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Citations for "Prediction Markets"

by Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz

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  1. Ray C. Fair, 2004. "Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1496, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Paper Series 42_07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. Boyle, Glenn & Videbeck, Steen, 2005. "A Primer on Information Markets," Working Paper Series 3853, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
  4. Card, David & Dahl, Gordon B., 2010. "Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 4869, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Vorsatz, Marc & Veiga, Helena, 2008. "Aggregation and dissemination of information in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws084110, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  6. Keller, Jonas & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "The influence of information and communication technology (ICT) on future foresight processes — Results from a Delphi survey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 81-92.
  7. repec:rim:rimwps:42-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2011. "The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns," Working Paper Series rwp11-028, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  9. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5562, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Goodell, John W. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-171.
  11. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Slacik, Tomás, 2007. "An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  12. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2013. "Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/08, Department of Economics and Management.
  13. Kathy Yuan & Emre Ozdenoren & Itay Goldstein, 2008. "Learning and Complementarities: Implications for Speculative Attacks," 2008 Meeting Papers 276, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. T. Nicolaus Tideman & Florenz Plassmann, 2007. "A Pricing Mechanism for CO2 Emissions that Incorporates Future Revisions of Estimates of the Cost of Today?s Emissions," Working Papers e07-9, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  15. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2012. "Impacts of Political Majorities on French Firms: Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections?," PSE Working Papers halshs-00671405, HAL.
  16. Kelly, David L. & Letson, David & Nelson, Forrest & Nolan, David S. & Solís, Daniel, 2012. "Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 644-663.
  17. Abraham Othman & Tuomas Sandholm, 2013. "The Gates Hillman prediction market," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 17(2), pages 95-128, June.
  18. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  19. Veiga Helena & Vorsatz Marc, 2006. "Price Manipulation in an Experimental Asset Market," Research Memorandum 024, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  20. Michael Greenstone, 2007. "Is the "Surge" Working? Some New Facts," NBER Working Papers 13458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.
  22. Cary Deck & Li Hao & David Porter, 2013. "Do Prediction Markets Aid Defenders in a Weak-Link Contest?," Working Papers 13-27, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  23. Refet Gurkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk," NBER Working Papers 11929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Petia Topalova & Shawn Cole & Xavier Gene & Jeremy Tobacman & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2011. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India," Working Papers id:4293, eSocialSciences.
  25. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," NBER Working Papers 12200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Ledyard, John & Hanson, Robin & Ishikida, Takashi, 2009. "An experimental test of combinatorial information markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 182-189, February.
  27. Hans Gersbach & Markus Müller, 2006. "Elections, Contracts and Markets," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 06/56, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  28. Urmee Khan & Robert Lieli, 2016. "Information Flow Between Prediction Markets, Polls and Media: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Primaries," Working Papers 201610, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  29. Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  30. M. Keith Chen & Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr. & Edward H. Kaplan, 2008. "Modeling a Presidential Prediction Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(8), pages 1381-1394, August.
  31. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 837-849.
  32. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," CAMA Working Papers 2012-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  34. Camerer, Colin & Dreber, Anna & Forsell, Eskil & Ho, Teck-Hua & Huber, Jurgen & Johannesson, Magnus & Kirchler, Michael & Almenberg, Johan & Altmejd, Adam & Chan, Taizan & Heikensten, Emma & Holzmeist, 2016. "Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in Economics," MPRA Paper 75461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Exchange vs Dealers: A High-Frequency Analysis of In-Play Betting Prices," Discussion Papers 11-19, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  37. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2007. "Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities," NBER Working Papers 13535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2015. "Political risk, investor attention and the Scottish Independence referendum," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 163-171.
  39. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "Particularitǎţi ale evoluţiei variabilelor financiare
    [Some particularities of the financial variables evolution]
    ," MPRA Paper 73481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Sep 2016.
  40. Coleman, S., 2010. "Russian Election Reform and the Effect of Social Conformity on Voting and the Party System: 2007 and 2008," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 5, pages 73-90.
  41. Joyce E. Berg & John Geweke & Thomas A. Rietz, 2010. "Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction markets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 163-186, 07.
  42. Brian Knight & Nathan Schiff, 2007. "Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries," NBER Working Papers 13637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008. "Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange," Working Papers 0025, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA), revised 2009.
  44. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 1-578, May.
  45. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 183-195, January.
