Spurious regressions and near-multicollinearity, with an application to aid, policies and growth
In multiple regressions, explanatory variables with simple correlation coefficients with the dependent variable below 0.1 in absolute value (such as aid/gross domestic product (GDP) with GDP growth) face a problem of parameter identification. They may have very large, statistically significant, estimated parameters which are unfortunately "outliers driven" and spurious. This is obtained by including another regressor which is highly correlated with the initial regressor, such as a lag, a square or interaction terms of this regressor. The analysis is applied on the "Gambia and Botswana outliers driven" Burnside and Dollar  article which found that aid/GDP had an effect on growth only for countries achieving "good" macroeconomic policies.
Volume (Year): (2014)
Issue (Month): ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Düsternbrooker Weg 120, 24105 Kiel / Neuer Jungfernstieg 21, 20354 Hamburg|
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814-520
Web page: http://www.econstor.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Aris Spanos, 2006. "Revisiting the omitted variables argument: Substantive vs. statistical adequacy," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 179-218.
- Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2010.
"Can Statistics Do without Artefacts?,"
Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Burnside, Craig & Dollar, David, 1997.
"Aid, policies, and growth,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1777, The World Bank.
- Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005.
"Conditional Aid Effectiveness. A Meta Study,"
Economics Working Papers
2005-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005. "Aid Effectiveness on Growth. A Meta Study," Economics Working Papers 2005-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Friedman, Lynn & Wall, Melanie, 2005. "Graphical Views of Suppression and Multicollinearity in Multiple Linear Regression," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 59, pages 127-136, May.
- Hoover,Kevin D., 2001.
"Causality in Macroeconomics,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882, October.
- T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, 07.
- repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00750495 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2010. "Inference on Time-Invariant Variables using Panel Data: A Pre-Test Estimator with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," PSE Working Papers hal-00492039, HAL.
- Samuel Bazzi & Michael A. Clemens, 2013. "Blunt Instruments: Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 152-86, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:96630. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.