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Bayesian Information Transmission and Stable Distributions: Motion Picture Revenues at the Australian Box Office

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  • JORDI MCKENZIE

Abstract

Recent empirical literature has identified the importance of information transmission in creating box office blockbusters. It has been shown that box office revenue distributions are characterised by extremities of skew and variance that cannot be explained by such things as expensive budgets, star power, critical acclaim or awards. Empirical research of this industry has subsequently turned its attention to models of information transmission and the consequential implications for box office revenues. Using a large new Australian dataset, this paper adds to the literature by exploring the suitability of the α‐stable distribution for various definitions of Australian box office revenues.

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  • Jordi Mckenzie, 2008. "Bayesian Information Transmission and Stable Distributions: Motion Picture Revenues at the Australian Box Office," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(266), pages 338-353, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:84:y:2008:i:266:p:338-353
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2008.00495.x
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    1. Jordi McKenzie, 2009. "Revealed word-of-mouth demand and adaptive supply: survival of motion pictures at the Australian box office," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 33(4), pages 279-299, November.
    2. Schaffner, Florian, 2016. "Information transmission in high dimensional choice problems: The value of online ratings in the restaurant market," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145585, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Wen-jhan Jane & Wei-peng Chen & Yuan-lin Hsu, 2015. "The impact of deregulation on the movie box office after Taiwan’s entry into the WTO: the difference-in-differences estimation," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 289-308, December.
    4. Jordi McKenzie, 2010. "How do theatrical box office revenues affect DVD retail sales? Australian empirical evidence," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(3), pages 159-179, August.
    5. W. D. Walls & Jordi McKenzie, 2020. "Black swan models for the entertainment industry with an application to the movie business," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 3019-3032, December.
    6. JORDI McKENZIE, 2009. "Illegal Music Downloading And Its Impact On Legitimate Sales: Australian Empirical Evidence," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 296-307, December.
    7. Sangjae Lee & Joon Yeon Choeh, 2020. "The impact of online review helpfulness and word of mouth communication on box office performance predictions," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Jordi McKenzie, 2010. "Do 'African American' films perform better or worse at the box office? An empirical analysis of motion picture revenues and profits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(16), pages 1559-1564.
    9. Sangjae Lee & Joon Yeon Choeh, 2020. "Movie Production Efficiency Moderating between Online Word-of-Mouth and Subsequent Box Office Revenue," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-18, August.

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