Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting with DSGE Models
2. Forecasting

2012

• Oscar Jorda & Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor, 2012, "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles and Crises," Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics, number 172, Oct.
• Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2012, "What causes banking crises? An empirical investigation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, number E2012/14, Jun, revised Apr 2013.
• Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2012, "Testing DSGE models by Indirect inference and other methods: some Monte Carlo experiments," Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, number E2012/15, Jun.
• Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2012, "Testing macroeconomic models by indirect inference on unfiltered data," Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, number E2012/17, Jul.
• Liu, Chunping & Minford, Patrick, 2012, "How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis," Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, number E2012/22, Aug, revised Dec 2013.
• Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2002, "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC San Diego, number qt4n99t4wz, Jun.
• Giacomini, Raffaella, 2002, "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests: Asymptotic and Bootstrap Methods," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC San Diego, number qt59s2g5j5, Jun.
• Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003, "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC San Diego, number qt5jk0j5jh, Jun.
• Giovanni Cerulli & Bianca Potì, 2012, "Evaluating the robustness of the effect of public subsidies on firms’ R&D: an application to Italy," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, volume 15, pages 287-320, November.
• Gebhard Flaig, 2012, "Why We Should Use High Values for the Smoothing Parameter of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 3816.
• Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012, "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 3956.
• Sasa Zikovic & Randall Filer, 2012, "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 3980.
• Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010, "Thresholds, News Impact Surfaces and Dynamic Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH," CARF F-Series, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, number CARF-F-217, May.
• Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010, "Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension," CARF F-Series, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, number CARF-F-219, May.
• Igor Kheifets & Carlos Velasco, 2012, "Model Adequacy Checks for Discrete Choice Dynamic Models," Working Papers, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR), number w0170, Feb.
• Carlos Medel, 2012, "How Informative are In–Sample Information Criteria to Forecasting? The Case of Chilean GDP," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 657, Jan.
• Carlos Medel, 2012, "¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para Predecir el PIB Chileno?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 658, Jan.
• Carlos A. Medel & Sergio C. Salgado, 2012, "Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better Than AIC?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 679, Nov.
• Jeroen Rombouts & Lars Stentoft & Francesco Violente, 2012, "The Value of Multivariate Model Sophistication: An Application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average Options," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2012s-05, Feb.
• Michael B. Devereux & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2012, "The extensive margin, sectoral shares, and international business cycles," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, volume 45, issue 2, pages 509-534, May, DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5982.2012.01707.x.
• Wolfgang Polasek, 2012, "MCMC Estimation of Extended Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filtering Models," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 1, pages 25-52, March.
• Tito Yepes & Alejandro Vivas & Isabella Mu�oz & Alejandro Becerra & Felipe Castro & Juan Carlos Junca & Arturo Qui�ones, 2012, "Evaluación del marco regulatorio expedido por la Comisión de Regulación de Comunicaciones entre 2009 y 2011. Informe Final," Informes de Investigación, Fedesarrollo, number 12984, Dec.
• Elkin Argemiro Castano Velez & Jorge Sierra Almanza, 2012, "Sobre la existencia de una raíz unitaria en la serie de tiempo mensual del precio de la electricidad en Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
• Fredy Ocaris Pérez Ramírez & Armando Len�n T�mara Ay�s, 2012, "Análisis discriminante como seleccionador de variables incluyentes en el cálculo de la probabilidad de incumplimiento," Revista Ciencias Estratégicas, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana.
• ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V. K. & STENTOFT, Lars & VIOLANTE, Francesco, 2012, "The value of multivariate model sophistication: an application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average options," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2012003, Feb.
• Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2012, "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 8755, Jan.
• Dolado, Juan J & Ortigueira, Salvador & Stucchi, Rodolfo, 2012, "Does dual employment protection affect TFP? Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 8763, Jan.
• Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2012, "Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 8800, Feb.
• Crawford, Gregory, 2012, "Endogenous Product Choice: A Progress Report," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 8862, Feb.
• Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Meenagh, David & Le, Vo Phuong Mai, 2012, "Testing DSGE models by Indirect inference and other methods: some Monte Carlo experiments," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 9056, Jul.
• Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David & Le, Vo Phuong Mai, 2012, "What causes banking crises? An empirical investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 9057, Jul.
• Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Meenagh, David, 2012, "Testing macroeconomic models by indirect inference on unfiltered data," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 9058, Jul.
