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Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
  2. Trapani, Lorenzo & Urga, Giovanni, 2009. "Optimal forecasting with heterogeneous panels: A Monte Carlo study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 567-586, July.
  3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:292-302 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Liu, Jiadong & Papailias, Fotis & Quinn, Barry, 2021. "Direction-of-change forecasting in commodity futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  5. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Forecasting Stock Price Changes: Is it Possible?," Working Papers 2006-22, FEDEA.
  6. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun, 2006. "Predicting stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 387-415, November.
  7. Wolfgang Drobetz & Rebekka Haller & Christian Jasperneite & Tizian Otto, 2019. "Predictability and the cross section of expected returns: evidence from the European stock market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(7), pages 508-533, December.
  8. Hui Guo, 2006. "On the Out-of-Sample Predictability of Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 645-670, March.
  9. Pierdzioch, Christian & Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel, 2008. "Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 256-276.
  10. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
  11. Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
  12. Cakici, Nusret & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Machine learning and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  13. Capistrán, Carlos, 2008. "Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1415-1427, November.
  14. Huseyin Ince & Ali Fehim Cebeci & Salih Zeki Imamoglu, 2019. "An Artificial Neural Network-Based Approach to the Monetary Model of Exchange Rate," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 817-831, February.
  15. Duan, Huayou & Zhao, Chenchen & Wang, Lu & Liu, Guangqiang, 2024. "The relationship between renewable energy attention and volatility: A HAR model with markov time-varying transition probability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  16. Dai, Zhifeng & Kang, Jie & Hu, Yangli, 2021. "Efficient predictability of oil price: The role of number of IPOs and U.S. dollar index," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  17. Schroeder, Anna Louise & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2013. "Adaptive trend estimation in financial time series via multiscale change-point-induced basis recovery," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54934, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  18. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Chakriya Bowman, 2004. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment," IMF Working Papers 2004/041, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Baghestani, Hamid & Toledo, Hugo, 2017. "Do analysts' forecasts of term spread differential help predict directional change in exchange rates?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 62-69.
  20. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2008. "Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 274-290.
  21. de Zwart, Gerben & Markwat, Thijs & Swinkels, Laurens & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "The economic value of fundamental and technical information in emerging currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 581-604, June.
  22. T. Hendricks & B. Kempa & C. Pierdzioch, 2010. "Do local analysts have an informational advantage in forecasting stock returns? Evidence from the German DAX30," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 24(2), pages 137-158, June.
  23. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [euro;]36.18, Hardback, ISBN 0-521-770416-0, $90, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
  24. Haibin Xie & Yuying Sun & Pengying Fan, 2023. "Return direction forecasting: a conditional autoregressive shape model with beta density," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.
  25. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
  26. Qing Zhou & Robert Faff, 2017. "The complementary role of cross-sectional and time-series information in forecasting stock returns," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(1), pages 113-139, February.
  27. Hui Qu & Tianyang Wang & Peng Shangguan & Mengying He, 2024. "Revisiting the puzzle of jumps in volatility forecasting: The new insights of high‐frequency jump intensity," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 218-251, February.
  28. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Giulia Sestieri, 2012. "The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 100-115, February.
  29. Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Forecasting in a complex environment: Machine learning sales expectations in a stock flow consistent agent-based simulation model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  30. Eun, Cheol S. & Sabherwal, Sanjiv, 2002. "Forecasting exchange rates: Do banks know better?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 195-215.
  31. Jacobs, Michael & Karagozoglu, Ahmet K., 2014. "On the characteristics of dynamic correlations between asset pairs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 60-82.
  32. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia," Working Papers 2009-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  33. Moosa, Imad & Burns, Kelly, 2014. "The unbeatable random walk in exchange rate forecasting: Reality or myth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 69-81.
  34. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Massacci, Daniele & Soccorsi, Stefano, 2021. "Forecasting stock returns with large dimensional factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 252-269.
