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Some Tools for Robustifying Econometric Analyses

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  • Hoornweg, V.

Abstract

__Abstract__ We use automated algorithms to update and evaluate ad hoc judgments that are made in applied econometrics. Such an application of automated algorithms robustifies empirical econometric analyses, it achieves lower and more consistent prediction errors, and it helps to prevent data snooping. Tools are introduced to evaluate the algorithm, to see how configurations are updated by the algorithm, to study how forecasting accuracy is affected by the choice of configurations, and to find out which configurations can safely be ignored in order to increase the speed of the algorithm. In our case study we develop an algorithm that updates ad hoc judgments that are made in Cápistran and Timmermann's (2009) attempt to beat the mean survey forecast. Many of these ad hoc judgments are often made in time series forecasting and have hitherto been overlooked. We show that our algorithm improves their models and at the same time we further robustify the stylized fact that the mean survey forecast is difficult to beat. JEL classificatie is trouwens C52, mocht je dat nodig hebben.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoornweg, V., 2013. "Some Tools for Robustifying Econometric Analyses," Econometric Institute Research Papers 50163, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:50163
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    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/50163/HoornwegFranses2013Robust-1-.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heij, Christiaan & de Boer, Paul & Franses, Philip Hans & Kloek, Teun & van Dijk, Herman K., 2004. "Econometric Methods with Applications in Business and Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199268016, Decembrie.
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    3. Capistrán, Carlos & Timmermann, Allan, 2009. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 428-440.
    4. Wolden Bache, Ida & Sofie Jore, Anne & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2011. "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1659-1670, October.
    5. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Selection of estimation window in the presence of breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 134-161, March.
    7. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    robust; ad hoc; automated; algorithm; update; combine; forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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