• Minford, Patrick & Liu, Chunping, 2012, "How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 9142, Sep.
• Jeong, Kiho & Härdle, Wolfgang K. & Song, Song, 2012, "A Consistent Nonparametric Test For Causality In Quantile," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, volume 28, issue 4, pages 861-887, August.
• Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2012, "The Log-Linear Return Approximation, Bubbles, and Predictability," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, volume 47, issue 3, pages 643-665, June.
• Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2012, "Aggregate Idiosyncratic Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, volume 47, issue 6, pages 1155-1185, December.
• Etner, François (ed.), 2012, "Comment justifier la multibancarité au sein des PME ?," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/10919.
• Katja Landau & Stephan Klasen & Walter Zucchini, 2012, "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), number 481.
• Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2012, "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US: New Results," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), number 525.
• A. Ronald Gallant & Han Hong & Ahmed Khwaja, 2012, "Bayesian Estimation of a Dynamic Game with Endogenous, Partially Observed, Serially Correlated State," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 12-01.
• Issa ALI & Reetu VERMA, 2012, "Economic Development and Structural Breaks: An Application of the Lee and Strazicich(2003) Lagrange Multiplier Test to the Libyan Economy, 1970-2007," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, volume 12, issue 1.
• Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012, "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number ECARES 2012-002, Jan.
• Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E., 2012, "Prior selection for vector autoregressions," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 1494, Nov.
• Orazio Attanasio & Erich Battistin & Alice Mesnard, 2012, "Food and Cash Transfers: Evidence from Colombia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 122, issue 559, pages 92-124, March, DOI: j.1468-0297.2011.02473.x.
• Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2012, "Endogenous Persistence in an estimated DSGE Model Under Imperfect Information," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 122, issue 565, pages 1287-1312, December, DOI: j.1468-0297.2012.02524.x.
• Viktor Todorov & George Tauchen, 2012, "The Realized Laplace Transform of Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, volume 80, issue 3, pages 1105-1127, May, DOI: ECTA9133.
• Pierre‐Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton & Laurent Gobillon & Diego Puga & Sébastien Roux, 2012, "The Productivity Advantages of Large Cities: Distinguishing Agglomeration From Firm Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, volume 80, issue 6, pages 2543-2594, November, DOI: ECTA8442.
• Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012, "Baysian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2012-11.
• Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012, "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2012-14.
• Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012, "Bayesian forecasting with highly correlated predictors," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2012-80.
• You, Kefei & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012, "Structural breaks and the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of China: A NATREX approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 23, issue 4, pages 1146-1163, DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2012.08.002.
• Fossati, Sebastian, 2012, "Covariate unit root tests with good size and power," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 56, issue 11, pages 3070-3079, DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2011.05.019.
• Ardia, David & Baştürk, Nalan & Hoogerheide, Lennart & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012, "A comparative study of Monte Carlo methods for efficient evaluation of marginal likelihood," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 56, issue 11, pages 3398-3414, DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2010.09.001.
• Packalen, Mikko & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2012, "Inference about clustering and parametric assumptions in covariance matrix estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 56, issue 1, pages 1-14, January.
• Karaivanov, Alexander, 2012, "Financial constraints and occupational choice in Thai villages," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, volume 97, issue 2, pages 201-220, DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.05.002.
• Rondina, Francesca, 2012, "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the US postwar policy response to oil prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 7, pages 1009-1041, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.01.013.
• Heilemann, Ullrich & Findeis, Hagen, 2012, "Empirical determination of aggregate demand and supply curves: The example of the RWI Business Cycle Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 2, pages 158-165, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.09.003.
• Argov, Eyal, 2012, "The choice of a foreign price measure in a Bayesian estimated new-Keynesian model for Israel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 2, pages 408-420, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.11.011.
• Buck, Andrew J. & Lady, George M., 2012, "Structural sign patterns and reduced form restrictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 2, pages 462-470, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.12.003.
• Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2012, "South African stock return predictability in the context data mining: The role of financial variables and international stock returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 3, pages 908-916, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.12.013.
• Ourir, Awatef & Snoussi, Wafa, 2012, "Markets liquidity risk under extremal dependence: Analysis with VaRs methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 5, pages 1830-1836, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.036.
• Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012, "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 6, pages 2174-2182, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.04.011.
