Demand and Supply Dynamics for Sequentially Released Products in International Markets: The Case of Motion Pictures
We develop an econometric model to study a setting in which a new product is launched first in its domestic market and only at a later stage in foreign markets, and where the product's performance (“demand”) and availability (“supply”) are highly interdependent over time within and across markets. Integrating literature on international diffusion, “success-breeds-success” trends, and the theatrical motion picture industry—the focus of the empirical analysis—we develop a dynamic simultanenous-equations model of the drivers and interrelationship of the behavior of consumers (“audiences”) and retailers (“exhibitors”). Our findings emphasize the importance of considering the endogeneity and simultaneity of audience and exhibitor behavior, and challenge conventional wisdom on the determinants of box office performance (which is predominantly based on modeling frameworks that fail to account for the interdependence of performance and availability). Specifically, we find that variables such as movie attributes and advertising expenditures, which are usually assumed to influence audiences directly, mostly influence revenuesdirectly, namely through their impact on exhibitors' screen allocations. In addition, consistent with the idea that the “buzz” for a movie is perishable, we find that the longer is the time lag between releases, the weaker is the relationship between domestic and foreign market performance—an effect mostly driven by foreign exhibitors' screen allocations.
Volume (Year): 22 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA|
Web page: http://www.informs.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "The Economics of Superstars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 845-58, December.
- Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1988. "Testing for individual effects in autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 297-307, November.
- W. David Walls, 1997. "Increasing returns to information: evidence from the Hong Kong movie market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 287-290.
- Sanjeev Swami & Jehoshua Eliashberg & Charles B. Weinberg, 1999. "SilverScreener: A Modeling Approach to Movie Screens Management," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 352-372.
- Mohanbir S. Sawhney & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 1996. "A Parsimonious Model for Forecasting Gross Box-Office Revenues of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 113-131.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010.
"A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1193, David K. Levine.
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W David, 1996. "Bose-Einstein Dynamics and Adaptive Contracting in the Motion Picture Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1493-1514, November.
- Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981.
"Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects,"
Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-98, November.
- Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
- David J. Reibstein & Paul W. Farris, 1995. "Market Share and Distribution: A Generalization, a Speculation, and Some Implications," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages G190-G202.
- Everette S. Gardner, 1999. "Note: Rule-Based Forecasting vs. Damped-Trend Exponential Smoothing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(8), pages 1169-1176, August.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Schmidt, Peter, 1978. "On the Estimation of Triangular Structural Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1217-21, September.
- Arthur De Vany & W. Walls, 1999. "Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 23(4), pages 285-318, November.
- Jehoshua Eliashberg & Jedid-Jah Jonker & Mohanbir S. Sawhney & Berend Wierenga, 2000. "MOVIEMOD: An Implementable Decision-Support System for Prerelease Market Evaluation of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 226-243, January.
- De Vany, A. & Walls, W.D., 1999. ""Uncertainty in the Movies: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?"," Papers 98-99-10, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Dekimpe, M.G. & Parker, P.M. & Sarvary, M., 1997. ""Globalization": Modeling Technology Adoption Timing Across Countries," INSEAD 97/75, INSEAD, Centre for the Management of Environmental Resources. The European Institute of Business Administration..
- Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-31, March.
- V. Kumar & Trichy V. Krishnan, 2002. "Multinational Diffusion Models: An Alternative Framework," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 318-330, July.
- Ravid, S Abraham, 1999. "Information, Blockbusters, and Stars: A Study of the Film Industry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 463-92, October.
- Gary L. Lilien & Ambar G. Rao & Shlomo Kalish, 1981. "Bayesian Estimation and Control of Detailing Effort in a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 493-506, May.
- Dubin, Jeffrey A & McFadden, Daniel L, 1984. "An Econometric Analysis of Residential Electric Appliance Holdings and Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 345-62, March.
- Wu, De-Min, 1973. "Alternative Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Regressors and Disturbances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 733-50, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:22:y:2003:i:3:p:329-354. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.