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The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium

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  • Joseph Kopecky
  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

Population aging has been linked to global declines in real interest rates. A similar trend is seen for equity risk premia, which are on the rise. An existing literature can explain part of the declining trend in safe rates using demographics, but has no mechanism to speak to trends in relative returns on different assets. We calibrate a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model with equity markets and aggregate risk, and we show that aging demographics can simultaneously account for both the majority of a downward trend in the risk free rate, while also increasing the return premium attached to risky assets. This is because the life-cycle savings dynamics that have been well documented exert less pressure on risky assets as older households shift away from risk. Under reasonable calibrations we find declines in the safe rate that are considerably larger than most existing estimates between the years 1990 and 2017. We are also able to account for most of the rise in the equity risk premium. Projecting forward to 2050 we show that persistent demographic forces will continue push the risk free rate further into negative territory, while the equity risk premium remains elevated.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Kopecky & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium," NBER Working Papers 26943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26943
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2021-12-18 17:50:02
    2. The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2020-04-20 14:54:02

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    Cited by:

    1. Amaral, Pedro S., 2023. "The demographic transition and the asset supply channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging," Trinity Economics Papers tep0721, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    3. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2020. "The Expected Return on Risky Assets: International Long-run Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Joseph Kopecky Author-1-Name-First: Joseph Author-1-Name-Last: Kopecky, 2023. "Population age structure and secular stagnation: Evidence from long run data," Trinity Economics Papers tep0526, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    5. Adrien Auclert & Hannes Malmberg & Frederic Martenet & Matthew Rognlie, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 29161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kopecky, Joseph, 2023. "Population age structure and secular stagnation: Evidence from long run data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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