• Becker, Ralf & Osborn, Denise R. & Yildirim, Dilem, 2012, "A threshold cointegration analysis of interest rate pass-through to UK mortgage rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 6, pages 2504-2513, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.08.004.
• Halkos, George E. & Jones, Nikoleta, 2012, "Modeling the effect of social factors on improving biodiversity protection," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, volume 78, issue C, pages 90-99, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.04.003.
• Caraiani, Petre, 2012, "Nonlinear dynamics in CEE stock markets indices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 114, issue 3, pages 329-331, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.11.010.
• Zhang, Lingxiang, 2012, "Test for linearity against STAR models with deterministic trends," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 115, issue 1, pages 16-19, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.11.018.
• Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut, 2012, "Causal relations between inflation and inflation uncertainty—Cross sectional evidence in favour of the Friedman–Ball hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 115, issue 2, pages 144-147, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.036.
• Parente, Paulo M.D.C. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2012, "A cautionary note on tests of overidentifying restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 115, issue 2, pages 314-317, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.047.
• Kvedaras, Virmantas & Zemlys, Vaidotas, 2012, "Testing the functional constraints on parameters in regressions with variables of different frequency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 116, issue 2, pages 250-254, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.03.009.
• Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2012, "On the interpretation of panel unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 116, issue 3, pages 545-546, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.049.
• Karamé, F., 2012, "An algorithm for generalized impulse-response functions in Markov-switching structural VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 117, issue 1, pages 230-234, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.089.
• Taylor, Nicholas, 2012, "Testing forecasting model versatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 117, issue 3, pages 803-806, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.08.044.
• Moul, Charles C., 2012, "A new test for monopoly with limited cost data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 117, issue 3, pages 891-894, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.07.007.
• Hagemann, Andreas, 2012, "A simple test for regression specification with non-nested alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 166, issue 2, pages 247-254, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.09.037.
• Hong, Han & Preston, Bruce, 2012, "Bayesian averaging, prediction and nonnested model selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 167, issue 2, pages 358-369, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.09.021.
• Mariano, Roberto S. & Preve, Daniel, 2012, "Statistical tests for multiple forecast comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 169, issue 1, pages 123-130, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.01.014.
• Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim & Tang, Yao, 2012, "Comparison of misspecified calibrated models: The minimum distance approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 169, issue 1, pages 131-138, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.01.007.
• Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012, "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 169, issue 2, pages 239-246, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.01.026.
• Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2012, "In-sample tests of predictive ability: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 170, issue 1, pages 1-14, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.09.012.
• Fanelli, Luca, 2012, "Determinacy, indeterminacy and dynamic misspecification in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 170, issue 1, pages 153-163, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.04.002.
• Kim, Don H. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2012, "Term structure models and the zero bound: An empirical investigation of Japanese yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 170, issue 1, pages 32-49, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.12.005.
• Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi & Nason, James M. & Rossi, Barbara, 2012, "Information criteria for impulse response function matching estimation of DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 170, issue 2, pages 499-518, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.05.019.
• Marmer, Vadim & Otsu, Taisuke, 2012, "Optimal comparison of misspecified moment restriction models under a chosen measure of fit," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 170, issue 2, pages 538-550, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.05.021.
• Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2012, "Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 171, issue 2, pages 167-184, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.06.013.
• Chen, Yi-Ting, 2012, "A simple approach to standardized-residuals-based higher-moment tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 19, issue 4, pages 427-453, DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2012.04.006.
• Benavides, Guillermo & Capistrán, Carlos, 2012, "Forecasting exchange rate volatility: The superior performance of conditional combinations of time series and option implied forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 19, issue 5, pages 627-639, DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2012.07.001.
• Wu, Chih-Chiang & Chung, Huimin & Chang, Yu-Hsien, 2012, "The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 1, pages 270-282, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.007.
• Hou, Aijun & Suardi, Sandy, 2012, "A nonparametric GARCH model of crude oil price return volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 2, pages 618-626, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.08.004.
• Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki & Goto, Mika, 2012, "Efficiency-based rank assessment for electric power industry: A combined use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and DEA-Discriminant Analysis (DA)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 3, pages 634-644, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.04.001.
• Nomikos, Nikos & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2012, "Modelling energy spot prices: Empirical evidence from NYMEX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 4, pages 1153-1169, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.10.001.
• Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012, "Forecasting spot price volatility using the short-term forward curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 6, pages 1826-1833, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.017.
• Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012, "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 6, pages 2167-2181, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.03.010.
• Pineda, S. & Conejo, A.J., 2012, "Managing the financial risks of electricity producers using options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 6, pages 2216-2227, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.03.016.
• Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2012, "Some curious power properties of long-horizon tests," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, volume 9, issue 2, pages 81-91, DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2011.10.001.
• Crawford, Gregory S., 2012, "Endogenous product choice: A progress report," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, volume 30, issue 3, pages 315-320, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2011.12.006.
• O’Hare, Colin & Li, Youwei, 2012, "Explaining young mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, volume 50, issue 1, pages 12-25, DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2011.09.005.
• Giacometti, Rosella & Bertocchi, Marida & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2012, "A comparison of the Lee–Carter model and AR–ARCH model for forecasting mortality rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, volume 50, issue 1, pages 85-93, DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2011.10.002.
• Griffin, Philip S. & Maller, Ross A. & Schaik, Kees van, 2012, "Asymptotic distributions of the overshoot and undershoots for the Lévy insurance risk process in the Cramér and convolution equivalent cases," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, volume 51, issue 2, pages 382-392, DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2012.06.005.
• Bernardi, Mauro & Maruotti, Antonello & Petrella, Lea, 2012, "Skew mixture models for loss distributions: A Bayesian approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, volume 51, issue 3, pages 617-623, DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2012.08.002.
• You, Kefei & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012, "A twelve-area model for the equilibrium Chinese Yuan/US dollar nominal exchange rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, volume 22, issue 1, pages 151-170, DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2011.08.005.
• Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paya, Ivan, 2012, "Forecasting monetary policy rules in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 2, pages 446-455, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.04.006.
• Kim, Hyeongwoo & Durmaz, Nazif, 2012, "Bias correction and out-of-sample forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 3, pages 575-586, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.02.009.
• Yallup, Peter J., 2012, "Models of the yield curve and the curvature of the implied forward rate function," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 1, pages 121-135, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.06.010.
• Chrétien, Stéphane, 2012, "Bounds on the autocorrelation of admissible stochastic discount factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 7, pages 1943-1962, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.03.002.
• Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Pei, Pei, 2012, "Pitfalls in backtesting Historical Simulation VaR models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 8, pages 2233-2244, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.04.004.
• Vashishtha, Ashutosh & Sharma, Anil K., 2012, "Indian financial market regulation: A dialectic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, volume 64, issue 1, pages 77-89, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2011.05.002.
• Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2012, "Variance bounds on the permanent and transitory components of stochastic discount factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, volume 105, issue 1, pages 191-208, DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.01.003.
• Dardanoni, Valentino & Li Donni, Paolo, 2012, "Incentive and selection effects of Medigap insurance on inpatient care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, volume 31, issue 3, pages 457-470, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2012.02.007.
• Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Matousek, Roman & Stewart, Chris, 2012, "Ratings assignments: Lessons from international banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, volume 31, issue 6, pages 1593-1606, DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.02.018.
• Cohen-Cole, Ethan B. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2012, "Nonlinearities in growth: From evidence to policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 1, pages 42-58, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.07.001.
• Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012, "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 3, pages 637-651, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.01.010.
• Féve, Patrick & Jidoud, Ahmat, 2012, "Identifying News Shocks from SVARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 4, pages 919-932, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.07.002.
• Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Otter, Pieter W. & den Reijer, Ard H.J., 2012, "Information, data dimension and factor structure," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, volume 106, issue C, pages 80-91, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2011.11.003.
• Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gadea, Maria Dolores, 2012, "The single monetary policy and domestic macro-fundamentals: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 1, pages 16-34, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.09.002.
• Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012, "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 6, pages 864-878, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.01.010.
• Cappelen, Ådne & Raknerud, Arvid & Rybalka, Marina, 2012, "The effects of R&D tax credits on patenting and innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, volume 41, issue 2, pages 334-345, DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2011.10.001.
• Kao, Lie-Jane & Wu, Po-Cheng & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2012, "Time-changed GARCH versus the GARJI model for prediction of extreme news events: An empirical study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, volume 21, issue 1, pages 115-129, DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2011.05.001.
