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Spurious Regressions and Near-Multicollinearity, with an Application to Aid, Policies and Growth

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Abstract

Explanatory variables with simple correlation coefficients with the dependent variable below 0.1 in absolute value (such as aid with economic growth) may have very large and statistically significant estimated parameters in multiple regressions, which are unifortunately "outliers driven" or spurious. This is obtained by including another regressor which is highly correlated with the initial regressor, such as a lag, a square or interaction terms of this regressor. The analysis is applied on the "Botswana outliers driven" Burnside and Dollar [2000] article which found that aid had an effect on growth only for countries achieving "good" macroeconomic policies

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "Spurious Regressions and Near-Multicollinearity, with an Application to Aid, Policies and Growth," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12078, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12078
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard, 2010. "Can statistics do without artefacts?," MPRA Paper 42867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005. "Aid Effectiveness on Growth. A Meta Study," Economics Working Papers 2005-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882.
    4. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2010. "Conditional aid effectiveness: A meta-study," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 391-410.
    5. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    6. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2010. "Inference on Time-Invariant Variables using Panel Data: A Pre-Test Estimator with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," PSE Working Papers hal-00492039, HAL.
    7. T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, July.
    8. Friedman, Lynn & Wall, Melanie, 2005. "Graphical Views of Suppression and Multicollinearity in Multiple Linear Regression," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 59, pages 127-136, May.
    9. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2010. "Can Statistics Do without Artefacts?," Working Papers hal-00750495, HAL.
    10. Aris Spanos, 2006. "Revisiting the omitted variables argument: Substantive vs. statistical adequacy," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 179-218.
    11. Samuel Bazzi & Michael A. Clemens, 2013. "Blunt Instruments: Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 152-186, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard, 2010. "Can statistics do without artefacts?," MPRA Paper 42867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "The Failure Of Financial Macroeconomics And What To Do About It," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80, pages 21-53, September.
    3. Azizi, Karim & Canry, Nicolas & Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Tinel, Bruno, 2013. "Government Solvency, Austerity and Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Keynesian Appraisal of Transversality and No Ponzi Game Conditions," EconStor Preprints 72550, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    4. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et " suppresseur classique ", aide au développement et croissance," Post-Print halshs-00674011, HAL.
    5. repec:spr:qualqt:v:52:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11135-017-0571-y is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pauline Grosjean & Rose Khattar, 2014. "It's Raining Men! Hallelujah?," Discussion Papers 2014-29, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    7. Karim Azizi & Nicolas Canry & Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Bruno Tinel, 2013. "Government Solvency, Austerity and Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Keynesian Appraisal of Transversality and No Ponzi Game Conditions," Working Papers hal-00818474, HAL.
    8. repec:spr:compst:v:32:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s00180-016-0687-x is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et « suppresseur classique », aide au développement et croissance," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(3), pages 557-567.
    10. Gille, Véronique, 2015. "Distribution of human capital and income: An empirical study on Indian States," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 239-256.
    11. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2010. "Can Statistics Do without Artefacts?," Working Papers hal-00750495, HAL.
    12. María Franco Chuaire & Carlos Scartascini & Mariano Tommasi, 2017. "State capacity and the quality of policies. Revisiting the relationship between openness and government size," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 133-156, July.
    13. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2012. "The impact of development aid on education and health: Survey and new evidence from dynamic models," MERIT Working Papers 057, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Near-Multicollinearity; student t-statistic; spurious regressions; Ceteris paribus; classical suppressor; parameter inflation factor; growth; foreign aid;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • P45 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages

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