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Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model - A Survey with the Application to the Japanese Macroeconomic Data -

Author

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  • Jouchi Nakajima
  • Toshiaki Watanabe

Abstract

The time-varying vector autoregressive (VAR) model has recently attracted attention as a time series model for the analysis of macroeconomic variables and developed in various directions. This article explains this model and surveys the recent development of its structure and empirical applications. Since this model is usually estimated using a Bayesian method via the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), we explain this estimation method in detail. We also provide empirical results based on the Japanese macroeconomic data and show the superior forecasting performance of the time-varying VAR model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jouchi Nakajima & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2012. "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model - A Survey with the Application to the Japanese Macroeconomic Data -," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-232, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd12-232
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    File URL: http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/research/discussion/2008/pdf/gd12-232.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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