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A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation

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Cited by:

  1. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2018. "Capital Flows in an Aging World," SciencePo Working papers hal-03393116, HAL.
  2. Ho, Paul, 2024. "Estimating the effects of demographics on interest rates: A robust Bayesian perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  3. Ansgar Rannenberg, 2019. "Inequality, the risk of secular stagnation and the increase in household deb," Working Paper Research 375, National Bank of Belgium.
  4. Ivan Todorov, 2025. "Еconomic Policy Under Global Flight to Safe Assets and Effective Lower Bound: the Bulgarian Prospects," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 1200-1218, Desember.
  5. Alberto Botta & Ben Tippet, 2020. "Secular stagnation and core-periphery uneven development in post-crisis eurozone," Working Papers PKWP2002, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
  6. Sergio Salas, 2022. "A liquidity crunch in an endogenous growth model with human capital," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(3), pages 1199-1238, January.
  7. Jangho Yang & Brian Cozzarin & Torsten Heinrich, 2025. "Productivity dispersion and firm growth in Canada," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 35-70, January.
  8. Pablo Cuba-Borda & Sanjay R. Singh, 2024. "Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 389-416, July.
  9. Melissa van Rensburg, 2023. "Long-run trends in New Zealand’s real neutral interest rate," Treasury Analytical Notes Series an23/05, New Zealand Treasury.
  10. Basso, Henrique S. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2021. "From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 833-847.
  11. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "Indebted Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2243-2307.
  12. Alexandra Glazova & Maxim Nevalennyi & Andrey Sinyakov, 2025. "An Educational Model of a Small Open Economy for Monetary Policy Analysis (with examples from Bank of Russia’s practice)," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps154, Bank of Russia.
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  15. Mariam Camarero & Gilles Dufrénot & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "How do inequalities affect the natural interest rate, and how do they impact monetary policy? Comparing Germany, Japan and the US," Working Papers halshs-03191667, HAL.
  16. Duffy, James A. & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & Wycherley, Sam, 2025. "Cointegration with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 252(PA).
  17. Andrea Borsato, 2022. "An agent-based model for Secular Stagnation in the USA: theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 1345-1389, September.
  18. Georgii Riabov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Policy with stochastic hysteresis," Papers 2104.10225, arXiv.org.
  19. Leon Podkaminer, 2021. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: macroeconomics at a dead end," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 97-122.
  20. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2022. "Global natural projections," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 949-990, November.
  21. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2023. "Rising Longevity, Increasing the Retirement Age, and the Consequences for Knowledge‐based Long‐run Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 39-64, January.
  22. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
  23. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2026. "The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations," KAE Working Papers 2026-121, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
  24. Takemasa Oda, 2024. "A Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Deflation in an Aging Economy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  25. Andrea Caggese & Ander Pérez-Orive, 2017. "Capital Misallocation and Secular Stagnation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-009, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Kazuma Inagakli, & Yoshiyasu Ono & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2022. "Accounting for the slowdown in output growth after the Great Recession: A wealth preference approach," ISER Discussion Paper 1174r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka, revised Mar 2023.
  27. Gross, Isaac & Hansen, James, 2021. "Optimal policy design in nonlinear DSGE models: An n-order accurate approximation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  28. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2021. "Inflation and demography through time," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  29. Jaime Alberto Londo~no, 2026. "Short-horizon Duesenberry Equilibrium," Papers 2603.16108, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
  30. Billi, Roberto & Galí, Jordi & Nakov, Anton, 2024. "Optimal monetary policy with r∗<0," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  31. Ashwin, Julian & Beaudry, Paul & Ellison, Martin, 2025. "Neural network learning for nonlinear economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  32. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2023. "Structural unemployment, underemployment, and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
  33. Irina Aleksandrovna Mandych* & Olga Vladimirovna Krasnyanskaya & Anna Viktorovna Bykova & Sergey Egorovich Hodak & Ekaterina Pavlovna Petukhova, 2018. "The Issue of Ensuring Economic Growth in Russia and Innovatizing the Russian Economy," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, pages 188-194:3.
  34. Jaimes, Richard & Westerhout, Ed, 2023. "Optimal policies in an ageing society," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
  35. Mark Setterfield, 2026. "Wage stagnation and secular stagnation," Working Papers 2601, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
  36. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
  37. Domenico Depalo & Claire Giordano, 2025. "Demography and the current account: a case-study of Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 969, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  38. Alex Clymo, 2018. "Firm Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," 2018 Meeting Papers 912, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  39. Paul Beaudry & Paolo Cavallino & Tim Willems, 2024. "Monetary Policy Along the Yield Curve: Why Can Central Banks Affect Long-Term Real Rates?," NBER Working Papers 32511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2019. "A critical analysis of the secular stagnation theory," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0245, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  41. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Mazin, Felipe & Nechio, Fernanda, 2025. "Reprint of: Demographics and real interest rates across countries and over time," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  42. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
  43. Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, 2021. "Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2717-2749, November.
  44. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
  45. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2018. "The enduring link between demography and inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2018, Bank of Finland.
  46. Cai, Zhifeng, 2021. "Secular stagnation, financial frictions, and land prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 66-90.
  47. Matthew Rognlie & Andrei Shleifer & Alp Simsek, 2018. "Investment Hangover and the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 113-153, April.
  48. Ansgar Rannenberg, 2023. "The Rise in Inequality, the Decline in the Natural Interest Rate, and the Increase in Household Debt," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 1-93, June.
