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Citations for "Selection of estimation window in the presence of breaks"

by Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan

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  1. Erhard Reschenhofer, 2010. "Forecasting volatility: double averaging and weighted medians," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3/4), pages 317-326.
  2. Bates, Brandon J. & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 289-304.
  3. Agnieszka Markiewicz & Andreas Pick, 2013. "Adaptive Learning and Survey Data," CDMA Working Paper Series 201305, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  4. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2010. "Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: a suggestion with an application to Austrian data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 309-344.
  5. Wei, Xiaoqiao & Yang, Yuhong, 2012. "Robust forecast combinations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 224-236.
  6. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2012. "Prévoir sans persistance," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12001, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  7. Campa, Jose M. & Gavilán, Angel, 2006. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," IESE Research Papers D/651, IESE Business School.
  8. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2014. "Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 186-195.
  9. Charlotte Christiansen & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "A comprehensive look at financial volatility prediction by economic variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 956-977, 09.
  10. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & L. Vanessa Smith, 2008. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," Staff Reports 317, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Rossen, Anja, 2011. "On the predictive content of nonlinear transformations of lagged autoregression residuals and time series observations," HWWI Research Papers 113, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  13. Eklund, J. & Kapetanios, G. & Price, S., 2011. "Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change," Working Papers 11/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
  14. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  15. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Assessing Forecast Uncertainties in a VECX Model for Switzerland: An Exercise in Forecast Combination across Models and Observation Windows," CESifo Working Paper Series 2116, CESifo Group Munich.
  16. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers 2011-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  17. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Papers tecipa-293, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  18. Guillermo Benavides & Carlos Capistrán, 2009. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility: The Superior Performance of Conditional Combinations of Time Series and Option Implied Forecasts," Working Papers 2009-01, Banco de México.
  19. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00662771 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Wang, Cindy Shin-Huei & Bauwens, Luc & Hsiao, Cheng, 2013. "Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 171-184.
  21. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
  22. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  23. Fantazziini, Dean, 2014. "Nowcasting and Forecasting the Monthly Food Stamps Data in the US using Online Search Data," MPRA Paper 59696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Boonsoo Koo & Myung Hwan Seo, 2013. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: implications for forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  25. Terence Mills & Kerry Patterson, 2013. "Modelling the Trend: The Historical Origins of Some Modern Methods and Ideas," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2013-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  26. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset," CSEF Working Papers 274, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  27. repec:ctc:serie1:def10 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
  29. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2012. "Adaptive Forecasting in the Presence of Recent and Ongoing Structural Change," Working Papers 691, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  30. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Economics Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  31. Fabian Baetje & Lukas Menkhoff, 2015. "Equity Premium Prediction: Are Economic and Technical Indicators Instable?," Kiel Working Papers 1987, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  32. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
  33. Wang, Zijun, 2009. "Stock returns and the short-run predictability of health expenditure: Some empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 587-601, July.
  34. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  35. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
  36. Timmermann, Allan G, 2005. "Forecast Combinations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  37. Andrea Monticini & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def010, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  38. Jungmittag, Andre, 2014. "Combination of forecasts across estimation windows: An application to air travel demand," Working Paper Series: Business and Law 05, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Business and Law.
  39. Biqing Cai & Jiti Gao, 2013. "Hermite Series Estimation in Nonlinear Cointegrating Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  40. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn't in reduced-form and structural models," Economics Working Papers 1476, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  41. Heather M Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "VARs, Cointegration and Common Cycle Restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  42. Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2014. "Forecasting financial and macroeconomic variables using data reduction methods: New empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 352-367.
  43. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
  44. M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2008. "Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability," CESifo Working Paper Series 2293, CESifo Group Munich.
  45. Hoornweg, V., 2013. "Some Tools for Robustifying Econometric Analyses," Econometric Institute Research Papers 50163, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  46. Richard A. Ashley & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2014. "Credible Granger-Causality Inference with Modest Sample Lengths: A Cross-Sample Validation Approach," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 72-91, March.
  47. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2009. "A real time evaluation of Bank of England forecasts of inflation and growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 74-80.
  48. Mihaela NICOLAU & Giulio PALOMBA & Ilaria TRAINI, 2013. "Are Futures Prices Influenced by Spot;Prices or Vice-versa? An Analysis of Crude;Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets," Working Papers 394, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  49. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Pranovich, M., 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks (Updated 14 November 2011)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1163, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  50. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schüssler, 2014. "Forecasting Exchange Rates under Model and Parameter Uncertainty," CQE Working Papers 3214, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  51. Leonardo Morales-Arias & Alexander Dross, 2010. "Adaptive Forecasting of Exchange Rates with Panel Data," Research Paper Series 285, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  52. Dandan Liu & Rui Li & Zijun Wang, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in panel varying coefficient models: with an application to OECD health expenditure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 95-118, February.
  53. Hansen, Bruce E., 2010. "Averaging estimators for autoregressions with a near unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 142-155, September.
  54. John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  55. repec:wyi:journl:002213 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:144:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  57. Jing Tian & Heather M. Anderson, 2011. "Forecasting Under Strucural Break Uncertainty," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  58. Cem Cakmakli & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-115/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  59. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2012. "Prévoir sans persistance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00662771, HAL.
  60. Timmermann, Allan, 2008. "Elusive return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-18.
  61. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
  62. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
  63. Smith, Ron, 2009. "EMU and the Lucas Critique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-750, July.
  64. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  65. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  66. Theodosiou, Marina, 2011. "Forecasting monthly and quarterly time series using STL decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1178-1195, October.
  67. Joshua Gallin & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Improving the CPI’s Age-Bias Adjustment: Leverage, Disaggregation and Model Averaging," Working Papers 411, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  68. repec:cty:dpaper:12/02 is not listed on IDEAS
  69. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  70. Aue, Alexander & Horváth, Lajos & Reimherr, Matthew L., 2009. "Delay times of sequential procedures for multiple time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 174-190, April.
  71. WANG, Shin-Huei & BAUWENS, Luc & HSIAO, Cheng, 2012. "Forecasting long memory processes subject to structural breaks," CORE Discussion Papers 2012048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  72. Atak, Alev & Kapetanios, George, 2013. "A factor approach to realized volatility forecasting in the presence of finite jumps and cross-sectional correlation in pricing errors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 224-228.
  73. Rodrigues, Bruno Dore & Stevenson, Maxwell J., 2013. "Takeover prediction using forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 628-641.
  74. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
  75. Vasyl Golosnoy, 2007. "Sequential monitoring of minimum variance portfolio," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 91(1), pages 39-55, March.
  76. Tian, Jing & Anderson, Heather M., 2014. "Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 161-175.
  77. Tim Bollerslev & Andrew J. Patton & Wenjing Wang, 2015. "Daily House Price Indices: Construction, Modeling, and Longer-Run Predictions," CREATES Research Papers 2015-02, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  78. repec:rdg:wpaper:em-dp2013-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Dorsey, Robert E. & Hu, Haixin & Mayer, Walter J. & Wang, Hui-chen, 2010. "Hedonic versus repeat-sales housing price indexes for measuring the recent boom-bust cycle," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 75-93, June.
  80. Cem Cakmakli & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-115/4, Tinbergen Institute.
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