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MCMC Estimation of Extended Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filtering Models

  • Wolfgang Polasek

    ()

    (Vienna Institute for Advanced Studies)

The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) method was originally developed to smooth time series, i.e. to get a smooth (long-term) component. We show that the HP smoother can be viewed as a Bayesian linear model with a strong prior for the smoothness component. Extending this Bayesian approach in a linear model set-up is possible with a conjugate and a nonconjugate model using MCMC. The Bayesian HP smoothing model is also extended to a spatial smoothing model. We have to define spatial neighbors for each observation and we can in a similar way use a smoothness prior as for the HP filter in time series. The new smoothing approaches are applied to the (textbook) airline passenger data for time series and to the problem of smoothing spatial regional data. This new approach can be used for a new class of model-based smoothers for time series and spatial models.

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Article provided by European Association Comenius - EACO in its journal DANUBE: Law and Economics Review.

Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 25-52

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Handle: RePEc:cmn:journl:y:2012:i:1:p:25-52
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  1. Wolfgang Polasek, 2011. "MCMC Estimation of Extended Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filtering Models," Working Paper Series 25_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  2. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CESifo Working Paper Series 479, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Girardin, Michel, 1989. "Business cycles in Switzerland : A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, January.
  4. Ravn, Morten O., 1997. "International business cycles in theory and in practice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 255-283, April.
  5. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  6. Polasek, Wolfgang & Sellner, Richard, 2011. "Does Globalization Affect Regional Growth? Evidence for NUTS-2 Regions in EU-27," Economics Series 266, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  7. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November.
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