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Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis

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  • Keiichiro KOBAYASHI
  • Kozo Ueda

Abstract

In this study, we explain the driving forces behind the secular stagnation associated with a persistent decrease in interest rates by employing a model that incorporates a crisis risk triggered by government debt accumulation. The model shows that fear of large-scale capital taxation and capital misallocation in future debt crises accounts for almost half the economic slowdown in Japan over the past two decades. Over the same period, the government bond yield declines, because a decrease in the expected returns on capital makes investing in government bonds more attractive than investing in capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Keiichiro KOBAYASHI & Kozo Ueda, 2020. "Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis," CIGS Working Paper Series 20-008E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnn:wpaper:20-008e
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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