• Liu, Hung-Chun & Chiang, Shu-Mei & Cheng, Nick Ying-Pin, 2012, "Forecasting the volatility of S&P depositary receipts using GARCH-type models under intraday range-based and return-based proxy measures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, volume 22, issue 1, pages 78-91, DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2011.08.007.
• Wang, Chou-Wen & Wu, Chin-Wen & Tzang, Shyh-Weir, 2012, "Implementing option pricing models when asset returns follow an autoregressive moving average process," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, volume 24, issue C, pages 8-25, DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2011.12.003.
• Rodney W. Strachan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012, "Evidence on a DSGE Business Cycle model subject to Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks using Bayesian Model Averaging," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2012-03, Feb.
• Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2012, "Marginal Likelihood Estimation with the Cross-Entropy Method," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2012-18, May.
• Yin Liao, 2012, "Does Modeling Jumps Help? A Comparison of Realized Volatility Models for Risk Prediction," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2012-26, Jun.
• Valentino Dardanoni & Paolo Li Donni, 2012, "Incentive and Selection Effects of Medigap Insurance on Inpatient Care," EIEF Working Papers Series, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), number 1203, revised Feb 2012.
• Seong-Min Yoon & Sang Hoon Kang, 2012, "Modelling and forecasting the volatility of petroleum futures prices," EcoMod2012, EcoMod, number 3944, Jul.
• Fabio Milani, 2012, "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: A Survey," Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, "DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments", DOI: 10.1108/S0731-9053(2012)0000028004.
• Fabio Milani & Ashish Rajbhandari, 2012, "Expectation Formation and Monetary DSGE Models: Beyond the Rational Expectations Paradigm," Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, "DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments", DOI: 10.1108/S0731-9053(2012)0000028009.
• Ndahiriwe Kasaï & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2012, "Financial assets, linear and nonlinear policy rules," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, volume 39, issue 2, pages 161-177, May, DOI: 10.1108/01443581211222644.
• George Karathanasis & Vasilios Sogiakas & Kenellos Toudas, 2012, "Derivatives listing strategy," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, volume 20, issue 3, pages 307-321, July, DOI: 10.1108/13581981211237990.
• Caporin, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2012, "Robust Ranking of Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI2012-13, Apr.
• Alessandro Cardinali, 2012, "An Out-of-sample Analysis of Mean-Variance Portfolios with Orthogonal GARCH Factors," International Econometric Review (IER), Economic Research Association, volume 4, issue 1, pages 1-16, April.
• Jan R. Magnus & Karen Poghosyan, 2012, "WALS Estimation and Forecasting in Factor-based Dynamic Models with an Application to Armenia," International Econometric Review (IER), Economic Research Association, volume 4, issue 1, pages 40-58, April.
• Christian Buelens, 2012, "Inflation forecasting and the crisis: assessing the impact on the performance of different forecasting models and methods," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, number 451, Mar.
• Frédéric Karamé, 2012, "An Algorithm for Generalized Impulse-Response Functions in Markov-Switching Structural VAR," Documents de recherche, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne, number 12-04.
• Valter Di Giacinto & Matteo Gomellini & Giacinto Micucci & Marcello Pagnini, 2012, "The productivity advantages of spatial concentration: evidence from Italian Industrial districts and cities," ECONOMIA E POLITICA INDUSTRIALE, FrancoAngeli Editore, volume 2012, issue 2, pages 163-175.
• Òscar Jordà & Malte Knuppel & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012, "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, number 2012-05.
• Dario Caldara & Christophe Kamps, 2012, "The analytics of SVARs: a unified framework to measure fiscal multipliers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 2012-20.
• Jaroslav Borovicka & Lars Peter Hansen, 2012, "Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, number WP-2012-01.
• Leonardo Melosi, 2012, "Signaling effects of monetary policy," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, number WP-2012-05.
• Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2012, "Forecasting national recessions using state level data," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 2012-013, DOI: 10.20955/wp.2012.013.
• Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2012, "Realized Volatility and Change of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", number 2012_02, Jul, revised Jul 2012.
• Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2012, "Volatility Swings in the US Financial Markets," Econometrics Working Papers Archive, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", number 2012_03, Jul, revised Jul 2012.
• Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012, "Large time-varying parameter VARs," Working Papers, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, number 2012_04, Jan.
