Predicting box office with and without markets: Do internet users know anything?
This study investigates and compares predictions of opening weekend box office revenue from an online prediction game, the Derby, and an online prediction market, the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), using a sample of 141 films released in 2007. Overall, both mechanisms provide accurate predictions of box office outcomes but tend to over-predict small-earning films and under-predict large-earning films. This bias is present across a number of sub-samples disaggregated by film-specific variables. The bias is consistently greater in the Derby game, suggesting that the market mechanism is superior to the non-market mechanism. There is also evidence that larger budget films, sequels and films featuring stars are predicted more accurately in both settings, and that individual-level predictions improve as films spend more time at the box office and as players gain experience.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- W. Walls, 2005.
"Modeling Movie Success When ‘Nobody Knows Anything’: Conditional Stable-Distribution Analysis Of Film Returns,"
Journal of Cultural Economics,
Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 177-190, August.
- W David Walls, 2004. "Modeling movie success when "nobody knows anything": Conditional stable distribution analysis of film returns," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 409, Econometric Society.
- Anita Elberse & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 2003. "Demand and Supply Dynamics for Sequentially Released Products in International Markets: The Case of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 329-354.
- W. D. Walls, 2005.
"Modelling heavy tails and skewness in film returns,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(17), pages 1181-1188.
- De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March.
- Charles R. Plott & Jorgen Wit & Winston C. Yang, 2003.
"Parimutuel betting markets as information aggregation devices: experimental results,"
Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 311-351, 09.
- Plott, Charles R. & Wit, J. & Yang, W. C., 1997. "Parimutuel Betting Markets as Information Aggregation Devises: Experimental Results," Working Papers 986, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Jehoshua Eliashberg & Anita Elberse & Mark A.A.M. Leenders, 2006. "The Motion Picture Industry: Critical Issues in Practice, Current Research, and New Research Directions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 638-661, 11-12.
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004.
NBER Working Papers
10504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2003. "Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1310-1326, October.
- Arthur De Vany & W. Walls, 1999. "Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 285-318, November.
- repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
- De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W David, 1996. "Bose-Einstein Dynamics and Adaptive Contracting in the Motion Picture Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1493-1514, November.
- Jordi McKenzie, 2012. "The Economics Of Movies: A Literature Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 42-70, 02.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:iepoli:v:25:y:2013:i:2:p:70-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.