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Spurious regressions and near-multicollinearity, with an application to aid, policies and growth

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  • Chatelain, Jean-Bernard
  • Ralf, Kirsten

Abstract

In multiple regressions, explanatory variables with simple correlation coefficients with the dependent variable below 0.1 in absolute value (such as aid/gross domestic product (GDP) with GDP growth) face a problem of parameter identification. They may have very large, statistically significant, estimated parameters which are unfortunately “outliers driven” and spurious. This is obtained by including another regressor which is highly correlated with the initial regressor, such as a lag, a square or interaction terms of this regressor. The analysis is applied on the “Gambia and Botswana outliers driven” Burnside and Dollar (2000) article which found that aid/GDP had an effect on growth only for countries achieving “good” macroeconomic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2014. "Spurious regressions and near-multicollinearity, with an application to aid, policies and growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 85-96.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:39:y:2014:i:pa:p:85-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.11.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard, 2010. "Can statistics do without artefacts?," MPRA Paper 42867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005. "Aid Effectiveness on Growth. A Meta Study," Economics Working Papers 2005-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882.
    4. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2010. "Can Statistics Do without Artefacts?," Working Papers hal-00750495, HAL.
    5. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2010. "Conditional aid effectiveness: A meta-study," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 391-410.
    6. Aris Spanos, 2006. "Revisiting the omitted variables argument: Substantive vs. statistical adequacy," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 179-218.
    7. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    8. Samuel Bazzi & Michael A. Clemens, 2013. "Blunt Instruments: Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 152-186, April.
    9. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2010. "Inference on Time-Invariant Variables using Panel Data: A Pre-Test Estimator with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," PSE Working Papers hal-00492039, HAL.
    10. T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, July.
    11. Friedman, Lynn & Wall, Melanie, 2005. "Graphical Views of Suppression and Multicollinearity in Multiple Linear Regression," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 59, pages 127-136, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard, 2010. "Can statistics do without artefacts?," MPRA Paper 42867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "The Failure Of Financial Macroeconomics And What To Do About It," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80, pages 21-53, September.
    3. Azizi, Karim & Canry, Nicolas & Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Tinel, Bruno, 2013. "Government Solvency, Austerity and Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Keynesian Appraisal of Transversality and No Ponzi Game Conditions," EconStor Preprints 72550, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. John Komlos, 2019. "Multicollinearity in the Presence of Errors-in-Variables Can Increase the Probability of Type-I Error," CESifo Working Paper Series 7459, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Pauline Grosjean & Rose Khattar, 2014. "It's Raining Men! Hallelujah?," Discussion Papers 2014-29C, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    6. Karim Azizi & Nicolas Canry & Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Bruno Tinel, 2013. "Government Solvency, Austerity and Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Keynesian Appraisal of Transversality and No Ponzi Game Conditions," Working Papers hal-00818474, HAL.
    7. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et « suppresseur classique », aide au développement et croissance," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(3), pages 557-567.
    8. María Franco Chuaire & Carlos Scartascini & Mariano Tommasi, 2017. "State capacity and the quality of policies. Revisiting the relationship between openness and government size," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 133-156, July.
    9. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "The Failure of Financial Macroeconomics and What to Do About it," Post-Print halshs-00706777, HAL.
    10. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2012. "The impact of development aid on education and health: Survey and new evidence from dynamic models," MERIT Working Papers 057, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    11. repec:spr:compst:v:32:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s00180-016-0687-x is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gille, Véronique, 2015. "Distribution of human capital and income: An empirical study on Indian States," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 239-256.
    13. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et " suppresseur classique ", aide au développement et croissance," Post-Print halshs-00674011, HAL.
    14. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2010. "Can Statistics Do without Artefacts?," Working Papers hal-00750495, HAL.
    15. repec:spr:qualqt:v:52:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11135-017-0571-y is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spurious regressions; Parameter identification problem; Hypothesis testing; Unstable conditional independence; Near-multicollinearity; Aid-growth relationship;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • P45 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages

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