• Dimitris Korobilis, 2012, "Bayesian forecasting with highly correlated predictors," Working Papers, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, number 2012_12, Jul.
• Katja Landau & Stephan Klasen & Walter Zucchini, 2012, "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers, Courant Research Centre PEG, number 118, Jul.
• Mubariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2012, "The Relationship between Inflation, output growth, and their Uncertainties: Evidence from selected CEE countries," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics, number 20128.
• Christophe Boucher & Benjamin Hamidi & Patrick Kouontchou & Bertrand Maillet, 2012, "Une évaluation économique du risque de modèle pour les investisseurs de long terme," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number hal-00820721, May, DOI: 10.3917/reco.633.0591.
• Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012, "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et " suppresseur classique ", aide au développement et croissance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00674011, Feb.
• Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012, "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et "suppresseur classique", aide au développement et croissance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00686765, DOI: 10.3917/reco.633.0557.
• Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012, "Spurious Regressions and Near-Multicollinearity, with an Application to Aid, Policies and Growth," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00802579, Nov.
• Christophe Boucher & Benjamin Hamidi & Patrick Kouontchou & Bertrand Maillet, 2012, "Une évaluation économique du risque de modèle pour les investisseurs de long-terme," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00825337, Jan.
• Pierre-Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton & Laurent Gobillon & Diego Puga & Sébastien Roux, 2012, "The productivity advantages of large cities: distingushing agglomeration from firm selection," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-00812695, Nov, DOI: 10.3982/ECTA8442.
• Christophe Boucher & Benjamin Hamidi & Patrick Kouontchou & Bertrand Maillet, 2012, "Une évaluation économique du risque de modèle pour les investisseurs de long-terme," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-01386007.
• F. Karamé, 2012, "An algorithm for generalized impulse-response functions in Markov-switching structural VAR," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-02877971, Oct, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.089.
• Nicolas Debarsy, 2012, "The Mundlak Approach in the Spatial Durbin Panel Data Model," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-04989094, Mar, DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2011.647059.
• Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012, "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et " suppresseur classique ", aide au développement et croissance," Post-Print, HAL, number halshs-00674011, Feb.
• Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012, "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et "suppresseur classique", aide au développement et croissance," Post-Print, HAL, number halshs-00686765, DOI: 10.3917/reco.633.0557.
• Pierre-Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton & Laurent Gobillon & Diego Puga & Sébastien Roux, 2012, "The productivity advantages of large cities: distingushing agglomeration from firm selection," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL, number hal-00812695, Nov, DOI: 10.3982/ECTA8442.
• Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012, "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et "suppresseur classique", aide au développement et croissance," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL, number halshs-00686765, DOI: 10.3917/reco.633.0557.
• R. Khalfaoui & M. Boutahar, 2012, "Portfolio Risk Evaluation: An Approach Based on Dynamic Conditional Correlations Models and Wavelet Multi-Resolution Analysis," Working Papers, HAL, number halshs-00793068, Mar.
• Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2012, "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US: New Results," Working Papers, HAL, number halshs-00805736, Jul.
• Kaufmann, Hendrik & Kruse, Robinson & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2012, "A simple specification procedure for the transition function in persistent nonlinear time series models," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP), Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, number dp-500, Jul.
• Li, Yushu, 2012, "Wavelet Based Outlier Correction for Power Controlled Turning Point Detection in Surveillance Systems," Working Papers, Lund University, Department of Economics, number 2012:12, May.
• Li, Dao & He, Changli, 2012, "Testing for Linear Cointegration Against Smooth-Transition Cointegration," Working Papers, Örebro University, School of Business, number 2012:6, Feb.
• Li, Dao & He, Changli, 2012, "Testing Common Nonlinear Features in Nonlinear Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers, Örebro University, School of Business, number 2012:7, Feb.
• Lönnbark, Carl, 2012, "On the role of the estimation error in prediction of expected shortfall," Umeå Economic Studies, Umeå University, Department of Economics, number 844, Aug.
• Hossein Mirshojaeian Hosseini & Shinji Kaneko, 2012, "Spatial Spillover of Governance and Institutional Quality: A Spatial Econometric Approach," IDEC DP2 Series, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), number 2-3, Jan.
• Nakajima, Jouchi & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2012, "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Modei-A Survey with the Application to the Japanese Macroeconomic Data-," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, volume 63, issue 3, pages 193-208, July, DOI: 10.15057/25864.
