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Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et " suppresseur classique ", aide au développement et croissance

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Bernard Chatelain

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Kirsten Ralf

    () (Ecole Supérieure du Commerce Extérieur - ESCE - International business school)

Abstract

This paper shows that a multiple regression with two highly correlated explanatory variables, both of them with a near zero correlation with the dependent variable may correspond to a spurious regression or to a homeostatic model, with estimates highly sensible to outliers. The regression method does not allow how to decide which one of the two models is relevant. Statistical significance of the (very high) parameters is easily obtained, as shown doing Monte Carlo simulations. An example is provided by the Burnside and Dollar [2000] article on aid, policies and growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et " suppresseur classique ", aide au développement et croissance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00674011, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00674011
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00674011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2014. "Spurious regressions and near-multicollinearity, with an application to aid, policies and growth," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 85-96.
    2. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2010. "Conditional aid effectiveness: A meta-study," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 391-410.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Remy Bolito-Losembe, 2014. "Corruption et Etats fragiles africains," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 50-58.
    2. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Asongu Simplice, 2016. "State fragility, rent seeking and lobbying: evidence from African data," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(10), pages 1016-1030, October.
    3. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis, 2012. "Entrepreneurship and property right: de Soto'r right
      [Entrepreneuriat et droit de propriété : de Soto a raison]
      ," MPRA Paper 43464, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spurious regression; near-multicollinearity; classical suppressor; parameter inflation factor (PIF); aid; economic growth.; croissance économique.; aide au développement; facteur d'inflation d'un paramètre; suppresseur classique; quasi-colinéarité; croissance économique; Régression fallacieuse; suppresseur classique;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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