting the Monthly Food Stamps Data in the US using Online Search Data," MPRA Paper 59696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  92. Tian, Jing & Anderson, Heather M., 2014. "Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 161-175.
  93. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  94. Rodrigues, Bruno Dore & Stevenson, Maxwell J., 2013. "Takeover prediction using forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 628-641.
  95. Xiu Xu & Andrija Mihoci & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, . "lCARE – localizing Conditional AutoRegressive Expectiles," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-052, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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