  49. John C. Williams, 2019. "When the Facts Change…: remarks at the 9th High-Level Conference on the International Monetary System, Zürich, Switzerland," Speech 320, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  50. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "Could an economy get stuck in a rational pessimism bubble? The case of Japan," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  51. Zhang, Xiaoge, 2022. "Belief-driven growth slowdowns and zero-bounded risk-free rate," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  52. Dennis Bonam, 2020. "A convenient truth: The convenience yield, low interest rates and implications for fiscal policy," Working Papers 700, DNB.
  53. Jakir Hussain Mazumder & Bharat Diwakar, 2026. "Income inequality and the aging-inflation nexus: evidence from emerging and developing economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 1-36, February.
  54. Bertrand Candelon & Alina Carare & Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Jing Lu, 2020. "The post-crises output growth effects in a globalized economy," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 139-158.
  55. Wolf, Martin & Fornaro, Luca, 2021. "Monetary Policy in the Age of Automation," CEPR Discussion Papers 16416, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  56. Joseph Kopecky & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium," NBER Working Papers 26943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Marie Claude Kamar & Riccardo Magnani, 2022. "Population ageing and labor market frictions. An OLG model applied to Lebanon," Working Papers 3, SITES.
  58. Anton Nakov & Roberto M. Billi & Jordi Galí, 2022. "Optimal Monetary Policy with r," Working Papers 1333, Barcelona School of Economics.
  59. Matthias Schlegl, 2018. "Secular Stagnation in an Economy with Land," ISER Discussion Paper 1032, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
  60. Gutiérrez, Germán & Jones, Callum & Philippon, Thomas, 2021. "Entry costs and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 77-91.
  61. Ichiro Fukunaga & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yoichi Ueno, 2024. "Japan's Economy and Prices over the Past 25 Years: Past Discussions and Recent Issues," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-14, Bank of Japan.
  62. Yuta Takahashi & Naoki Takayama, 2021. "Firm Growth, Financial Constraints, andPolicy-Based Finance," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1171, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  63. Héctor J. Villarreal, 2026. "Fiscal Dominance and Asset Price Redistribution," Working Paper Series of the School of Government and Public Transformation 30, School of Governement and Public Transformation.
  64. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Monetary policy, financial uncertainty, and secular stagnation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  65. Pierre L Siklos, 2022. "Monetary, fiscal and demographic interactions in Japan: impact and a comparative assessment," Working Papers halshs-03776217, HAL.
  66. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298.
  67. Wolf, Martin, 2020. "Pecuniary externalities in economies with downward wage rigidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 219-235.
  68. Joseph Kopecky & Giacomo Mangiante, 2025. "Monetary Policy Goes Boomer: The Effect of Population Age Structure on Policy Transmission," Trinity Economics Papers tep1725, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  69. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "The Age for Austerity? Population Age Structure and Fiscal Multipliers," Trinity Economics Papers tep1621, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
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  71. Joseph Kopecky Author-1-Name-First: Joseph Author-1-Name-Last: Kopecky, 2023. "Growing older and growing apart? Population age structure and trade," Trinity Economics Papers tep0423, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  72. Hannu Laurila & Jukka Ilomäki, 2020. "Inflation and Risky Investments," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-10, December.
  73. Fujita, Shigeru & Fujiwara, Ippei, 2023. "Aging and the real interest rate in Japan: A labor market channel," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  74. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
  75. Clayton, Christopher & Schaab, Andreas, 2022. "A Theory of Dynamic Inflation Targets," TSE Working Papers 22-1389, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  76. Alistair Macaulay & Chenchuan Shi, 2026. "Ambiguity Aversion, Portfolio Choice, and Life Expectancy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 67(2), pages 633-655, May.
  77. Michael T. Kiley, 2018. "Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(S1), pages 21-49, September.
  78. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Okumura, Koki, 2020. "Regional convergence under declining population: The case of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  79. Mikael Juselius & Előd Takáts, 2018. "The enduring link between demography and inflation," BIS Working Papers 722, Bank for International Settlements.
  80. Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Papetti, Andrea, 2020. "Demographics and inflation in the euro area: a two-sector new Keynesian perspective," Working Paper Series 2382, European Central Bank.
  81. Jacopo Bonchi, 2020. "Natural Interest Rate and Asset Price Bubbles: How Bubbles Counteract Low Interest Rates," Working Papers 3/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
  82. Luis Bauluz & Filip Novokmet & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "The Anatomy of the Global Saving Glut," Working Papers halshs-03693216, HAL.
  83. Ogawa, Shogo, 2022. "Survey of non-Walrasian disequilibrium economic theory," MPRA Paper 115011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  84. Seth G. Benzell & Erik Brynjolfsson, 2019. "Digital Abundance and Scarce Genius: Implications for Wages, Interest Rates, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 25585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  85. Matthew Rognlie & Adrien Auclert, 2016. "Inequality and Aggregate Demand," 2016 Meeting Papers 1353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  87. Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2019. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown," Research Discussion Papers 21/2019, Bank of Finland.
  88. Bruno Ćorić & Vladimir Šimić, 2021. "Economic disasters and aggregate investment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3087-3124, December.
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  90. Daiji KAWAGUCHI & Sagiri KITAO & Manabu NOSE, 2025. "CEO Age and Technology Adoption: Network effects in e-commerce propagation in Japan," Discussion papers 25023, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  91. Illing, Gerhard & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2018. "Credit booms, debt overhang and secular stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 78-104.
  92. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2022. "Why So Low for So Long? A Long-Term View of Real Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 47-87, September.
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  98. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2023. "Capital flows in an aging world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
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  102. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  103. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben, 2020. "The roots of a divided eurozone: rigid labour markets or asymmetric technology-macroeconomic regimes?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 30958, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
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  105. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging," Trinity Economics Papers tep0721, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2021.
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  137. Wolf, Martin, 2020. "Pecuniary externalities in economies with downward wage rigidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 219-235.
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