Volatility Swings in the US Financial Markets
Empirical evidence shows that the dynamics of high frequency–based measures of volatility exhibit persistence and occasional abrupt changes in the average level. By looking at volatility measures for major indices, we notice similar patterns (including jumps at about the same time), with stronger similarities, the higher the degree of company capitalization represented in the indices. We adopt the recent Markov Switching Asymmetric Multiplicative Error Model to model the dynamics of the conditional expectation of realized volatility. This allows us to address the issues of a slow moving average level of volatility and of different dynamics across regimes. An extension sees a more flexible model combining the characteristics of Markov Switching and smooth transition dynamics.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2012|
|Date of revision:||Jul 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Viale G.B. Morgagni, 59 - I-50134 Firenze - Italy|
Phone: +39 055 2751500
Fax: +39 055 2751525
Web page: http://www.disia.unifi.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gallo, Giampiero M. & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008.
"Volatility spillovers, interdependence and comovements: A Markov Switching approach,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,
Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3011-3026, February.
- Giampiero Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2007. "Volatility Spillovers, Interdependence and Comovements: A Markov Switching Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_11, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Robert Engle, 2002. "New frontiers for arch models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 425-446.
- Engle, Robert F. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006.
"A multiple indicators model for volatility using intra-daily data,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 3-27.
- Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2003. "A Multiple Indicators Model for Volatility Using Intra-Daily Data," NBER Working Papers 10117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2003. "A Multiple Indicators Model For Volatility Using Intra-Daily Data," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2003_07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- E. Otranto, 2011. "Classification of Volatility in Presence of Changes in Model Parameters," Working Paper CRENoS 201113, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2003.
"On The Determination Of The Number Of Regimes In Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 237-252, 03.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2002. "On the Determination of the Number of Regimes in Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 83, Society for Computational Economics.
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
- E. Otranto, 2012. "The Markov Switching Asymmetric Multiplicative Error Model," Working Paper CRENoS 201205, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo & Margherita Velucchi, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in East Asian Financial Markets: A Mem-Based Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 222-223, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2012_03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francesco Calvori)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.