Spurious regressions and near-multicollinearity, with an application to aid, policies and growth
In multiple regressions, explanatory variables with simple correlation coefficients with the dependent variable below 0.1 in absolute value (such as aid/gross domestic product (GDP) with GDP growth) face a problem of parameter identification. They may have very large, statistically significant, estimated parameters which are unfortunately "outliers driven" and spurious. This is obtained by including another regressor which is highly correlated with the initial regressor, such as a lag, a square or interaction terms of this regressor. The analysis is applied on the "Gambia and Botswana outliers driven" Burnside and Dollar  article which found that aid/GDP had an effect on growth only for countries achieving "good" macroeconomic policies.
Volume (Year): (2014)
Issue (Month): ()
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- David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000.
"Aid, Policies, and Growth,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
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- Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005.
"Conditional Aid Effectiveness. A Meta Study,"
Economics Working Papers
2005-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
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- Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2010. "Can Statistics Do without Artefacts?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00750495, HAL.
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- repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00750495 is not listed on IDEAS
- Samuel Bazzi & Michael A. Clemens, 2013. "Blunt Instruments: Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 152-86, April.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521002882 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521452175 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005. "Aid Effectiveness on Growth. A Meta Study," Economics Working Papers 2005-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
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