'Optimal' probabilistic and directional predictions of financial returns
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
- James W. Taylor, 2005. "Generating Volatility Forecasts from Value at Risk Estimates," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 712-725, May.
- Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992.
"No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
- John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hentschel, Ludger & Campbell, John, 1992. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3220232, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2006.
"Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics,"
INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1273-1287, August.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X.Diebold, 2003. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-009, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2003. "Financial asset returns, direction-of-change forecasting, and volatility dynamics," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005.
"A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association,
American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
- Lan Zhang & Per A. Mykland & Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2003. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility with Noisy High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 10111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
- Schwert, G William & Seguin, Paul J, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
- Yongmiao Hong & Halbert White, 2005. "Asymptotic Distribution Theory for Nonparametric Entropy Measures of Serial Dependence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 837-901, May.
- Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, February.
- Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004.
"CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
- Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
- Lo, Andrew W. & Craig MacKinlay, A., 1990.
"An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 181-211.
- Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, "undated". "An Econometric Analysis of Nonsyschronous-Trading," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989. "An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading," NBER Working Papers 2960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
- French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
- Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
- Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May.
- Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2007. "Modeling Financial Return Dynamics by Decomposition," Working Papers w0095, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Leitch, Gordon & Tanner, J Ernest, 1991. "Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 580-590, June.
- Modarres, Reza, 2002. "Efficient nonparametric estimation of a distribution function," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 75-95, March.
- Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
CitationsCitations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- James W. Taylor & Keming Yu, 2016. "Using auto-regressive logit models to forecast the exceedance probability for financial risk management," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(4), pages 1069-1092, October.
More about this item
KeywordsMaximum responsiveness Probabilistic predictions Sign predictions Volatility;
StatisticsAccess and download statistics
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:1:p:102-119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.