• Jouchi Nakajima & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2012, "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model - A Survey with the Application to the Japanese Macroeconomic Data -," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, number gd12-232, Apr.
• Torben G. Andersen & Nicola Fusari & Viktor Todorov, 2012, "Parametric Inference and Dynamic State Recovery from Option Panels," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, number gd12-266, Dec.
• Terrance Jalbert & James E. Briley & Mercedes Jalbert, 2012, "Forecasting Financial Statements Using Risk Management Associates Industry Data," Business Education and Accreditation, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, volume 4, issue 1, pages 123-134.
• Fève, Patrick & Jidoud, Ahmat, 2012, "Identifying News Shocks from SVARs," IDEI Working Papers, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, number 706, Mar.
• Fève, Patrick & Jidoud, Ahmat, 2012, "News Shocks, Information Flows and SVARs," IDEI Working Papers, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, number 705, Mar.
• Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2012, "Model comparisons in unstable environments," CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies, number CWP13/12, Jun.
• Polasek, Wolfgang, 2012, "Marketing Response Models for Shrinking Beer Sales in Germany," Economics Series, Institute for Advanced Studies, number 284, Mar.
• Sabine Zinn, 2012, "A Mate-Matching Algorithm for Continuous-Time Microsimulation Models," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, volume 5, issue 1, pages 31-51.
• Edgar C. Merkle & Jinyan Fan & Achim Zeileis, 2012, "Testing for Measurement Invariance with Respect to an Ordinal Variable," Working Papers, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, number 2012-24, Oct.
• Yannira Chávez & Paúl Medina, 2012, "Diferencia de gastos según tamaño y composición familiar: una aplicación para Ecuador usando escalas de equivalencia," Analítika, Analítika - Revista de Análisis Estadístico/Journal of Statistical Analysis, volume 4, issue 2, pages 7-24, Diciembre.
• Juan Carlos Escanciano & Pei Pei, 2012, "Pitfalls in Backtesting Historical Simulation VaR Models," CAEPR Working Papers, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington, number 2012-003, Feb.
• A. Martínez, Carlos & A. Núñez, José, 2012, "Análisis de componentes principales de la estructura a plazos de las tasas de interés en México," eseconomía, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, volume 0, issue 33, pages 3-23, primer tr.
• Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012, "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports, Joint Research Centre, number JRC75524, Oct.
• Fabio Milani & Ashish Rajbhandari, 2012, "Expectation Formation and Monetary DSGE Models: Beyond the Rational Expectations Paradigm," Working Papers, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics, number 111212, Jun.
• Fabio Milani, 2012, "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: a Survey," Working Papers, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics, number 121301, Jun.
• Matteo Luciani & Libero Monteforte, 2012, "Uncertainty and Heterogeneity in factor models forecasting," Working Papers, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance, number 16, May.
• Matteo Luciani & Libero Monteforte, 2012, "Uncertainty and Heterogeneity in factor models forecasting," Working Papers, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance, number 5, May.
• Rothe, Christoph & Wied, Dominik, 2012, "Misspecification Testing in a Class of Conditional Distributional Models," IZA Discussion Papers, IZA Network @ LISER, number 6364, Feb.
• Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent & Puga, Diego & Roux, Sébastien, 2012, "The Productivity Advantages of Large Cities: Distinguishing Agglomeration from Firm Selection," IZA Discussion Papers, IZA Network @ LISER, number 6502, Apr.
• de Luna, Xavier & Johansson, Per, 2012, "Testing for Nonparametric Identification of Causal Effects in the Presence of a Quasi-Instrument," IZA Discussion Papers, IZA Network @ LISER, number 6692, Jun.
• Bargain, Olivier B. & Orsini, Kristian & Peichl, Andreas, 2012, "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US: New Results," IZA Discussion Papers, IZA Network @ LISER, number 6735, Jul.
• Haruhisa Nishino & Kazuhiko Kakamu & Takashi Oga, 2012, "Bayesian estimation of Persistent Income Inequality using the Lognormal Stochastic Volatility Model," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., volume 21, issue 1, pages 88-101, March.
• Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2012, "Lasso-type and Heuristic Strategies in Model Selection and Forecasting," Jena Economics Research Papers, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, number 2012-055, Oct.