  46. Gersbach, Hans & Ponta, Oriana, 2013. "Unraveling Short- and Farsightedness in Politics," CEPR Discussion Papers 9314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  47. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
  48. Lambert, Nicolas S. & Langford, John & Wortman Vaughan, Jennifer & Chen, Yiling & Reeves, Daniel M. & Shoham, Yoav & Pennock, David M., 2015. "An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 389-416.
  49. Iyer, Rajkamal & Khwaja, Asim Ijaz & Luttmer, Erzo F. P. & Shue, Kelly, 2013. "Screening Peers Softly: Inferring the Quality of Small Borrowers," Working Paper Series rwp13-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  50. Urmee Khan & Robert Lieli, 2010. "Information Processing in Prediction Markets: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 201426, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  51. Alasdair Brown, 2013. "Information Acquisition in Ostensibly Efficient Markets," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 043, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  52. Gibson, Rajna & Habib, Michel A. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2014. "Reinsurance or securitization: The case of natural catastrophe risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 79-100.
  53. Fahr, René & Irlenbusch, Bernd, 2011. "Who follows the crowd—Groups or individuals?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 200-209.
  54. Bruno Frey, 2008. "Outside and inside competition for international organizations—from analysis to innovations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 335-350, December.
  55. Richard Potthoff, 2013. "Simple manipulation-resistant voting systems designed to elect Condorcet candidates and suitable for large-scale public elections," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 40(1), pages 101-122, January.
  56. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2011. "How Prediction Markets can Save Event Studies," CAMA Working Papers 2011-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  57. Amos Storkey, 2011. "Machine Learning Markets," Papers 1106.4509, arXiv.org.
  58. Albert N. Link & John T. Scott, 2009. "Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government-sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 264-281, 04.
  59. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2014. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 62-91, 03.
  60. Oechssler, Jörg & Schmidt, Carsten & Schnedler, Wendelin, 2009. "Asset Bubbles without Dividends - An Experiment," Working Papers 0439, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  61. Sumner, Scott, 2015. "Nominal GDP futures targeting," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 65-75.
  62. Grant, Andrew & Johnstone, David, 2010. "Finding profitable forecast combinations using probability scoring rules," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 498-510, July.
  63. Alvin E. Roth, 2007. "Repugnance as a Constraint on Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 37-58, Summer.
  64. Aseem Brahma & Sanmay Das & Malik Magdon-Ismail, 2010. "Comparing Prediction Market Structures, With an Application to Market Making," Papers 1009.1446, arXiv.org.
  65. Wang, Wei & Rothschild, David & Goel, Sharad & Gelman, Andrew, 2015. "Forecasting elections with non-representative polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 980-991.
  66. Betzer, André & Doumet, Markus & Rinne, Ulf, 2011. "How Policy Changes Affect Shareholder Wealth: The Case of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster," IZA Discussion Papers 5896, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  67. Selb, Peter & Herrmann, Michael & Munzert, Simon & Schübel, Thomas & Shikano, Susumu, 2013. "Forecasting runoff elections using candidate evaluations from first round exit polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 541-547.
  68. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2015. "Price Reaction to Information with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Wealth Effects: Underreaction, Momentum, and Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 1-34, January.
  69. Cary Deck & Shengle Lin & David Porter, 2010. "Affecting Policy by Manipulating Prediction Markets: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 10-15, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  70. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
  71. Eymann, Torsten (Ed.), 2011. "Tagungsband zum Doctoral Consortium der WI 2011
    [Proceedings of the Doctoral Consortium of the Wirtschaftsinformatik 2011]
    ," Bayreuth Reports on Information Systems Management 51, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Information Systems Management.
  72. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Inefficiencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2016-01, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  73. Boulu-Reshef, Béatrice & Comeig, Irene & Donze, Robert & Weiss, Gregory D., 2016. "Risk aversion in prediction markets: A framed-field experiment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 5071-5075.
  74. David S. Lee & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Bayesian Learning and the Pricing of New Information: Evidence from Prediction Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 330-336, May.
  75. Urs W. Birchler & Matteo Facchinetti, 2006. "Can bank supervisors rely on market data? A critical assessment from a Swiss perspective," Working Papers 2006-08, Swiss National Bank.
  76. Marcin Kozak & Olesia Iefremova, 2014. "Implementation Of The Delphi Technique In Finance," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(4), pages 36-45, May.
  77. Phillip E. Pfeifer, 2016. "The promise of pick-the-winners contests for producing crowd probability forecasts," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 81(2), pages 255-278, August.