  35. Çakmaklı, Cem & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 650-668.
  36. Cakici, Nusret & Fieberg, Christian & Metko, Daniel & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Machine learning goes global: Cross-sectional return predictability in international stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  37. Ellwanger, Reinhard & Snudden, Stephen, 2025. "Putting VAR forecasts of the real price of crude oil to the test," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  38. Pablo Pincheira Brown & Nicolás Hardy, 2024. "Correlation‐based tests of predictability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1835-1858, September.
  39. Alexander Jakob Dautel & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Stefan Lessmann & Hsin-Vonn Seow, 2020. "Forex exchange rate forecasting using deep recurrent neural networks," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 69-96, September.
  40. Tao Chen & Yixuan Li & Renfang Tian, 2023. "A Functional Data Approach for Continuous-Time Analysis Subject to Modeling Discrepancy under Infill Asymptotics," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-27, October.
  41. Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
  42. Skouras, Spyros, 2007. "Decisionmetrics: A decision-based approach to econometric modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 414-440, April.
  43. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2025. "Unlocking predictive potential: The frequency-domain approach to equity premium forecasting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  44. Campbell, Sean D. & Diebold, Francis X., 2009. "Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions: Half a Century of Direct Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 266-278.
  45. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Model-Free Evaluation of Directional Predictability in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  46. Huei-Wen Teng & Yu-Hsien Li, 2023. "Can deep neural networks outperform Fama-MacBeth regression and other supervised learning approaches in stock returns prediction with asset-pricing factors?," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 149-182, March.
  47. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt0jc800x9, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  48. Graham Elliott & Takatoshi Ito, 1995. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Foreign Exchange Rate Market," NBER Working Papers 5376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2016. "The economic value of predicting bond risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 247-267.
  50. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  51. Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1997. "A Model Selection Approach To Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models And Artificial Neural Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 540-550, November.
  52. D. J. Johnstone & S. Jones & V. R. R. Jose & M. Peat, 2013. "Measures of the economic value of probabilities of bankruptcy," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 635-653, June.
  53. Hamid Baghestani, 2010. "Predicting the direction of change in aggregate demand growth and its components," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 292-302.
  54. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  55. Prem P. Talwar & Edward J. Chambers, 1993. "Forecasting Provincial Business Indicator Variables and Forecast Evaluation," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 30(10), pages 1763-1773, December.
  56. Baghestani, Hamid, 2011. "Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 290-305, July.
  57. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
  58. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  59. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 411-425.
  60. Abraham Itzhak Weinberg, 2025. "Hybrid Quantum-Classical Ensemble Learning for S\&P 500 Directional Prediction," Papers 2512.15738, arXiv.org.
  61. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.
  62. Luo, Tao & Zhang, Lixia & Sun, Huaping & Bai, Jiancheng, 2023. "Enhancing exchange rate volatility prediction accuracy: Assessing the influence of different indices on the USD/CNY exchange rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
  63. Baur, Dirk G. & Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Wendt, Viktoria-Sophie, 2020. "Investing in gold – Market timing or buy-and-hold?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  64. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2010. "The monetary model strikes back: Evidence from the world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 184-196, July.
  65. Hamid Baghestani & Bassam Abual-Foul, 2010. "Evidence on Forecasting Inflation Under Asymmetric Loss," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 55(1), pages 105-110, May.
  66. Macdonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 1996. "Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 665-685, October.
  67. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 529, European Central Bank.
  68. Yang, Jian & Cabrera, Juan & Wang, Tao, 2010. "Nonlinearity, data-snooping, and stock index ETF return predictability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 498-507, January.
  69. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
  70. Abdul-Rashid Abdul-Rahaman & Coleman Martha & Emmanuel Caesar Ayamba, 2024. "Exchange Rate Models and the Management of Forex Losses in Ghana: Modelling Exchange Rate Volatilities for Businesses," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 49(4), pages 679-703, November.
  71. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2014. "Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 186-195.
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