Spurious Regressions and Near-Multicollinearity, with an Application to Aid, Policies and Growth
Explanatory variables with simple correlation coefficients with the dependent variable below 0.1 in absolute value (such as aid with economic growth) may have very large and statistically significant estimated parameters in multiple regressions, which are unifortunately "outliers driven" or spurious. This is obtained by including another regressor which is highly correlated with the initial regressor, such as a lag, a square or interaction terms of this regressor. The analysis is applied on the "Botswana outliers driven" Burnside and Dollar  article which found that aid had an effect on growth only for countries achieving "good" macroeconomic policies
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- Chatelain, Jean-Bernard, 2010.
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- Samuel Bazzi & Michael A. Clemens, 2013. "Blunt Instruments: Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 152-186, April.
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