  78. Lennart Sjöberg, 2009. "Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1-18.
  79. Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R. & Schrodt, Philip A., 2014. "Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 944-962.
  80. Sebastian Goers & Alexander Wagner & Jürgen Wegmayr, 2010. "New and old market-based instruments for climate change policy," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, June.
  81. Newhard, Joseph Michael, 2014. "The stock market speaks: How Dr. Alchian learned to build the bomb," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 116-132.
  82. Goodwin, Paul & Meeran, Sheik & Dyussekeneva, Karima, 2014. "The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1082-1097.
  83. Victor Tiberius & Christoph Rasche, 2011. "Prognosemärkte," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 467-472, April.
  84. Kurt Nielsen & Jesper Troelsgaard Nielsen, 2010. "An Allocatively Efficient Auction Market for Payment Entitlements?," MSAP Working Paper Series 03_2010, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
  85. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Ine!ciencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Working Papers 2016-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  86. Meirowitz, Adam, 2005. "Deliberative Democracy or Market Democracy: Designing Institutions to Aggregate Preferences and Information," Papers 03-28-2005, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
  87. Tideman, T. Nicolaus & Plassmann, Florenz, 2010. "Pricing externalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 176-184, June.
  88. Sjöberg, Lennart, 2006. "Are all crowds equally wise? A comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2006:9, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 04 Oct 2006.
  89. Marek Bundzel & Tomas Kasanicky & Richard Pincak, 2016. "Using String Invariants for Prediction Searching for Optimal Parameters," Papers 1606.06003, arXiv.org.
  90. Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2010. "Elections and Political Risk: New Evidence from Political Prediction Markets in Taiwan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2010-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  91. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  92. Douglas D. Davis & Korenok Oleg & Edward S. Prescott, 2011. "An Experimental Analysis of Contingent Capital with Market-Price Triggers," Working Papers 1102, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2013.
  93. Buckley, Patrick, 2016. "Harnessing the wisdom of crowds: Decision spaces for prediction markets," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 85-94.
  94. Gustavo Crespi & Chiara Criscuolo & Jonathan Haskel & Matthew Slaughter, 2007. "Productivity Growth, Knowledge Flows and Spillovers," CEP Discussion Papers dp0785, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  95. McKenzie, Jordi, 2013. "Predicting box office with and without markets: Do internet users know anything?," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 70-80.
  96. Robert Reig & Ramona Schoder, 2010. "Forecasting Accuracy: Comparing Prediction Markets And Surveys – An Experimental Study," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-19.
  97. Shipra Agrawal & Erick Delage & Mark Peters & Zizhuo Wang & Yinyu Ye, 2009. "A Unified Framework for Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Information Market Design," Papers 0902.2429, arXiv.org.
  98. Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
  99. Tongkui Yu & Shu-Heng Chen, 2011. "Agent-Based Modeling of the Prediction Markets," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1119, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
  100. Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 425-429, June.
  101. Jean-François Laslier & Karine Van Der Straeten, 2008. "A live experiment on approval voting," Post-Print hal-00363212, HAL.
  102. Bossan, Benjamin & Jann, Ole & Hammerstein, Peter, 2015. "The evolution of social learning and its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 266-288.
  103. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
  104. Coleman, Stephen, 2014. "Evolution of the Russian Political Party System under the Influence of Social Conformity: 1993-2011," MPRA Paper 59038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  105. Robert W. Hahn & Paul C. Tetlock, 2008. "Has Economic Analysis Improved Regulatory Decisions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 67-84, Winter.
  106. Quoc-Anh Do & Bang Dang Nguyen & Yen-Teik Lee & Kieu-Trang Nguyen, 2011. "Out of Sight, Out of Mind:The Value of Political Connections in Social Networks," Working Papers 19-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  107. Ivo Blohm & Christoph Riedl & Johann F\"uller & Orhan K\"oroglu & Jan Marco Leimeister & Helmut Krcmar, 2012. "The Effects of Prediction Market Design and Price Elasticity on Trading Performance of Users: An Experimental Analysis," Papers 1204.3457, arXiv.org.
  108. Petr Jakubík & Tomáš Slacík, 2013. "Measuring Financial (In)Stability in Emerging Europe: A New Index-Based Approach," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 25, pages 102-117.
