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Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et « suppresseur classique », aide au développement et croissance

  • Jean-Bernard Chatelain
  • Kirsten Ralf

This paper shows that a multiple regression with two highly correlated explanatory variables, both of them with a near zero correlation with the dependent variable may correspond to a spurious regression or to a homeostatic model, with estimates highly sensible to outliers. The regression method does not allow how to decide which one of the two models is relevant. Statistical significance of the (very high) parameters is easily obtained, as shown doing Monte Carlo simulations. An example is provided by the Burnside and Dollar [2000] article on aid, policies and growth. Classification JEL : C12, C18, C52, F35, O47

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 63 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 557-567

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_633_0557
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique.htm

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  1. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2010. "Conditional aid effectiveness: A meta-study," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 391-410.
  2. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2014. "Spurious regressions and near-multicollinearity, with an application to aid, policies and growth," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 85-96.
  3. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521002882 is not listed on IDEAS
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