  109. van Bruggen, G.H. & Spann, M. & Lilien, G.L. & Skiera, B., 2006. "Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-028-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  110. Bundzel, Marek & Kasanický, Tomáš & Pinčák, Richard, 2016. "Using string invariants for prediction searching for optimal parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 680-688.
  111. Jinli Hu, 2012. "Combinatorial Modelling and Learning with Prediction Markets," Papers 1201.3851, arXiv.org.
  112. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.
  113. Jean-François Laslier & Karine Straeten, 2008. "A live experiment on approval voting," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 11(1), pages 97-105, March.
  114. Hans Gersbach & Markus Müller, 2011. "Information Markets, Elections and Contracts," CESifo Working Paper Series 3327, CESifo Group Munich.
  115. Byung-Yeon Kim & Gerard Roland, 2011. "Are the Markets Afraid of Kim Jong-Il?," KIER Working Papers 789, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  116. Jackson, Aaron L., 2010. "Policy futures markets with multiple goals," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 45-54, March.
  117. Papakonstantinou, A. & Rogers, A & Gerding, E. H. & Jennings, N. R., 2010. "Mechanism Design for the truthful elicitation of costly probabilistic estimates in Distributed Information Systems," MPRA Paper 43324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  118. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Thomakos, Dimitrios D, 2008. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 6701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  119. Serrano-Padial, Ricardo, 2012. "Naive traders and mispricing in prediction markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(5), pages 1882-1912.
  120. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2013. " Liquidity, Market Efficiency and the Influence of Noise Traders: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Betting Industry," Working Papers 341, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  121. Mitchener, Kris James & Oosterlinck, Kim & Weidenmier, Marc D. & Haber, Stephen, 2015. "Victory or repudiation? Predicting winners in civil wars using international financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 310-319.
  122. Chen, Shu-Heng, 2012. "Varieties of agents in agent-based computational economics: A historical and an interdisciplinary perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25.
  123. Fabio Milani, 2010. "Public option and private profits," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 155-165, May.
  124. J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green, 2005. "Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  125. Alan Holland, 2009. "A Prediction Market for Toxic Assets Prices," Papers 0905.4171, arXiv.org.
  126. Michael A. Smith & David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2009. "Do Bookmakers Possess Superior Skills to Bettors in Predicting Outcomes?," Post-Print hal-00684229, HAL.
  127. Joachim R. Groeger, 2016. "The Informational Content of the Limit Order Book: An Empirical Study of Prediction Markets," Papers 1609.03471, arXiv.org.
  128. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2010. "Information aggregation in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 13(4), pages 379-398, December.
  129. Bryan Caplan, 2007. "Clifford Winston, Government Failure versus Market Failure," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 325-328, December.
  130. Douglas Davis & Edward Simpson Prescott & Oleg Korenok, 2011. "An experimental analysis of contingent capital triggering mechanisms," Working Paper 11-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  131. Thomas Ferguson & Paul Jorgensen & Jie Chen, 2016. "How Money Drives US Congressional Elections," Working Papers Series 48, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
  132. Angela Dalton & Alan Brothers & Stephen Walsh & Paul Whitney, 2010. "Expert Elicitation Method Selection Process and Method Comparison," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 030, University of Siena.
  133. Chezum, Brian & Stowe, C. Jill, 2010. "Some Evidence of Information Aggregation in Auction Prices," 2011 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2011, Corpus Christi, Texas 98528, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  134. Herm, Steffen & Callsen-Bracker, Hans-Markus & Kreis, Henning, 2014. "When the crowd evaluates soccer players’ market values: Accuracy and evaluation attributes of an online community," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 484-492.
  135. Kerr, Norbert L. & Tindale, R. Scott, 2011. "Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 14-40.
  136. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00008089 is not listed on IDEAS
  137. Joyce E. Berg & George R. Neumann & Thomas A. Rietz, 2009. "Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 348-361, March.
  138. Bennouri, Moez & Gimpel, Henner & Robert, Jacques, 2011. "Measuring the impact of information aggregation mechanisms: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 302-318, May.
  139. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
  140. Choi, Darwin & Hui, Sam K., 2014. "The role of surprise: Understanding overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events using in-play soccer betting market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 614-629.
  141. Lian Jian & Rahul Sami, 2012. "Aggregation and Manipulation in Prediction Markets: Effects of Trading Mechanism and Information Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 123-140, January.
  142. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  143. Hanson, Robin & Oprea, Ryan & Porter, David, 2006. "Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 449-459, August.
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